پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی

با همکاری مشترک دانشگاه پیام نور و انجمن اقتصاد انرژی ایران

درباره نشریه

اهداف و چشم انداز

اعضای هیات تحریریه

اصول اخلاقی انتشار مقاله

بانک ها و نمایه نامه ها

پیوندهای مفید

پرسش‌های متداول

فرایند پذیرش مقالات

اطلاعات آماری نشریه

اخبار و اعلانات

شماره جاری

بر اساس شماره‌های نشریه

بر اساس نویسندگان

بر اساس موضوعات

نمایه کلیدواژه ها

لیست داوران 1400

لیست داوران 1399

تحلیل اثرات اقتصادی تأمین مالی دولت از طریق انتشار اوراق بهادار اسلامی بر تورم، سرمایه گذاری، اشتغال و رشد اقتصادی

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 فارغ‌التحصیل دکتری اقتصاد مالی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه بانک و بیمه، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی مالی، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

طی دهه اخیر استفاده از اوراق مالی اسلامی به شکل انتشار اوراق جدید، تبدیل بدهی‌های غیراوراقی دولت به اوراق مالی، تهاتر بین بدهی‌های اوراقی دولت از طرف بخش غیربانکی به شبکه بانکی و از شبکه بانکی به بانک مرکزی افزایش یافته است. بر این اساس، پژوهش حاضر در پی تحلیل پیامدهای اقتصاد کلانی تامین مالی دولت جمهوری اسلامی ایران از دو طریق رویکرد سنتی (غیراوراقی) و انتشار اوراق بهادار اسلامی از طریق الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی DSGE بر متغیرهای اصلی اقتصادی از جمله تورم، سرمایه‌گذاری، اشتغال و رشد اقتصادی است. بدین منظور سعی شده است تا بر اساس مطالعات تجربی گذشته و داده‌های فصلی اقتصاد ایران طی دوره‌ زمانی (1: 1369-4: 1400) شبیه‌سازی انجام شده و توابع واکنش آنی متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان به شوک‌های بدهی‌های متعارف و اوراق مالی دولت به بانک مرکزی، شبکه بانکی و بخش غیربانکی بررسی شود. نتایج به‌دست آمده نشان می‌دهد؛ تامین مالی دولت با استفاده از بدهی‌های اوراقی به طور کلی سبب رشد سرمایه‌گذاری، جلوگیری از افزایش تورم نسبت به روش تامین مالی از طریق بدهی‌های غیراوراقی و ایجاد رشد اقتصادی خواهد شد. همچنین اثرات این امر بر اشتغال در بدهی‌های اوراقی دولت به شبکه بانکی و به بانک مرکزی مثبت و در بدهی‌های اوراقی دولت به بخش غیربانکی منفی ارزیابی می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the economic effects of government financing through the issuance of Islamic securities on inflation, investment, employment and economic growth

نویسندگان [English]

  • majid karimirizi 1
  • Mohammadhadi Sobhanian 2
  • Mohammad Qezelbash 3

1 Ph.D. in Financial Economics, Faculty of Economics, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Bank and Insurance, Faculty of Management, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

3 Ph.D. Student in Financial Engineering, Faculty of Accounting and Management, Allameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

