با همکاری مشترک دانشگاه پیام نور و انجمن اقتصاد انرژی ایران

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ولی عصر (عج) رفسنجان، رفسنجان، ایران.

چکیده

در این مطالعه با بررسی واکنش نامتقارن ارزش افزوده کل اقتصاد و زیر بخش‌های اقتصادی به تغییرات مثبت و منفی رانت نفت‌خام، دیدگاه جدیدی در ارتباط با فرضیه پدیده نفرین نفت‌خام در اقتصاد ایران ارائه شد. با استفاده از داده‌های سالانه 1367 تا 1401 و بهره‌گیری از یک مدل خودتوضیح با وقفه‌های توزیعی غیرخطی، نتایج نشان داد که ارزش افزوده کل اقتصاد واکنش نامتقارنی به تغییرات مثبت و منفی رانت نفت‌خام صرفاً در بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد. اگرچه این عدم تقارن در برخی از زیر بخش‌ها‌ نیز تأیید شد، اما ماهیت واکنش زیر بخش‌های اقتصادی به تغییرات رانت نفت به طور قابل توجهی متفاوت است. نتایج مطالعه نشان از تأیید فرضیه نفرین منابع از کانال مکانیسم بیماری هلندی در بخش صنایع و تولید اقتصاد ایران دارد. بنابراین حتی اگر تنوع بخشی در اقتصاد به عنوان یک برنامه سیاستی کلیدی برای کاهش سطح وابستگی به رانت نفت‌خام در اقتصاد ایران باقی بماند، سیاست‌گذاران باید تأثیر زیان‌بار کاهش رانت نفت‌خام را بر رشد برخی از بخش‌های اقتصادی در نظر بگیرند. بنابراین، اثربخشی هر سیاست متنوع‌سازی عمدتاً به این وابسته است که آیا سیاست‌گذاران درک کاملی از واکنش ناهمگون بخش‌های اقتصادی به تکانه‌های رانت نفت‌خام دارند یا خیر.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Asymmetric Effects of Oil Rent on Sector-Level Economic Growth: the Perspective of the Oil Curse With an Emphasis on the Dutch Disease

نویسنده [English]

  • Abbas memarzadeh

Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan, Iran.

چکیده [English]

In this study, by considering the asymmetric response of the aggregate and sector-level value-added to the positive and negative oil rent shocks, a new insight into the oil curse hypothesis is provided for the case of Iran. Using annual data from 1988 to 2022 and the NARDL model, the findings indicate that the aggregate growth shows an asymmetric reaction to positive and negative oil rent shocks just in the long run. Although this asymmetry is also confirmed for sector-level growth, the instinct of that varies significantly among them. Our analysis supports the oil curse hypothesis in Iran, and this curse channels via the Dutch Disease mechanism in the manufacturing sector. So, even though diversification remains a key policy agenda to decrease the level of oil rent dependence, policymakers should consider the harmful impact of oil rent decrease on the growth of certain economic sectors. Therefore, the effectiveness of any diversification policy mainly depends on whether the policy makers have a full understanding of the heterogeneous response of economic sectors to crude oil rent shocks.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Oil Curse
  • Oil Shocks
  • Dutch Disease
  • Nonlinear
  • Asymmetric
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