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Akbar Nikkhah Sarnaghi; . .; Saeed Daei Karimzadeh
Abstract
The relationship between economic growth, trade openness of the economy and the quality of the environment in developing countries is one of the most important topics in the economic literature and in recent years has been one of the challenges for countries in terms of economic growth policies and trade ...
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The relationship between economic growth, trade openness of the economy and the quality of the environment in developing countries is one of the most important topics in the economic literature and in recent years has been one of the challenges for countries in terms of economic growth policies and trade expansion. Foreigners have suffered from the degradation and deterioration of the quality of the environment. In this study, this relationship is examined in developing countries, including 27 countries, including Iran during the years 2000 to 2020 using the GMM method. The results of the aggregate test indicate the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. According to the results of the estimate, the variables of trade openness and carbon dioxide emissions have a positive effect on economic growth. Carbon dioxide has a negative effect on foreign trade. On the other hand, the variables of economic growth and trade openness have a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, appropriate policies to protect the environment, along with policies of economic growth and trade expansion, in addition to economic growth can lead to improved environmental quality...
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Abstract
One of the characteristics of developed countries is the existence of efficient markets and financial institutions, which, while playing an important role in the economy of these countries, are also the basis for the economic growth and development of these countries. Today, in different countries, many ...
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One of the characteristics of developed countries is the existence of efficient markets and financial institutions, which, while playing an important role in the economy of these countries, are also the basis for the economic growth and development of these countries. Today, in different countries, many indicators are prepared by different statistical and scientific authorities such as government organizations, international organizations, universities and other centers in different fields and are made available to the public. Investigating the economic trends of countries helps traders. In this research, we have examined the impact of macro indicators on Iran's economic growth. The results show that the management of sanctions conditions and the consistent implementation of the resistance economy strategy during the beginning of the sixth plan strengthened the mentioned index, so that the average NSED has increased to the level between the second and third plans, according to the results of the analysis. Sensitivity, the fourth and third programs have been distinguished as the most successful development programs, as well as the fifth and first programs with the weakest performance.
Mohammadreza Lali; Saeed Daei-Karimzadeh; Farzad Karimi
Abstract
Recent studies on complex networks in international trade show the number of partners; trade intensity, indirect trade connections and the central position of each partner in the trade network have significant effects on economic growth. The network analysis approach in investigating the effect of trade ...
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Recent studies on complex networks in international trade show the number of partners; trade intensity, indirect trade connections and the central position of each partner in the trade network have significant effects on economic growth. The network analysis approach in investigating the effect of trade on economic growth, unlike conventional methods, can identify and measure indirect trade relations (intermediary countries in trade) in international interactions. This research aims to investigate world trade centrality indicators’ effects on economic growth using panel data of 42 chosen countries of Asia and CIS, in two steps. At first, the weighted directional matrices of trade was made and then the centrality indices of the countries were calculated for the selected years according to a complex network approach. Then the effect of the aforementioned indices as an explanatory variable of trade on economic growth has been investigated, and these were compared with the effect of the trade openness index.The results of the research show that compared to the conventional indicator of the trade openness index, the centrality indicators of the world trade network show a better explanation of economic growth while having more effect. Among these, the closeness centrality (due to having a core role in the network and the entanglement of trade relations) and the eigenvector centrality (due to establishing relationships with countries that are connected with important partners in the network) have more effects on economic growth.
Economic Growth
aliasghar baharloo; Syed Abdulmajid Jalaee Esfandabadi; Mohsen Zayandeh Roodi
Abstract
Considering the role of capital as one of the most important factors which can affect production, job creation, and productive activities, this study was an attempt to investigate factors which can influence investment and the way they do so. To this end, this study benefitted from a dynamic computable ...
