Ebrahim Nasirifar; Ebrahim Hojabr Kiani; Seyed Shamsodin Hossaini; Farhad Ghaffari
Abstract
The basic metals industry is one of the most important national production industries, which includes approximately 20 percent of the industrial productions as well as 13 percent of the employment in Iran's industry. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short-run and long-run and asymmetric ...
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The basic metals industry is one of the most important national production industries, which includes approximately 20 percent of the industrial productions as well as 13 percent of the employment in Iran's industry. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short-run and long-run and asymmetric effects of positive and negative monetary shocks through monetary policy transmission channels that including exchange rates, lending and credit and interest rates on the production and employment of this industry, which evaluated by Non-linear Auto Regressive Distribution Lag (NARDL) model, seasonally since 1997 to 2018. The effects of monetary shocks are classified in to two groups: positive and negative shocks by using Hodrick-Prescott filter. The outputs indicate that the monetary shocks are more effective on the production of basic metals industry than its employment in a long- run. Also effects of negative monetary shocks on the employment in this industry are more considerable than positive shocks during a short-run. In the end, the asymmetric effect of monetary shocks on the production of this industry is confirmed.
hamid khavari; Mohammad Ali Falahi; Narges Salehnia
Abstract
In Iran, oil supplies the needed fuel and is the main source of foreign exchange earnings. Thereby, any volatility in oil prices will affect Iran's foreign exchange earnings at first and economic growth through time. This study, using Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) model, investigates the effects ...
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In Iran, oil supplies the needed fuel and is the main source of foreign exchange earnings. Thereby, any volatility in oil prices will affect Iran's foreign exchange earnings at first and economic growth through time. This study, using Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) model, investigates the effects of oil price volatility on economic growth of Iran through some institutional, monetary and financial variables during the period 1981-2017. The results show that the impulse of oil price volatility has a negative reaction from the growth of production. The index of democracy's reaction to the oil volatility is negative and, given its direct relation to production growth, overall production growth is reduced. Similarly, as for the government expenditures, it leads to reduced production growth. But the M2 has a positive reaction to the volatility of world crude oil prices and also has a positive effect on the production growth in the short run. The results also show that the most important variable affecting production growth changes in both the short and long run is the impact of government expenditures changes. Then, for achieving sustainable growth and using private sector dynamics, the assignment of public sector companies to the private sector based on the Article 44 of the Constitution should be followed.
Anita Azimi hosseini; Beitollah Akbari Moghaddam; Morteza Asadi
Abstract
This study was conducted to examine business cycles and identify significant factors affecting these cycles using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) in presence of institutional, political and global factors in five oil exporting countries including Canada, Iran, Nigeria, Norway and Venezuela during ...
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This study was conducted to examine business cycles and identify significant factors affecting these cycles using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) in presence of institutional, political and global factors in five oil exporting countries including Canada, Iran, Nigeria, Norway and Venezuela during 1995-2016. The results of Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVDs) indicated that short-term GDP had the maximum value in justifying instability. In long term, the role of GDP was decreased due to increasing role of other variables. so that at the end of periods except Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela oil shock in Canada and financial shock in Norway are the reasons for the business cycles. Moreover, findings show that political and institutional factors have changed the role of shocks and impulses. so that the impact of effective shock has decreased in instability during long term. Political and institutional factors had the considerable role in Iran and Norway, respectively. It is suggested that policymakers, before deciding on policies, first by the model used in this research examine economic and non-economic variables affecting the business cycle, and then apply appropriate monetary and fiscal policies.
Rouollah abedkhani; Seyed Nematollah mousavi; Sharareh Majdzadeh Tabatabai
Abstract
Oil revenues and taxes, respectively, are the first and second sources of government revenues in Iran's economy, with changes in their volume having significant effects on production, employment and ultimately, economic growth, which are the major objectives of the economy. The purpose of this paper ...
