Amir Hossein Ghaffari Nejad; Majid Maddah
Abstract
In the literature of political macroeconomics stresses role of political competition in the economic performance of countries; Political competition can influence economic growth by affecting resources allocation and quality of economic policies. This paper examines the effect of political competition ...
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In the literature of political macroeconomics stresses role of political competition in the economic performance of countries; Political competition can influence economic growth by affecting resources allocation and quality of economic policies. This paper examines the effect of political competition on economic performance in Iran in the framework of a dynamic growth model by Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent estimators (HAC) method over the period 1364 to 1397. In this regard, we use the degree of alignment of government and parliament, power balance, power distribution, political and economic freedom and a composite index as the determinants of political competition. The results of estimates confirm the hypothesis of non-linear effect of political competition on economic growth in the Iranian economy as U-shape relationship such as at first the higher levels of political completion tend to be associated to smaller real GDP per capita, but after the optimal value (minimum political competition), production will increase. In this step, the actors of political system, by accepting the rules of political competition and avoiding factional policies focuses policies, focus policies that promote economic growth. This situation, which is known as the learning of political competition, enjoys society the benefits of competition political parties. The findings of this research supports the importance of political competition as one of the sources of economic growth.
amir ali farhang
Abstract
Growing demand for energy leads to economic growth and at the same time increases pollution and environmental degradation. Given the importance of economic growth and the environment, it is important for policymakers and economists to understand how energy variables and pollution affect the economic ...
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Growing demand for energy leads to economic growth and at the same time increases pollution and environmental degradation. Given the importance of economic growth and the environment, it is important for policymakers and economists to understand how energy variables and pollution affect the economic growth of countries. According to this, the present study investigated the effects of fossil fuel consumption, CO2 emissions and crude oil prices on economic growth during the period 2000-2019 in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). For analysis, the Pooled mean group (PMG) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) methods have been used and the countries studied in the study, in addition to the regional study of MENA, are divided into two subgroups, including countries exporting and importing crude oil. The results of PMG estimation show that a one percent increase in fossil fuel energy consumption, CO2 emissions and crude oil prices increased economic growth by 0.183, 0.013 and 0.058 percent for the crude oil exporting countries, respectively, while increasing by one percent. Crude oil prices in the short and long term will reduce the economic growth in the countries importing crude oil by 0.0260 and 0.409% respectively. The estimation results of DOLS method are similar to the results of PMG method and confirm it and indicate that the research has sufficient strength.
Firouz Fallahi; Mohsen Porebadallahan; SeyedKamal Sadeghi; Tohid Shokri
Abstract
The relationship between the economic growth and the environment quality and degradation is one of the most debated topics among the economists and environmentalists. Economic growth usually requires more consumption of energy, which leads to more environment degradation. Substituting renewable energy ...
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The relationship between the economic growth and the environment quality and degradation is one of the most debated topics among the economists and environmentalists. Economic growth usually requires more consumption of energy, which leads to more environment degradation. Substituting renewable energy sources for fossil fuels would prevent environment degradation; however, it will hinder the economic growth. Therefore, the relationship between the economic growth and environment could go in both directions and previous studies have shown different results. This study uses time-frequency analysis through wavelet transforms to examine this relationship in Iran using the data from the first quarter in 1991 to the last quarter in 2016. This approach allows identifying the change in the relationship between the variables over different time horizons. To that end, we calculate the coherence and energy of the wavelets over different time horizons using Matlab 2018a. The results show that in the short-run (less than a year) and mid-run (between one and four years), economic growth is the cause of environment and an increase in the economic growth would cause environment degradation. The results from the short and medium run show that this relationship was much stronger during the periods 2012-2015 and 2009-2010. However, in the long run, there is no causality between the two variables so environment regulations would not hinder the economic growth.
mohamad ali shabani; Mahmood Hooshmand; Ali Akbar Naji Meidani; mohammad Ghorbani
Abstract
Cities play an important role in population distribution and economic growth. One of the aspects addressed in the urban economics literature is the relationship between urbanization and economic growth. Urbanization is the relationship between population, employment, migration and environment, Given ...