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Considering the role of capital as one of the most important factors which can affect production, job creation, and productive activities, this study was an attempt to investigate factors which can influence investment and the way they do so. To this end, this study benefitted from a dynamic computable general equilibrium model approach to simulate the effects of technology spillovers on economic and welfare variables involved in the investment of Iranian private sector in the country's economy. Accordingly, the study focused on changes in the production index of different economic sectors of Iran and changes in the consumption and price levels in the form of four different scenarios, namely doubling foreign direct investment, improving productivity through technology spillovers by using a coefficient of 0.0062, increasing import of capital and intermediate goods by 20%, and simultaneous application of the aforementioned three scenarios by using the 2013 Social Accounting Matrix for Iran. the results revealed, application of the first scenario can lead to an increase in the level of private sector investment in all the 14 sectors of Iran's economy and cause production growth. Moreover, application of the third scenario can cause the investment level of private sector to decrease. Finally, consideration of the fourth scenario, as compared to the other three scenarios, can be accompanied by a more considerable increase in the levels of production, private sector investment, household consumption, export, import, and thus households' welfare.
توسعه مالی
aida hajnouri; meysam amiry; maghsoud amiri; hossein tavakolian; moslem peymani
Abstract
Money laundering one of the types of financial corruption has a very detrimental role on the economic. Planning the country's economic development and making decisions to implement economic policies requires recognition of the performance of the whole economy, including the formal and legal sector, and ...
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Money laundering one of the types of financial corruption has a very detrimental role on the economic. Planning the country's economic development and making decisions to implement economic policies requires recognition of the performance of the whole economy, including the formal and legal sector, and the informal and illegal sectors affected by money laundering. Hence, recognition of the consequences of money laundering shocks is a prelude to combating this phenomenon. This research has used dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models framework to model Iran's money laundering sector and investigate efficiency shocks for legal production and illegal production. The results show that the proposed model has been able to identify cyclical behavior and fluctuations of variables. The results of the research and comparison of a positive momentum of productivity in the legal and non-legal production sectors indicate similar behavior of most variables except labor force in both sectors, so that the positive momentum of productivity in both legal and illegal production sectors increases the production of legal and illegal enterprises and the increase in total production, the level of labor wage and commodity prices in the legal sector, An increase in consumption in the illegal sector and an increase in the consumption of all goods, an increase in the amount of investment and a decrease in physical capital, and finally an increase in the demand for money and an increase in the interest rate.
Maryam Amini; Nematola Akbari; Rozita Moayedfar; Fatemeh Bazzazan
Abstract
Economic prosperity (recession) means that the GDP increases (decreases) between two consecutive periods. One of the important approaches in examining economic prosperity and recession is the use of the capital matrix. This matrix is a suitable solution for providing the analysis of calculable general ...
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Economic prosperity (recession) means that the GDP increases (decreases) between two consecutive periods. One of the important approaches in examining economic prosperity and recession is the use of the capital matrix. This matrix is a suitable solution for providing the analysis of calculable general equilibrium patterns such as the dynamic input-output model. However, the main problem in the country is the lack of regional capital matrix statistical data. Therefore, it is practically impossible to check economic prosperity and recession at the regional level. The aim of the current research is to provide a non-statistical solution based on the theoretical foundations of the data to estimate the regional capital matrix from the national capital matrix. The results show that as the time interval increases, the estimated capital formation value of the region will be closer to the real capital formation value of the sector. This is truer in sectors that are inherently more disruptive. On the other hand, the results show that the most capital productions are related to industry, construction and agriculture sectors. Also, most capital purchases are related to industry, services and real estate sectors. On the other hand, the analysis of the regional capital matrix shows economic prosperity in 2015 for Isfahan province.
Mena Countries Group
Saeede Seydabadi; Ali Dehghani; Mohammd Ali Molaei
Abstract
Poverty is one of the most important economic issues in developing countries such as MENA. Poverty causes many social problems such as drug trafficking, theft, prostitution and corruption. On the other hand, corruption is a major problem in developing countries. Corruption destroys resources as well ...
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Poverty is one of the most important economic issues in developing countries such as MENA. Poverty causes many social problems such as drug trafficking, theft, prostitution and corruption. On the other hand, corruption is a major problem in developing countries. Corruption destroys resources as well as impedes the optimal allocation of resources. Statistics show that Iran is at a disadvantage both in terms of poverty and corruption. Therefore, considering the importance of fighting poverty and corruption, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of poverty on corruption. The Human Development Index was used to measure poverty and the World Bank Corruption Control Index was used to measure corruption. The Bayesian Hierarchical method was used to estimate regression. The results showed that the variables of economic growth, and human development index have a negative impact and the variables of trade freedom index, foreign direct investment, and the share of government spending in GDP have a positive effect on corruption.