During the last decade, the use of Islamic financial bonds in the form of issuing new bonds, converting government's non-debt debts into financial bonds, the clearing of government bond debts from the non-banking sector to the banking network and from the banking network to the central bank has increased. Based on this, the present research analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of financing the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran in two ways, the traditional approach (non-securities) and the issuance of Islamic securities through the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of DSGE on the main economic variables including inflation, investment , employment and economic growth. For this purpose, based on past experimental studies and seasonal data of Iran's economy during the period (1990:1 – 2021:4), simulation has been done and instantaneous reaction functions of macroeconomic variables to debt shocks. Conventional and financial bonds of the government to the central bank, banking network and the non-banking sector should be reviewed. The obtained results show; Financing the government by using debt securities will generally lead to investment growth, prevent the increase in inflation compared to the method of financing through non-debt debt, and create economic growth. Also, the effects of this on employment are assessed as positive in government bond debts to the banking network and to the central bank, and negative in government bond debts to the non-banking sector.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Financial securities
  • dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
  • economic variables
مراجع
Afshari, Z., Shirin Bakhsh Masuleh, S. & Beheshti, M. (2011). “Investigating Financial Stability in Iran”. Economic Research Journal, 12(45), 27-54. (In Persian).
Apere, O. T. (2014). “The Impact of Public Debt on Private Investment in Nigeria: Evidence from a Nonlinear Model”. International Journal of Research in Social Sciences, 4(2), 130-138.
Barkchian, M. & Ainian, M. (2013). “Identification and Dating of Business Cycles of Iranian Economy”. Monetary and Banking Research, 20(2), 161-194. (In Persian).
Barro, R. J. (1974‎). “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”. Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095-1117.
Baum, A., Checherita-Westphal, C. & Rother, P. (2012‎). “Debt and Growth: New Evidence for the Euro Area”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 32(c), 809–821.
Becker, T. (1995). “Government Debt and Private Consumption: Theory and Evidence”. The Economic Research Institute Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Paper No 71, 1-21.
Berg, A., Mirzoev, T., Portillo, R. &. Zanna. L. F. (2010). “The Short- Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows: Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy”. IMF Working Paper 10/65.
Bouakez, H., Cardia, E. & Ruge- Murica. F. (2009). “The Transmission of Monetary Policy in a Multi- Sector Economy”. Internanational Economic Review, 50(4), 1243-1266.
Calvo, G. (1983). “Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, 383-98.
Checherita-Westphal, C. & Rother. P. (2012‎). “The Impact of High Government Debt on Economic Growth and Its Channels: An Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area”. European Economic Review, 56(7), 1392ـ1405.
Chen, Ch. C., Yaob, S., Hue, P. & Linf, Y. (2016). “Optimal Government Investment and Public Debt in an Economic Growth Model”. China Economic Review, Available online 17 August 2016; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2016.08.005
Christiano, L. J. & Fitzgerald, T. J. (2000). “Understanding the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (No. w7668)”. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Christiano, L. J.‎, Eichenbaum, M. & Evans, C. L. (2005). “Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy”. Journal of Political Economy, 113, 1-45.
Falahati, A., Fatahi, S., Heydari Dizgarani, A. & Shokri, N. (2016). “Investigating Financial Stability and Transient Financial Shocks in Iran's Economy”. Financial Economics (Financial Economics and Development), 11(41), 154-123. (In Persian).
Fatahi, S., Heydari Dizgarani, A. & Askari, E. (2013). “Investigating the Sustainability of Government Debt in Iran's Economy”. Financial and Economic Policy Quarterly, 2(6). 86-67. (In Persian).
Gelain, P. & Kulikov, D. (2009). “An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Estonia”. Eesti Pank Bank of Estonia, Working Paper Series.
Ghosh, A. R., Kim, J. I., Mendoza, E. G., Ostry, J. D. &. Qureshi, M. S. (2012‎). “Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies”. Economic Journal, 123(566), F4–F30.
Greiner, A. (2013‎). “Sustainable Public Debt and Economic Growth Under Wage Rigidity”. Metroeconomica, 64(2), 272-292.
Jafari Samimi, A., Karimi, S. & Montazeri Shurakchali, J. (2016). “Iran's Government Debt Sustainability: Evidence from the Threshold Regression Model”. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Modeling, 30(2), 31-61. (In Persian).
Khiyabani, N. & Amiri, H. (2015). “The Position of Iran's Monetary and Financial Policies With an Emphasis on the Oil Sector Using DSGE Models”. Economic Research Quarterly, 14(54), 133-173. (In Persian).
