s
Mohammadghasem Rezaee; Majid Maddah; Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi
Abstract
Taxes are a policy-making tool for the economic stabilization and, on this basis; local taxes can influence provinces’ economic performance. Local taxes are taxes for which the rates and bases are determined by the local authorities. These taxes finance services to be provided for local residents. ...
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Taxes are a policy-making tool for the economic stabilization and, on this basis; local taxes can influence provinces’ economic performance. Local taxes are taxes for which the rates and bases are determined by the local authorities. These taxes finance services to be provided for local residents. Local taxes influence regional economic growth for the following main reasons: increased competition among the regions, higher economic growth, decreased shadow economy and finally, improvement of taxpayer’s behavior. Thus, this research has reviewed and empirically analyzed the effect of corporate income tax, personal income tax, property tax and consumption tax as local taxes on country provinces’ economic growth. To this end, within the framework of ECM models, a PMG methodology was employed that made use of quarterly data during March 2005- July 2015. The results of the model estimation show that, property tax and consumption tax increase regional economic growth, whereas corporate income tax and personal income tax decreases the regional economic growth. Also, revenue-neutral shift away from either corporate income or personal income tax toward property or consumption tax leads to increases the regional long- run growth. The results indicate that optimal local taxation (with property and consumption tax bases) leads to provincial economic growth. So, this study can be used as guidance for economic policy-makers.
total factor productivity of production؛
Farrokh Norozi; Masoud Nonejad; Mehrzad Ebrahimi; Jalil Khodaparast Shirazi
Abstract
Today most developed and developing countries emphasize on the importance of productivity as one of the necessities of economic development and competitiveness in the world. Because todays, competition is taking various dimensions and striving for higher productivity is one of the important factor of ...
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Today most developed and developing countries emphasize on the importance of productivity as one of the necessities of economic development and competitiveness in the world. Because todays, competition is taking various dimensions and striving for higher productivity is one of the important factor of these competitions. On this basis, identifying the factors of affecting productivity growth in the Iran economy is essential for economic growth and development. Therefore, this study intends to first identify the factors affecting productivity growth by using feature selection logic, basis on Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) then estimate the selective model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for the period (1991-2016) and finally using the Garsen index to measure the sensitivity analysis of factors affecting productivity growth. Based on the results of the feature selection among the twenty variables, foreign investment, health investment, rail lines, innovation index and exchange rate (five variables) were removed from the model. Based on the results of ANN model with Tansig activation function with 3 neurons, it has a prediction power of 0.993 and minimum error of model 0.0019. Also, according to the Garsen index, human capital (15%), government size (11%), openness, research and development and economic corruption control (8%) had the highest impact on productivity growth and monetary development (1.48%) the rule of law (2.27%) and physical capital (3.2%) had the least impact on productivity growth.
Monetary policy
Seyyed Abdolmajid Jalaee Esfand Abadi; Nasim Iranmanesh
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of monetary policy and supply side policy on value added of economic sectors of Iran separately (agriculture, services, industry and mining) during 1974- 2018 in short run and long run. The econometric model used in this study is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) ...
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This study investigates the impact of monetary policy and supply side policy on value added of economic sectors of Iran separately (agriculture, services, industry and mining) during 1974- 2018 in short run and long run. The econometric model used in this study is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that monetary policy has three different effects on the three economic sectors. In the short run. monetary policy is able to increase the value added of the two sectors of agriculture and services, but in the long run it can only increase the value added of the services sector and have no effect on the value added of agricultural sector, while the application of monetary policy, In short run and long run, has a negative impact on the value added of the industry. In contrast, the impact of the supply side policy in all three sectors and in both short and long run is positive, significant and tangible.
Mirfarhad Sadigh Mohammadi; Ahmad Sarlak; Seyyed Abbas Najafizadeh; Mohammad Hassanzadeh
Abstract
Exchange rate as an interface between domestic and foreign economies, is one of the most important macroeconomic variables. Thus, exchange rate shocks can affect the income, consumption expenditure, and eventually, welfare of households via affecting export and import prices in combination with domestic ...