Growth Accounting
Nafise Mosayebi Otaghsara; Zahra Mila Elmi; Saeed Rasekhi
Abstract
The objective of this research is to examine the growth of green productivity in the industry and transportation sectors of Iran during 2001-2019 and compare it with the conventional productivity index, which has been the criterion considered in policy-making decisions for several decades. Although in ...
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The objective of this research is to examine the growth of green productivity in the industry and transportation sectors of Iran during 2001-2019 and compare it with the conventional productivity index, which has been the criterion considered in policy-making decisions for several decades. Although in traditional productivity theories, green productivity indices generally have higher growth rates than conventional ones, some studies have shown that green productivity can grow at a lower rate than traditional productivity. The results of extended growth accounting along with using SUR methods for calculating the green productivity of two sectors show that the growth of this index is 2.11% for the industrial sector and -5.8% for the transportation sector, and compared to the conventional method, it was found that the growth of traditional productivity measure for the industry sector is underestimated for 0.7% and for the transportation sector, it is overestimated for 6.76%. Based on the results, the policy recommendation is to transform the adoption of an economic growth strategy focused on green productivity from a choice to a necessity, To prevent the creation of misleading ideas about growth prospects and, consequently, prevent the selection of inappropriate policy options by officials, especially in the transportation sector.
s
majid karimirizi; Mohammadhadi Sobhanian; Mohammad Qezelbash
Abstract
During the last decade, the use of Islamic financial bonds in the form of issuing new bonds, converting government's non-debt debts into financial bonds, the clearing of government bond debts from the non-banking sector to the banking network and from the banking network to the central bank has increased. ...
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During the last decade, the use of Islamic financial bonds in the form of issuing new bonds, converting government's non-debt debts into financial bonds, the clearing of government bond debts from the non-banking sector to the banking network and from the banking network to the central bank has increased. Based on this, the present research analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of financing the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran in two ways, the traditional approach (non-securities) and the issuance of Islamic securities through the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of DSGE on the main economic variables including inflation, investment , employment and economic growth. For this purpose, based on past experimental studies and seasonal data of Iran's economy during the period (1990:1 – 2021:4), simulation has been done and instantaneous reaction functions of macroeconomic variables to debt shocks. Conventional and financial bonds of the government to the central bank, banking network and the non-banking sector should be reviewed. The obtained results show; Financing the government by using debt securities will generally lead to investment growth, prevent the increase in inflation compared to the method of financing through non-debt debt, and create economic growth. Also, the effects of this on employment are assessed as positive in government bond debts to the banking network and to the central bank, and negative in government bond debts to the non-banking sector.
Energy
Elham Nobahar; Neda Sadeghi
Abstract
Energy, as one of the most important factors of production, plays a crucial role in the economic growth of countries, but in today's world, addressing economic growth issues without considering the aspects of sustainable development and intergenerational consequences is impossible. Considering the importance ...
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Energy, as one of the most important factors of production, plays a crucial role in the economic growth of countries, but in today's world, addressing economic growth issues without considering the aspects of sustainable development and intergenerational consequences is impossible. Considering the importance and differences of renewable and non-renewable energies in the sustainable development of countries, the main purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship between economic growth and the consumption of renewable and non-renewable energies in the D8 and G7 countries. Using two causality approaches, Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) and Konya (2006), this study investigates the relationship between these variables over the period from 2000 to 2022. The findings of this study reveal a unidirectional causality from GDP to renewable energy consumption in the D8 countries. Additionally, no causal relationship is observed between non-renewable energy consumption and GDP in these countries. In other words, in the D8 countries, economic growth is not influenced by energy consumption; however, as economic growth increases, these countries tend to adopt renewable energy sources. On the other hand, in the G7 countries that are more developed, the results indicate a unidirectional causal relationship from the consumption of renewable energy to GDP. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate a unidirectional causality from domestic gross production to non-renewable energy consumption. Hence, in the G7 countries, economic growth is influenced by the consumption of renewable energy and, in turn, impacts the consumption of non-renewable energy.