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Cities play an important role in population distribution and economic growth. One of the aspects addressed in the urban economics literature is the relationship between urbanization and economic growth. Urbanization is the relationship between population, employment, migration and environment, Given that the economic growth of a geographical area is affected by variables and the effects of overflows of other areas, especially its neighbors, in addition to the spatial dependence created through these variables, the effects that are common to all geographical areas also cause correlation in economic growth of units. They become geographical, so it is necessary to differentiate between the dependence created by these factors and the spatial dependence caused by the spatial effects of variables, because otherwise the role of spatial effects will be more colorful than it really is. Therefore, to control these effects, spatial patterns were estimated once without these effects and once with these effects in 30 provinces of Iran. The results show that even considering the effects of common factors, there is still a positive autocorrelation. There is a gap between the economic growth of the provinces of the country . Results of applying the effects of common factors show is that considering these effects has reduced the intensity of the spatial effect. Also, the results of estimating the dynamic spatial Durbin model indicate that the relationship between urbanization and economic growth of Iranian provinces is inverted U and the effects of urban spillover on economic growth. Neighboring provinces are positive and meaningful.
Seyed Hussein Fatemi Nsab; Zohreh Hajiha; Ghodratollah Emamverdi; Ali Baghani
Abstract
The tourism industry is the largest and most diverse industry in the world. The impact of tourism on increasing employment and foreign exchange earnings, the prosperity of domestic industries, the expansion of international cooperation has changed the attitude of countries around the world and has found ...
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The tourism industry is the largest and most diverse industry in the world. The impact of tourism on increasing employment and foreign exchange earnings, the prosperity of domestic industries, the expansion of international cooperation has changed the attitude of countries around the world and has found an important place in government policy. Therefore, in this study, the orthogonal effect of financial development and tourism on economic growth in Iran has been modeled using the factor-augmented vector regression model (FAVAR) combined with the model of variable parameters over time (TVP). And using time series data during the years 1363 to 1397 has been studied. The results show that there is a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and tourism and a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and financial development. Financial development such as easy turnover in the country of origin and the simple use of financial instruments to finance tourists play an important role in the growth of this industry. Just as increased financial development leads to economic growth, so does economic growth lead to improved infrastructure and the development of the tourism industry.
Mohammad Vaez Barzani; Mohammad Mohammadi Motlagh
Abstract
Abstract:In many countries, governments have a significant impact on economy through the implementation of monetary and fiscal policies. However, the implementation of inter generational distribution policies, which are in fact the application of fiscal policies in favor of a certain age group of society, ...
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Abstract:In many countries, governments have a significant impact on economy through the implementation of monetary and fiscal policies. However, the implementation of inter generational distribution policies, which are in fact the application of fiscal policies in favor of a certain age group of society, has been received less attention by policymakers in developing countries, including Iran.The purpose of this study shows the impact of inter generational fiscal distribution policies on economic growth, using the overlapping generations model developed Blanchard (1985) and calibrating the model, by applying MATLAB software to extract the steady-state equilibrium conditions for consumption growth and capital in Iran economy.The research results point out that the impacts of distributive fiscal policies on capital growth and consumption growth as two variables affecting the growth rate of the economy, have two separable statuses. The first status belongs to the smoothing rate of consumption in utility functions with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) which it is less than one; In mentioned situation, by applying distributive fiscal policies in favor of the young age group, the Iranian economy is faced with an increase in capital growth and consumption growth, and the second status is a situation where the smoothing rate of consumption is chosen more than one. In said case, the applying fiscal policies have different results from the previous status.JEL: C61, D31, E21.
Latif Hosseini; Akbar Mirzapour Babajan; Beitollah Akbari Moghaddam
Abstract
Although taxes have always been a major source of funding for governments and an effective tool for the government to achieve its goals, these important tools have led to disruptions in the economy and have led to widespread differences among economists. It has been about the role and size of government ...