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Exchange rate as an interface between domestic and foreign economies, is one of the most important macroeconomic variables. Thus, exchange rate shocks can affect the income, consumption expenditure, and eventually, welfare of households via affecting export and import prices in combination with domestic prices. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of exchange rate shocks on the welfare of households in Iran using equivalent variation (EV) and compensating variation (CV) criteria. Due to the strengths of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models compared to single-equation models, we have calibrated a standard CGE model based on social accounting matrix (SAM) for the year 2011, and have compared changes in the welfare of urban and rural households via simulation of the exchange rate increase. The results show that exchange rate increase lowers the welfare of urban and rural households, and this effect is stronger for urban households than rural households. Stronger exchange rate shocks lead to greater welfare losses. Therefore, differences in welfare loss between urban and rural households must be taken into account in plans and protective measures aimed to mitigate the negative impacts of exchange rate shocks.
s
Leila Gholami Heidariani; Reza Ranjpour; Firoz Fallahi
Abstract
In this study, we investigate the relationship between stocks cycles and business cycles in Iran, using the spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 59). The dynamic interaction between financial cycles and business cycles is used by rolling window estimation and spillover plots. We use ...
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In this study, we investigate the relationship between stocks cycles and business cycles in Iran, using the spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 59). The dynamic interaction between financial cycles and business cycles is used by rolling window estimation and spillover plots. We use data of GDP cycles as business cycle and also data of total stock price index, the stock price index in industry and the stock price index in finance based on quarterly data during 1998Q3-2018Q1. We have investigated the relationship between business cycle and stocks cycles along with exchange rate, oil incomes and liquidity. The results show that the total spillovers index increases in during periods of economic recessions. Also, the business cycle, oil cycle and exchange rate cycle are more impressionable market and the total stock, industry stock, finance cycle and liquidity cycle are more influential market than other markets.
Monetary Shocks
Niloofar Sadat Hosseini; Hossein Asgharpur
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to study Taylor's theory and investigating the effect of monetary shocks on macroeconomic variables assuming the degree of exchange rate pass-through in different inflationary environments. In this study, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy ...
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The purpose of this study is to study Taylor's theory and investigating the effect of monetary shocks on macroeconomic variables assuming the degree of exchange rate pass-through in different inflationary environments. In this study, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy has been used. In this framework, effects of monetary shock were investigated in Iran during 1988:1˗2014:4. and the inflation regimes and the degree of exchange rate pass-through have been investigated using a smooth transmission regression model. The empirical findings show that Taylor's hypothesis is confirmed. In other hands, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is high in an economy with high inflation. Due to a monetary shock, volatility of macroeconomic variables is high, assuming a high degree of exchange rate pass-through in the inflationary environments.
Salman Gharakhani; Mohsen Renani; Zahra Karimi; Farshad Momeni
Abstract
The thinkers and theorists in development have proposed various theories on the non-convergent path of development in different societies. In line with this, as one of new institutionalists North studied the transition from Limited Access Order (LAO) (i.e., Natural State) to Open Access Order (OAO) by ...
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The thinkers and theorists in development have proposed various theories on the non-convergent path of development in different societies. In line with this, as one of new institutionalists North studied the transition from Limited Access Order (LAO) (i.e., Natural State) to Open Access Order (OAO) by emphasizing the violence concept. In this paper, it is tried to investigate the institutional barriers to Iran's transition from the Natural State (NS) during the second Pahlavi era; therefore, an analytic narrative is presented about elements such as the official political institutions, formal economic institutions, major domestic superordinates and the rent resources during this period using the Governance Diamond Index (GDI). Hence, this time span is divided into two different periods, namely Fragile Limited Access Order (FLAO) and Basic Limited Access Order (BLAO), and the interaction among ruling coalition members is studied using GDI. Although Iran experienced BLAO in this period, the historical evidence shows the major issue was that this country not only did not move toward OAO, its conditions even led to FLAO and eventually chaos after undergoing a period of BLAO. The results of this study illustrate that the country was exposed to continuous violence due to lack of a coalition among superordinates, the domination of personal relationships over all affairs, and the non-productive distribution of rents under the shadow of increased oil revenues and foreign aid.