Farhad Khodadad Kashi; Nasser Ebrahimi; Siavash Jani
Abstract
Iran ,especially the province of golestan has always been exposed to floods, and in addition to causing great damage to the country and the province of golestan , no proper plan has yet been thought to reduce economic costs . This article tries to identify the key sectors of the province and evaluate ...
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Iran ,especially the province of golestan has always been exposed to floods, and in addition to causing great damage to the country and the province of golestan , no proper plan has yet been thought to reduce economic costs . This article tries to identify the key sectors of the province and evaluate the indirect damage of the flood through the construction and agriculture sectors on other sectors of the province.For this purpose , the regional input – output table with two demand side and supply side approaches is used to calculate the backward and forward linkages of the province´s sectors.The results indicate that the industry , construction and agriculture sectors are introduced as the key sectors of the province’s economy. According to both demand side and supply side approaches , two sectors of agriculture and industry suffer the most indirect damage due to the direct damage of the agriculture sector. According to the demand side approach , the result indicate that the most decrease in output is caused by direct damage to the construction sector , respectively , related to the industry , wholesale and retail sectors . On the other hand , industry and agriculture sectors experienced the most decrease in employment.the analysis of flood effects with a supply side approach indicates that the flood not only directly affects the construction sector , but also causes a decrease in employment in the industry , agriculture and construction sectors
رقابت
Farhad kashi; mohsen mehrara; seyedeh vajihe mikaeeli
Abstract
هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر ارزیابی تأثیر خصوصیسازی و فشار رقابتی بر قدرت بازار در بخش صنعت ایران است. برای تحقق این هدف ضمن استفاده از دادههای دروره زمانی 1381-1397صنایع کارخانهای ...
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هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر ارزیابی تأثیر خصوصیسازی و فشار رقابتی بر قدرت بازار در بخش صنعت ایران است. برای تحقق این هدف ضمن استفاده از دادههای دروره زمانی 1381-1397صنایع کارخانهای مرکز آمار از رویکرد هال-راجر و روش تخمین پنل دیتا استفاده شد. نتایج تحقیق دلالت بر وجود قدرت انحصاری قابل توجه در بخش صنعت ایران دارد و علاوهبراین تجربه خصوصیسازی در ایران نه تنها موجب افزایش رقابت در بخش صنعت ایران نشده است بلکه بعد از خصوصیسازی، قدرت انحصاری در این بخش افزایش یافته است و به عبارت دیگر در صنایعی همچون تولید مواد و محصولات شیمیایی، دارو و فرآوردهای دارویی و شیمیایی، تولید محصولات کانی غیرفلزی و صنعت تولید فلزات اساسی انحصار خصوصی جایگزین انحصار دولتی شده است. با مقایسه اثر خصوصسازی در صنایع بزرگ و و در کل صنعت مشخص شد که خصوصیسازی در صنایع بزرگ به قدرت انحصاری بیشتری منجر شده است تا در کل بخش صنعت. نتایج همچنین بر قدرت بازار صحه میگذارد به این ترتیب که با افزایش تمرکز بازار، قدرت انحصاری در صنایع ایران افزایش مییابد.
s
Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh
Abstract
The impact of inflation uncertainty on the real sector is one of the topics of monetary economics, which leads to important effects at the macroeconomic level. Despite this, there is no consensus on how inflation uncertainty affects output in the field of theoretical and empirical studies. On the other ...
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The impact of inflation uncertainty on the real sector is one of the topics of monetary economics, which leads to important effects at the macroeconomic level. Despite this, there is no consensus on how inflation uncertainty affects output in the field of theoretical and empirical studies. On the other hand, considering the conditions of countries with natural resources rent, this relationship may be challenged. Therefore, the current research tries to provide a new insight in this field by choosing Iran's economy due to the experience of wide inflation fluctuations on the one hand and the special role of oil revenues on its various sectors. For this purposedata from 1989:2 – 2021:2 and continuous wavelet transformation were used to examine the relationship between uncertainty of inflation and output by different groups.The results showed that in the short-run horizon, the gross domestic product and its components have experienced various relationships in terms of intensity, direction and flow of causality with inflation uncertainty. In the medium and long run, the gross domestic product due to oil revenues has an inverse effect on inflation uncertainty. Based on this, it can be said that achieving one of the important goals of monetary policy is dependent on the real sector and specifically oil rent. This problem is rooted in the high concentration of oil in Iran's economy and its direct and indirect influence on liquidity, which reflects the lack of independence of the central bank.