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Oil revenues and taxes, respectively, are the first and second sources of government revenues in Iran's economy, with changes in their volume having significant effects on production, employment and ultimately, economic growth, which are the major objectives of the economy. The purpose of this paper was to assess the effects of tax shock on macroeconomic variables in an oil economy with the DSGE model approach. Estimation of model parameters was performed using seasonal adjustment time series data for the period of 1989 to 2017. The results indicate that a short-term tax shock has a negative effect on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth and consumption, but in the long run, with an increase in tax revenue, GDP growth and, consequently, consumption and investment in the economy have increased. In addition, the results reflect the fact that the effect of oil revenues alone on economic growth is positive, but with the introduction of explanatory variables, the amount of capital accumulation, due to the effect of oil revenues on this variable (effective mechanisms), has been negative.
Elham Nobahar; Fahmideh Ghorbani
Abstract
Migration is one of the main drivers of population changes and has many positive and negative effects in short and long term, and these impacts change the social and economic structure within the migrant areas. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between net migration, income ...
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Migration is one of the main drivers of population changes and has many positive and negative effects in short and long term, and these impacts change the social and economic structure within the migrant areas. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between net migration, income inequality and poverty in Iran. In this study, spatial causality method was used to consider the spatial characteristics of variables. The statistical population includes all the cities of Iran during the period 2006-2016. The results of this study show that the causality between net migration and income inequality is unilateral, from net migration to income inequality. Also, estimation of income inequality model by using spatial econometric method shows that the relationship between net migration and income inequality is inverse and significant. In other words, migration increases income inequality in origin cities and reduces income inequality in destination cities. The result of the spatial causality test between net migration and poverty shows that there is no causal relationship between the two variables at the study period.
reza zamani; masoud majidi
Abstract
Analysis of optimum and threshold rates of government debt in Iran and the effect of public debt on economic growth are the major purposes of this paper. As government debt is both economic and political phenomena, there are a lot of political economic literature that focus on some dimensions including ...
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Analysis of optimum and threshold rates of government debt in Iran and the effect of public debt on economic growth are the major purposes of this paper. As government debt is both economic and political phenomena, there are a lot of political economic literature that focus on some dimensions including intergerneration redistribution, re-election of governments, political budget cycles, fiscal illusion, and bargaining in legislation. Government debt affects economic growth through six channels, including government expenditure, interest rate, future tax, possibility of vicious triangle crises (debt, bank, and currency crises), and counter cycle policies. There are three points about the effect of government debt on economic growth: positive, negative, or threshold effect. Using yearly data from 1974-2016 and OLS approach, we show that relationship between government debt and economic growth in Iran is inverse U, and the optimum rate of debt index (portion of government debt to GDP) in Iran is about 54.16 percent and the threshold level is about 108.32 percent. Moreover, it has been shown that from 1974 to the middle of 2000’s, public debt to central bank was more than public debt to banking system, but after that mentioend trend has been reversed
Farhad koohkan; Mohammad Reza Shoorvarzi; Abolghasem Masih Abadi; Aliraza Mehrazin
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of investors' mental accounting on financing policies of companies admitted to Tehran Stock Exchange. Statistical population was including of 14 top investment companies and their apposite invest taker companies (109 companies) during 2011-2017. ...
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The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of investors' mental accounting on financing policies of companies admitted to Tehran Stock Exchange. Statistical population was including of 14 top investment companies and their apposite invest taker companies (109 companies) during 2011-2017. In this study, variables of financial leverage, cash dividend, debt ratio, debt maturity and long-term debt to equity ratio were used as indicators of financing policies and panel data model with fixed effects method was used for data analysis. The results showed that investigated investment companies exhibited subjective accounting behavior in 34.69% of cases. In addition, investors' mental accounting also has an adverse effect on financial leverage, cash dividend and direct effect on debt ratio, debt maturity and long-term equity debt. The findings can provide valuable insights for managers to achieve optimal financing levels and play an important role in economic growth.
