با همکاری مشترک دانشگاه پیام نور و انجمن اقتصاد انرژی ایران

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

3 دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، سیستان و بلوچستان، ایران

چکیده

هدف این مقاله اولاً بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و ثانیاً تخمین این اثرات در بازه زمانی 1362 تا 1393 است. در این راستا ابتدا با استفاده از آزمون‌های علّیت هشیائو و تودا-یاماموتو رابطه علّیت میان سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی با متغیرهای ریسک سیاسی، تولید ناخالص  داخلی، شاخص باز بودن فضای تجاری، تورم و نرخ ارز بررسی می‌شود. سپس با استفاده از یک الگوی رگرسیون انتقال ملایم به تخمین اثر عوامل تعیین کننده‌ سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی پرداخته می‌شود. نتایج نشان می‌دهند متغیرهای ریسک سیاسی، تولید ناخالص داخلی و نرخ ارز علّت آماری سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی هستند، اما شاخص باز بودن فضای تجاری و تورم، اثر معناداری بر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی ندارند. همچنین ضمن تأیید اثر غیرخطی مدل، نشان داده شد که تابع سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در قالب یک ساختار دو رژیمی با مقدار آستانه‌ای حدود 2000 میلیون دلار قابل بررسی است. ریسک سیاسی در هر دو رژیم دارای اثر منفی بر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی است؛ اما با ورود از رژیم پایین به رژیم بالا میزان حساسیت کاهش می‌یابد. این رابطه در مورد تولید ناخالص داخلی برعکس است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Political Risk on Foreign Direct Investment in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Omolbanin Jalali 1
  • Habib Ansari Samani 2
  • Madjid Hatefi Madjumerd 3

1 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Department of Economics, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

3 Ph.D in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran

چکیده [English]

The aim of this study at first is to study the effective factors of FDI and then the estimation of these effects during 1983-2014. In this regard the causality relationship between FDI and political risk, GDP, trade openness index, inflation and exchange rate, has been investigated through Hsiao and Toda-Yamamoto tests. Then using a smooth transition regression model, the effect of determinants of foreign direct investment will estimated. In addition, results show that political risk, GDP and exchange rate are statistical cause of FDI, but trade openness index and inflation have no significant effect on foreign direct investment. In addition, the nonlinearity of model was also verified. The model showed that the FDI function can be investigated in the form of a structure with a two regime with threshold value of $ 2,000 million. Political risk in both regimes has a negative effect on foreign direct investment, but with the arrival to high regime, the sensitivity will be reduced. This relationship between the GDP and FDI is opposite.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Political Risk
  • Foreign Direct Investment
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