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Although taxes have always been a major source of funding for governments and an effective tool for the government to achieve its goals, these important tools have led to disruptions in the economy and have led to widespread differences among economists. It has been about the role and size of government in the economy. The purpose of this paper was to investigate the Impact of tax revenues on macroeconomic variables. The model parameters are estimated using seasonal adjusted time series data for the period 2009-2010. To estimate the bizarre parameters of the model, the previous standard distribution, mean, and deviation of the parameters must first be determined. The parameters are calculated. The results of the model estimation showed that the revenues from VAT have a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of different provinces. Also, the amount of intermittent growth rate of GDP per capita in the provinces has a positive and significant effect on the economic growth rate of this year and also the variable of bank credit, investment rate, has a positive and significant effect on economic growth rate. Also, the variable of investment and government spending has a positive and significant effect, but the inflation rate has a significant and negative effect on economic growth. The results also showed that a short-term tax shock has a negative impact on economic growth and consumption, but in the long run, with an increase in tax revenues, GDP growth and, consequently, consumption and investment in the economy have increased.
Seyyed ali Islaminezhad; Asqhar Abolhasani Hastiani; abdolali monsef; Kamran Nadri
Abstract
From the point of view of scholars in economics, privatization is not only considered as a tool for restructuring the economy and increasing competition, but also an essential base for economic growth and development. According to that, the first and most important goal of privatization program in the ...
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From the point of view of scholars in economics, privatization is not only considered as a tool for restructuring the economy and increasing competition, but also an essential base for economic growth and development. According to that, the first and most important goal of privatization program in the General Policies of Principle (44) of the constitution,Law is to increase the economic growth. However, most studies have assessed the effects of privatization just on micro variables in economy, and only a few of them are focused on macro objectives such as economic growth. In this regard and due to uncertainties in the rate of achievement of this goal, as the result of the implementation of the mentioned program, this study is focused on evaluation of the privatization effect on economic growth of the country for the period 1991-2017. For this purpose, the human capital model and also the fully modified least squares (FMOLS) has been used. This method does not have the limitations of the ARDL method, such as the synchronization and exogenous variables and the resulting errors in estimation, which has been used in previous studies. In this study, privatization variable is considered as income from the transferring. Estimating the model and performing statistical tests, findings show that the impact of privatization on economic growth is positive and significant during the mentioned period.
Haniyeh Sedaghat Kalmarzi; Shahram Fatahi; kiomars sohaili
Abstract
In this article, the interaction effects of growth and happiness in the framework of a dynamic simultaneous equations panel data model have been considered in the OPEC countries during the period of 2005–2016. Also, according to the resource curse hypothesis, the threshold effects of oil rent on ...
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In this article, the interaction effects of growth and happiness in the framework of a dynamic simultaneous equations panel data model have been considered in the OPEC countries during the period of 2005–2016. Also, according to the resource curse hypothesis, the threshold effects of oil rent on both economic growth and happiness have been tested. The estimation results have indicated that the first lag of happiness has had an insignificant positive impact on economic growth but the first lag of economic growth has had a significant negative impact on happiness. In other words, it can be argued that the benefits of economic growth in the oil oriented countries under this study are not uniformly distributed across all parts of society. Also, in the framework of the mentioned model, the effect of oil rent on happiness and economic growth has been threshold. In other words, before the threshold of 26.25% of the ratio of oil rents to GDP, the oil rent had a positive effect on economic growth, but after the threshold, it had a negative effect on economic growth, which indicates the phenomenon of resource curse in OPEC countries. A similar result has been obtained on the effect of oil rent on happiness, so that before the threshold of 26.92% of the ratio of oil rent to GDP, oil rent has had a positive and significant effect on happiness, but after exceeding this threshold, oil rents have had a negative effect on happiness, which could reflect the existence of the Easterlin paradox in the countries.