Economic Growth
Hossein Asgharpur; Mohammad-Salar Shahryari; Jaafar Haghighat; Saman Hatamerad; mansour heydari
Abstract
One of the important problems in examining economic growth is equating the frequency of variables affecting production, which approach leads to the loss of information on explanatory variables that have a high frequency compared to economic growth. In this study, by using the MIDAS and MIDAS-VAR method, ...
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One of the important problems in examining economic growth is equating the frequency of variables affecting production, which approach leads to the loss of information on explanatory variables that have a high frequency compared to economic growth. In this study, by using the MIDAS and MIDAS-VAR method, the effect of Tehran Stock market performance on the economic growth of Iran during the period of 2011 to 2021 has been investigated for quarterly and monthly data. The results of the estimates indicate the in the first month of the seasons when the number of stock market booms was high, stock returns had a very positive and significant impact on economic growth. This positive effect decreased with the increase in the number of recessions in the third months and in the second month of every quarter when the number of recessions in the stock market was high, and this had a negative effect on economic growth. Also, the empirical findings indicate that the intensity of the influence of stock returns was stronger in periods of recession than in periods of prosperity. Therefore, the most important policy recommendation of the current research is that in order to increase economic growth, it is necessary for economic policy makers to provide the basis for the growth and development of the stock market and increase its efficiency by adopting appropriate policies, and also prevent recession and its prolongation in the stock market.
Seyed Ehsan Hosseinidoust; Hamid Sepehrdoost; Farshid Moradi
Abstract
The aim of the present study is to investigate the effect of factors affecting capability poverty in the selected Muslim countries known as the D8 group relying on the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method during the period of 1997-2021. Results show the negative and significant effect of ...
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The aim of the present study is to investigate the effect of factors affecting capability poverty in the selected Muslim countries known as the D8 group relying on the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method during the period of 1997-2021. Results show the negative and significant effect of globalization on capability poverty in the D8 countries during the covered period, such that for each unit increase in the globalization index, capability poverty decreases by 1.8%, which indicates a relative improvement in the welfare of these countries. Likewise, the impact of economic growth on capability poverty is positive, so that a one percent increases in economic growth leads to an increase in capability poverty by 0.21 percent. Such finding can be due to not utilization of the benefits of growth to improve welfare infrastructure in the mentioned countries. In addition, the effect of control variables such as inflation and geographical distribution of the population has also been evaluated positively on capability poverty. Based on the findings of the current study, it is recommended to adopt inflation control programs and moving towards the promotion of globalization indicators in the economies of the D8 group.
Inflation
Faramarz Tahmasebi
Abstract
Inflation influences the assets’ price and return. In order to maintain the money value, investors are willing to invest in assets which maintain their purchasing power and bring them good returns, when they encounter inflationary conditions. Some assets have this function, including stocks, gold, ...
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Inflation influences the assets’ price and return. In order to maintain the money value, investors are willing to invest in assets which maintain their purchasing power and bring them good returns, when they encounter inflationary conditions. Some assets have this function, including stocks, gold, currency, housing, land, etc. This study aimed to review the effect of inflation on investment in a combination of physical and financial assets. The main research question is how the optimal investment portfolio of the people changes with the change of the inflationary conditions and the escalation of the inflation rate. For this purpose, the optimal combination of assets such as dollar, gold coins, stocks, corporate bonds, housing, bank deposits and land was extracted in different inflationary conditions during the period of 1991-2021 using Markowitz's mean-variance model. The results indicated that assets are moved in the people’s investment portfolio due to the change in the inflationary conditions. Where the inflation rate was lower than its 30-year average, the best investment combination for people were corporate bonds, housing, stocks and bank deposits, respectively. With the escalating inflationary conditions and the inflation rate higher than the 30-year average, the optimal investment portfolio includes corporate bonds, gold coins, stocks and land, respectively. Comparing the composition of assets in the first to fourth quartiles of inflation represented that the corporate bonds, housing, stocks and gold are the first priorities of people's investment.
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