Kim, J. (1997). “Constructing and Estimating a Realistic Optimizing Model of Monetary Policy”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 45, 329-359.
Manzoor, D. & Taghipour, S. (2014). “Setting Up a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model for a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy: the Case Study of Iran”. Economic Research and Policy Quarterly, 23(75), 7-44. (In Persian).
Mishkin, F. S. (2007). “The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets”. Pearson Education.
Minea, A. & Parent. A. (2012‎). “Is High Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth? Reinhart and Rogoff and Some Complex Nonlinearities”. Working Papers 8, Association Francaise De Cliometrie.
Mohammadi, T. & Mirabizadeh, M. (2015). “Analysis of the Effect of Oil Revenues on Iran's Economy: Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Model”. Quantitative Economics Quarterly, 13(52), 45-74. (In Persian).
Mousaviyan, S. A. (2011). “Islamic Capital Market”. Tehran: Islamic Culture and Thought Research Institute Publishing Organization. (In Persian).
Mwikali Matiti, C. (2013‎). “The Effect of Selected Determinants on Public Debt in Kenya”. A Research Project Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirement for The Award of the Degree of Master of Science Finance, University of Nairobi, Kenya.
Nahidi Amirkhiz, M., Faiza Zariah, M., Paftani Eskoui, A. & Ranjpour, R. (2022). “Analysis of the Impact of Islamic Financing Tools on Monetary Policies in Iran based on Taylor's Rule: Quantile Approach”. Islamic Economics and Banking Quarterly, 42, 273-301. (In Persian).
Qobadi, S. & Kamijani, A. (2010). “Explaining the relationship Between Monetary Policy and Government Debt and Their Impact on Inflation and Economic Growth in Iran”. International Economic Studies, 5(21), 1-21. (In Persian).
Reinhart, C. M. & Rogoff, K. S. (2010‎). “Growth in a Time of Debt”. American Economic Review, 100(2), 573–578.
Peiris, S. J. & Saxegaard, M. (2010). “An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Mozambique”. IMF staff papers, 57(1), 256-280.
Rostam Zadeh, P. & Guderzi Farahani, Y. (2016). “Government Revenue Substitution Through Tax Revenues by Designing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model”. Economic Research (Sustainable Growth and Development), 4(17), 121-145. (In Persian).
Sadraei, M., Shahraki, M. & Tavaklian, H. (2019). “Investigating the Impact of Publishing Islamic Treasury Documents on the Financial Stability of the Iranian Government with the Approach of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model”. Economic Research and Policy Quarterly, 28(96), 333-396. (In Persian).
Salmani, Y. (2016). “The Role of the Government's Balance Sheet (the Role of the Size and Composition of the Government's Assets and Liabilities (Balance Sheet) in Iran's Economy)”. Doctoral Thesis, Tarbiat Modares University, Faculty of Economics and Management. (In Persian).
Salmani, Y., Yavari, K., Sahabi, B. & Asgharpour, H. (2016). “Short-Term and Long-Term Effects of Government Debt on Economic Growth in Iran”. Journal of Applied Economic Studies of Iran, 5(18), 81-107. (In Persian).
Sayadi, M., Danesh-Jaafari, D., Bahrami, J. & Rafei, M. (2014). “Providing a Framework for the Optimal Use of Oil Revenues In Iran; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach”. Planning and Budget Quarterly, 20(2), 21-58. (In Persian).
Sohaili, K., Naimi, M. & Karimi, M. (2017). “The Relationship between the Development of Islamic Financial Instruments (sukuk) and Economic Growth”. Islamic Economics Quarterly, 19(73), 217-238. (In Persian).
Smets, F. & Wouters, R. (2003). “An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area”. Journal of the European Economic Association, 1(5), 1123-1175.
Taherpour, J., Mohammadi, T. & Fardi Kalhorodi, R. (2018). “The Effect of Distribution of Banking Facilities on Iran's Economic Growth; With an Emphasis on Partnership and Exchange Contracts”. Islamic Economic Studies, 12(1), 151-176. (In Persian).
Tavakolian, H. & Komijani, A. (2011). “Monetary Policy Under Fiscal Dominance and Implicit Target Inflation in the form of a Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Iran's Economy”. Economic Research Quarterly, 3(8), 87-117. (In Persian).
Togo, E. (2007). “Coordinating Public Debt Management with Fiscal and Monetary Policies: an Analytical Framework”. 4369. World Bank Publications.
Tawhidi, M., Hakimian, M. & Ahmadvand, K. (2021). “Jurisprudential Analysis of the Structure of Sukuk Without Maturity in the Islamic Capital Market”. Islamic Economic Studies, 13(1), 376-401. (In Persian).
Vali-Beigi, H., Yavari, K., Ebrahimi, I. & Sobhani, B. (2016). “Analysis of the Effect of Monetary and Financial Policies on Foreign Trade in Iran Using the DSGE Approach”. Economic Policy Quarterly, 83, 1-34. (In Persian).
 
 
پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
دوره 14، شماره 55
تیر 1403
صفحه 72-53
فایل ها
سابقه مقاله
  • تاریخ دریافت: 05 شهریور 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 14 آبان 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 23 آبان 1402
هم رسانی
ارجاع به این مقاله
آمار