Mahdieh Rezagholizadeh; Hosna Rajabpour
Abstract
Financial stress and political risk as effective factors on the behavior of economic agents lead to uncertainty and changes in expectations and they have important role for analyzing the country's economic growth. According to the importance of this issue, in present study after construction of the financial ...
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Financial stress and political risk as effective factors on the behavior of economic agents lead to uncertainty and changes in expectations and they have important role for analyzing the country's economic growth. According to the importance of this issue, in present study after construction of the financial stress and political risk indices in Iran, the effects of these two variables on the country's economic growth (per capita GDP growth( during the period 2009 - 2018 have been investigated using seasonal data with ARDL Bounding Test.The results of models showed that the increase in the financial stress has a negative impact on the economic growth and an increase in the political risk index -which means reducing in the political risk in country- has a positive impact on the economic growth. In other words, increasing financial stress in the country during the period 2009 - 2018 will lead to a decrease in per capita GDP growth and decreasing in the political risk leads to improvement in the economic growth.
Alireza Borhanipour; Gholamreza Geraeinejad; Alireza Daghighi asli; Manijeh Hadinejad
Abstract
The main aim of this paper is to investigate the threshold effects of good governance index on economic growth for upper middle income countries and presence of other variables, including education expenditures, gross capital formation, inflation rate and trade openness over the period 1996-2018. For ...
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The main aim of this paper is to investigate the threshold effects of good governance index on economic growth for upper middle income countries and presence of other variables, including education expenditures, gross capital formation, inflation rate and trade openness over the period 1996-2018. For this purpose, the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model has been utilized for model estimation. The estimation results of model reject the linearity hypothesis, and estimate a continuous transition function with two regimes that gives a threshold at good governance of -0.94 with speed of transition 1.74 for investigated countries. Moreover the study results indicate good governance, trade openness, education expenditures and gross capital formation have a positive impact on economic growth that their impacts are increased in the values above a threshold which is calculated for good governance. The other results indicate that the influencing coefficient of the inflation rate variable is negative and significant in two regimes. Though, its impact is declined in second regime. Hence, improving the quality of governance and efficient institutions promote the economic growth and development in the selected countries. Moreover, the transparency, government effectiveness and control of corruption indices have positive and significant impacts on the real GDP growth in selected countries.
Babak Esmaeili
Abstract
This paper aims to study the non-linear and threshold effects of the macroeconomics variables on inflation in Iran's economy using the sequential seasonal periodic data from 1991 to 2018 based on the Soft Transition Regression (STR).In the developed model, the cash growth was selected as threshold variable ...
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This paper aims to study the non-linear and threshold effects of the macroeconomics variables on inflation in Iran's economy using the sequential seasonal periodic data from 1991 to 2018 based on the Soft Transition Regression (STR).In the developed model, the cash growth was selected as threshold variable with the approximate sum of 4.22 percent (17 percent a year) as the threshold limit. The results show that the linear approximation cannot satisfactorily explain the non-linear effects of the oil incomes and other variables in different regimes. In other words, the sequential non-linear pattern, having considered the regime changes and the changing indices during time, is better able to explain the inflation behavior in Iran’s economy in comparison with the linear pattern and can demonstrate the dynamics effects of the macro nominal and literal variables on inflation in Iran’s economy more comprehensively.The results show that, depending on the regime conditions, other macro variables such as current expenditures, construction expenditures and economic growth exacerbate inflation. Moreover, in high regime, the price level deviation from the long-term balanced relation, is a very significant factor in inflation acceleration, to such extent that inflation exorbitantly reacts to this gap. Gross domestic product and its hindrance have anti-inflammatory effects in most regimes.In different regimes the oil incomes have not had meaningful or significant effects on inflation, as it seems that the effect of this variable on inflation is controlled to a very great extent by other variables.According to the findings, it seems that cash growth is the most important factor of regime change in the relationship between inflation and other macro variables in the economy of Iran. The legislation authority, by controlling the cash growth and transferring it to the low growth regime, is able to abort or reduce the effect of many other variables such as current or construction expenditures.
Mehran Farahikia; Masoud Yarmohammadi; Hossein Hassani; Ali Shadrokh
Abstract
The amount of non-performing loans is one the indicators for assesssing banks credit risk and its high values is a sign of unhealthy of banking system. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of economic growth on NPLs by applying new nonparametric and robust approaches in time series analysis. ...
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The amount of non-performing loans is one the indicators for assesssing banks credit risk and its high values is a sign of unhealthy of banking system. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of economic growth on NPLs by applying new nonparametric and robust approaches in time series analysis. For this purpose, an econometric model is designed on factors affecting NPL which includes three variables related to economic growth and a variable which is domestic credits. Quarterly data were used between the first quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2018 which have been gathered from the website of the Iran’s Ministry of Economy Affairs and Finance. Based on nonparametric approaches considered for analysing data, sub-space-based unit root test was performed to evaluate the stability of series and simple non-parametric regression model was performed for modelling propuses. In this paper, the relationships between variables were estimated using second-order Gaussian kernel in multivariate non-parametric regression. According to the results of the empirical analysis in Iran, there is a causal relationship between the non-performing loans and the total amount of loans of Iranian private banking sector. The SSA causality test shows that this relationship is evident. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at fixed prices, Public Sector Expenditure (PS) and Private Sector Expenditure (PSE), Domestic Credit Volume (CV) are the most important subdivisions of economic growth. According to the results, public sector expenditure has an opposite effect and the increase in credit volume has a direct effect on increasing NPL.
hamid khavari; Mohammad Ali Falahi; Narges Salehnia
Abstract
In Iran, oil supplies the needed fuel and is the main source of foreign exchange earnings. Thereby, any volatility in oil prices will affect Iran's foreign exchange earnings at first and economic growth through time. This study, using Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) model, investigates the effects ...
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In Iran, oil supplies the needed fuel and is the main source of foreign exchange earnings. Thereby, any volatility in oil prices will affect Iran's foreign exchange earnings at first and economic growth through time. This study, using Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) model, investigates the effects of oil price volatility on economic growth of Iran through some institutional, monetary and financial variables during the period 1981-2017. The results show that the impulse of oil price volatility has a negative reaction from the growth of production. The index of democracy's reaction to the oil volatility is negative and, given its direct relation to production growth, overall production growth is reduced. Similarly, as for the government expenditures, it leads to reduced production growth. But the M2 has a positive reaction to the volatility of world crude oil prices and also has a positive effect on the production growth in the short run. The results also show that the most important variable affecting production growth changes in both the short and long run is the impact of government expenditures changes. Then, for achieving sustainable growth and using private sector dynamics, the assignment of public sector companies to the private sector based on the Article 44 of the Constitution should be followed.
reza zamani; masoud majidi
Abstract
Analysis of optimum and threshold rates of government debt in Iran and the effect of public debt on economic growth are the major purposes of this paper. As government debt is both economic and political phenomena, there are a lot of political economic literature that focus on some dimensions including ...
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Analysis of optimum and threshold rates of government debt in Iran and the effect of public debt on economic growth are the major purposes of this paper. As government debt is both economic and political phenomena, there are a lot of political economic literature that focus on some dimensions including intergerneration redistribution, re-election of governments, political budget cycles, fiscal illusion, and bargaining in legislation. Government debt affects economic growth through six channels, including government expenditure, interest rate, future tax, possibility of vicious triangle crises (debt, bank, and currency crises), and counter cycle policies. There are three points about the effect of government debt on economic growth: positive, negative, or threshold effect. Using yearly data from 1974-2016 and OLS approach, we show that relationship between government debt and economic growth in Iran is inverse U, and the optimum rate of debt index (portion of government debt to GDP) in Iran is about 54.16 percent and the threshold level is about 108.32 percent. Moreover, it has been shown that from 1974 to the middle of 2000’s, public debt to central bank was more than public debt to banking system, but after that mentioend trend has been reversed
Economic Growth
Farhad khodadad kashi; samaneh noraniazad; somayeh shateri
Abstract
Although economic growth is affected by the growth of factors of production, governance and government size were also effective on economic growth. In this study, the impact of government size and governance on the economic growth of perspective document countries evaluated over the period 2006-2017. ...
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Although economic growth is affected by the growth of factors of production, governance and government size were also effective on economic growth. In this study, the impact of government size and governance on the economic growth of perspective document countries evaluated over the period 2006-2017. To meet this end, The World Bank database and data of perspective document countries were used. Moreover, the optimum size of the government evaluated based on the proposed Baro method. This article sought to estimate the effect of government size and governance by using panel data and the threshold nonlinear two-stage generalized method of moment. The findings indicated that the average optimal size of the government was 18.38% of the gross domestic product. Also, in countries with less government size, the growth of government expenditures had a positive effect on economic growth, while countries with a government size larger than optimal, government spending had a negative effect on economic growth. In addition, the results confirmed economic growth was affected by the governance of the state.
توسعه مالی
hossein fathizadeh; masooud nonejad; Ali Haghighat; abbas aminifard
Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between economic growth, energy intensity and financial development in the agricultural, industry and mining and services sectors of the Iranian economy. For this purpose, annual time series data of the sectors during the period from 1974 to 2016 were used. ...
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This study investigates the relationship between economic growth, energy intensity and financial development in the agricultural, industry and mining and services sectors of the Iranian economy. For this purpose, annual time series data of the sectors during the period from 1974 to 2016 were used. To analyze the relationships, Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) methods were used. The results of the long-run relationship of the ARDL model show that the impact of energy intensity on the economic growth of industry and mining, and services sectors is negative and significant and positive and significant in agriculture sector. The effect of financial development on economic growth in agriculture sector and industry and mining sector is positive and significant, while despite the positive impact of financial development on economic growth in services sector, the coefficient of this variable is not statistically significant. Furthermore, based on the results of variance decomposition in SVAR model, energy intensity growth and financial development growth have had a large share of economic growth fluctuations in different sectors of Iranian economy. Similarly, economic growth and financial development have also played a significant part in the energy intensity fluctuations of the sectors. Finally, energy intensity has the largest share of fluctuations in financial development in industry sector, while the economic growth has also played a considerable part in the fluctuations of financial development in the services sector.
Economic Growth
Hossien Amiri; Mohsen Salehi Komroudi; Mahnaz Pasban
Abstract
Macroeconomic conditions and the relationship of macroeconomic variables have a major impact on the economic performance of countries. Understanding these relationships helps policymakers manage macroeconomics better. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between economic growth, inflation, ...
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Macroeconomic conditions and the relationship of macroeconomic variables have a major impact on the economic performance of countries. Understanding these relationships helps policymakers manage macroeconomics better. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between economic growth, inflation, interest rate and exchange rate in selected Muslim countries (Bahrain, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar). Therefore Panel VAR method was used for this purpose. The study used panel data from selected countries over the period 2000–2016. According to the results, all variables are stationary and the model was stable. According to Granger causality results inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate were the cause of economic growth; inflation rate, economic growth and exchange rate were the cause of economic growth rate; inflation rate, economic growth and interest rate were the cause of exchange rate and only inflation had not the Granger's causality. Exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation had positive effects on economic growth based on impulse-response functions. Exchange rate, interest rate, and economic growth had very short-term and negatively positive effects on themselves. Exchange rate, inflation and economic growth have had a negative effect on the interest rate. Finally, the effect of interest rate is unclear on exchange rate and inflation rate and economic growth had negative effect on economic growth.
Income inequality
Ali Sarkhosh Sara; Khadije Nasrollahi; Karim Azarbaiejani; Rasoul Bakhsi Dastjerdi
Abstract
Reduction of inequality and social justice by balancing the distribution of income and wealth is one of the concerns of economic policy makers and has been underlined by the constitution law in Iran. In the meantime, the explanation of the relationship between inequality and the factors affecting it ...
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Reduction of inequality and social justice by balancing the distribution of income and wealth is one of the concerns of economic policy makers and has been underlined by the constitution law in Iran. In the meantime, the explanation of the relationship between inequality and the factors affecting it has been a challenging area of economic debate in recent decades, and despite extensive research in this area, there are still many ambiguous issues in this regard. In this regard, in recent years, a new hypothesis has been presented by the French economist Thomas Piketty. In his analysis, Piketty's main factor of inequality is the gap between the rate of return on capital and the economic growth rate (r-g). But, despite offering logical explanations consistent with changes in the patterns of inequality, no empirical test has been done for the scientific-theoretical chain. Therefore, the question arises as to how much Piketty's hypothesis is empirically convincing and capable of explaining the rise of inequality for different countries? For this purpose, this paper, using the Structural Vector Autoregressive pattern (SVAR), analyzes the factors affecting income inequality in Iran within the framework of Thomas Piketty's perspective during the period of 1973-2016. The results of this study showed that the increase of gap (r-g) has no positive and significant relationship with the increase of inequality and share of capital from national income in Iran and there is no evidence to confirm Piketty's hypothesis in Iran.
Economic Growth
Alireza Kazerooni; Hosein Asgharpur; Maryam Nafisi Moghadam
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of political stability and democracy on economic growth in member countries of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). This study estimated panel regression using a Generalizes Method of Moments (GMM) framework, on a sample of 34 OIC member ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of political stability and democracy on economic growth in member countries of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). This study estimated panel regression using a Generalizes Method of Moments (GMM) framework, on a sample of 34 OIC member countries for the period of 1986-2014. In this research, a composite indicator of Internal Conflict, External Conflict, Military in Politics, Ethnic and Religius Tensions Religion in Politics has been used to calculate the political stability index using the principal components analysis method (PCA). The results of the research show that political stability and democracy have a significant positive role in the economic growth.
Economic Growth
Mohammad Sharif Karimi; Marayam Haidarian; Masomeh Dorbash
Abstract
Establishing security is one of the important pillars of economic growth and the most important economic impact of security in the phenomenon of investment and economic growth is observed. The establishment of security in society is influenced by several factors, among which the institutions in the society ...
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Establishing security is one of the important pillars of economic growth and the most important economic impact of security in the phenomenon of investment and economic growth is observed. The establishment of security in society is influenced by several factors, among which the institutions in the society and government are the most important of these factors. In both internal and external conflicts, each of them, in turn, will undermine security and, as a result, will undermine the economic growth of a country. Therefore, in this research, we tried to study the effect of internal and external conflicts on economic growth in Middle East countries during the period 1996-2018. By examining the nature and effect of conflicts on economic growth, first, the effect of external conflict on internal conflict in the form of a panel probe model, then in two separate models of the impact of internal and external disputes on the quality of institutions and economic integration indexes are examined. Finally, in a generalized method of moments system the simultaneous influence of internal and external conflicts, quality of institutions indicators and economic integration on economic growth have been investigated. The results of the model estimation show the positive effects of external conflicts on the internal conflicts and then the negative effects of internal and external conflicts on the quality of institutions and economic integration. In the final model, the increase in domestic and foreign conflicts has led to a decline in Middle East economic growth. Of course, the negative effects of foreign conflicts have been more than internal conflicts in the economic growth model.
Economic Growth
mahnaz hoseinpur; kambiz hojabr kiani; fatemeh zandi; ali dehghani; khalil saeedi
Abstract
In this paper, firstly, the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Iran (1980-2016) and MENA countries (2000-2016) is investigated using VAR and PVAR models. Further, the government expenditure multiplier are calculated and compared comparatively using the impulse response functions ...
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In this paper, firstly, the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Iran (1980-2016) and MENA countries (2000-2016) is investigated using VAR and PVAR models. Further, the government expenditure multiplier are calculated and compared comparatively using the impulse response functions of each model. At the end, the effect of each factor is investigated determining the government expenditure multiplier in separate models for Iran and selected countries of the MENA for a better analysis and a closer investigation of the subject. According to the literature, results indicate that: Firstly, the shock of government expenditure in MENA selected countries and Iran, together, led to a relatively strong increase in economic growth. Secondly, in developing countries such as the countries of MENA region, especially in Iran, government- expenditure multipliers were smaller than one and close to zero. The government expenditure multiplier in MENA selected countries is more than Iran in short-term, but in the long run, the government expenditure mulitiplier, in Iran is larger than MENA selected countries. Thirdly, trade openness, public debt, and savings rate both in MENA and in Iran reduce the government expenditure multiplier, but unemployment and financial development increase the multiplier. Public debt has the most impact on the Iranian government expenditure multiplier and trade openness has the most impact in MENA expenditure multiplier.
Economic Growth
Ahmad Chehreghani; Mansour ZaraNejhad
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of Value Added Tax (VAT) on Iran's economic growth. For this purpose, Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) has been used. Data are derived from the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran in 2011, prepared by the Parliament Research Center in ...
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of Value Added Tax (VAT) on Iran's economic growth. For this purpose, Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) has been used. Data are derived from the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran in 2011, prepared by the Parliament Research Center in 2015, which is the latest SAM of Iran. Policy analysis has been carried out in the form of nine scenarios: the VAT with the rates applied in Iran (3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 9%), and the applicable rates (10%, 15% and 20%). In all scenarios, the VAT rate in agriculture sectore is considered zero. The results indicate that VAT has positive impact on Iran's economic growth.
Economic Growth
Abolqasem Esnaashari Amiri; Asqar Abolhasani Histiani; Mohammad Reza Ranjbar Fallah; Bita Shaygani; seyed ghorban malizadeh kolagar
Abstract
Regarding the importance of the relationship between volume of liquidity and GDP in manufacturing sector policy making, using a time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model and Kalman filter approach, the present research studies the GDP's response to effective variables such as capital, labor force, ...
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Regarding the importance of the relationship between volume of liquidity and GDP in manufacturing sector policy making, using a time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model and Kalman filter approach, the present research studies the GDP's response to effective variables such as capital, labor force, and in particular liquidity volume during the period of 1978-2015. The results of estimating the regression model with time varying parameter and the study of the trend of the coefficients of explanatory variables over time show that these coefficients have not been constant over the period under study and have changed due to exogenous shocks such as revolution, war, oil price shocks, applied economic policies, structural changes, international political stances, and economic sanctions. By comparing the trend of changes in the GDP growth rate with changes in the rate of growth of liquidity, it can be said that the trend of changes in these two variables are not proportionate, showing that policy making in the monetary sector has not been efficient. Therefore, it is suggested that the central bank should have an appropriate operational independence and that the rate of liquidity growth vary proportionately with the rate of GDP growth.
Economic Growth
mohammad ali ehsani; hamid La'l-e-Khezri; saleh taheri
Abstract
The unfavorable state of economic growth and government debt to the banking system are two major challenges for the Iran's economy. Given the importance of these variables in the macroeconomics, the study of the relationship between them using modern econometric methods can provide useful implications ...
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The unfavorable state of economic growth and government debt to the banking system are two major challenges for the Iran's economy. Given the importance of these variables in the macroeconomics, the study of the relationship between them using modern econometric methods can provide useful implications for policymakers. Therefore, the present study, with the application of the threshold vector autoregressive and spectral Analysis approaches during the period 1353-1395 reveals new evidence of the relationship between these two variables. The results show that government debt to the banking system has a dual and nonlinear effect on the economic growth. On the other words, if the ratio of debt to production is less than 18.2%, it has a positive effect on economic growth. Through crossing the estimated threshold, its destructive effect appears on economic growth. The impact of bank debt on economic growth is also non-linear and inverse. In addition, in the short and medium run, there is a causal relationship between these two variables. But, in the long run, the causality relationship from economic growth to government debt.
