In collaboration with Payame Noor University and Iranian Association for Energy Economics (IRAEE)

Document Type : ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor Unvierstiy, Tehran, Iran

2 Master of Economics, Payame Noor Unvierstiy, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

In recent decades, the risks and environmental damage caused by economic growth, population growth and energy consumption have become more apparent. Meanwhile, one of the new advances in the study of the relationship between economic factors affecting environmental quality is the attention to the spatial nature of environmental phenomena. Therefore, the aim of this study was to model the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and economic growth along with other influential factors. CO2 emissions as a criterion for environmental pollution in Iran have been studied using the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and in the framework of spatial panel data among the provinces of Iran during the period 2003-2017. The results of this study show that in total, real GDP per capita increases CO2 emissions at the provincial level, because the positive real GDP per capita coefficient is larger than the negative real GDP per capita coefficient of space. Another very important variable in increasing CO2 emissions in the provinces is the intensity of energy consumption and its spatial interruption, which has the highest significant and positive coefficients in the model of this paper. Also, the weighted price of provincial energy and its space interruption have had a significant and negative effect on CO2 emissions. Although increasing the degree of urbanization has not had a significant effect on CO2 emissions in the same province, but increasing the degree of urbanization in neighboring provinces has increased CO2 emissions. Finally, the spatial interruption coefficient of the dependent variable is significant and positive, which shows that the increase in CO2 emissions in neighboring provinces has increased CO2 emissions in the same province.

Keywords

بهبودی، داود؛ فلاحی، فیروز و برقی گل عذابی، اسماعیل (1389). "عوامل اقتصادی و اجتماعی مؤثر بر انتشار سرانه دی اکسید کربن در ایران (۱۳46-1383)". تحقیقات اقتصادی، دوره 90، 17-1.
پژویان، جمشید و تبریزیان، بیتا (1389). "بررسی رابطه رشد اقتصادی و آلودگی زیست‌محیطی با استفاده از یک مدل شبیه‌سازی پویا". پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، دوره 10، شماره 3 (پیاپی 38)، 203-175.
ستوده‌نیا، سلمان؛ احمدی شادمهری، محمدطاهر؛ رزمی، سید محمدجواد و فهیمی‌فرد، سید محمد (1399). "بررسی اثر مالیات سبز بر مصرف انرژی و رفاه اجتماعی در ایران با استفاده از الگوی تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر پویای بازگشتی (RDCGE)". فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، دوره 10، شماره 40، 34-15.
شهبازی، کیومرث؛ حمیدی رزی، داود و فشاری، مجید (1394). "بررسی عوامل مؤثر در انتشار آلودگی هوا در کشورهای حوزۀ دریای خزر: رهیافت مدل دوربین فضایی تابلویی". محیط‌شناسی، دوره 41، شماره 1، دوره 73، 127-107.
صادقی، حسین و سعادت، رحمان (1383). "رشد اقتصادی و اثرات زیست‌محیطی در ایران (یک تحلیل علّی)". تحقیقات اقتصادی، شماره 64، 180-163.
فطرس، محمدحسن و فتحی، ابوذر (1390). "شهرنشینی و آلودگی هوا در ایران". اولین کنفرانس اقتصاد شهری ایران، 16-1.
فطرس، محمدحسن و نسرین‌دوست، میثم (1388). "بررسی رابطه‌ی آلودگی هوا، آلودگی آب، مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی در ایران 83-1359". مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی، دوره 6، شماره ۲۱، 135-113.
محمدزاده، پرویز و اکبری، اکرم (1391). "آزمون فرضیه زیست محیطی کوزنتس در کشورهای منطقه MENA (کاربرد اقتصادسنجی فضایی)". اولین همایش بین‌المللی اقتصادسنجی روش‌ها و کاربردها، 21-1.
مداح، مجید و جعفری، عبدالنظام (1398)، "عوامل مؤثر بر آلودگی هوای ایجاد شده در بخش حمل‏ونقل استان‏های ایران". محیط‏شناسی، دوره 45، شماره 1، 86-77.
مسعودی، نسیم؛ دهمرده قلعه‌نو، نظر و اسفندیاری، مرضیه (1399). "بررسی تأثیر انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر و نوآوری‌های فنی و رشد اقتصادی بر انتشار دی اکسید کربن". فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، دوره 10، شماره 40، 54-35.
مصطفائی، شعبان؛ خداداد کاشی، فرهاد؛ موسوی جهرمی، یگانه (1399). "تأثیر توسعه صنعتی بر کاهش فقر در استان‌های ایران". فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، دوره 10، شماره 38، 60-45.
مهرآرا، محسن؛ امیری، حسین و حسنی سرخ بوزی، محمد (1391). "رابطه مصرف انرژی و درآمد: آزمون فرضیه زیست‌محیطی کوزنتس با استفاده از رویکرد مدل‌های رگرسیونی انتقال ملایم پانل". فصلنامه پژوهش‌ها و سیاست‌های اقتصادی، سال 20، شماره 62، 194-171.
میرشجاعیان‌ حسینی، حسین و رهبر، فرهاد (1390). "بررسی منحنی فضایی زیست محیطی کوزنتس در کشورهای آسیایی (مطالعه‌ی موردی: گاز دی اکسیدکربن و ذرات معلق)". محیط‌شناسی، دوره 37، شماره 58، 14-1.
ناظوری، صدیقه؛ صامتی، مرتضی و شریفی رنانی، حسین (1391). "اثرات آزادسازی تجاری و قوانین و مقررات زیست ‌محیطی بر آلودگی محیط‌زیست بر اساس داده‌های ترکیبی و با استفاده از روش رگرسیون مبتنی بر داده‌های تابلویی (Panel Data) و رهیافت اثرات تصادفی". اولین همایش بین‌المللی اقتصادسنجی سنندج. 102-78.
نجفی‌علمدارلو، حامد؛ مرتضوی، سید ابوالقاسم و شمشادی‌یزدی، کتایون (1392). "کاربرد اقتصادسنجی فضایی در بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر صادرات محصولات کشاورزی در کشورهای عضو اکو: رهیافت داده‌های تابلویی". فصلنامه پژوهش‌های اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)، سال 13، شماره 3، 62-49.
نصراللهی، زهرا و غفاری گولک، مرضیه (1389). "بررسی رابطه‌ی آلودگی هوا و رشد اقتصادی در سطح 28 استان کشور (مطالعه موردی SO2 ,CO2 , NOX)". مجله دانش و توسعه، دوره 17، شماره 33، 184-164.
نوبهار، الهام و قربانی، فهمیده (1400). "بررسی رابطه علّیت فضایی بین مهاجرت، نابرابری درآمد و فقر در شهرستان‌های ایران". فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، دوره 11، شماره 43، 102-83.
Acaravci, A. & Akalin, G. (2017). “Environment–Economic Growth Nexus: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(5), 34–43.
Agras, J. & Chapman, D. (1999). “A Dynamic Approach to the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis”. Ecological Economics, 28, 267– 277.
Ajmi, A. N., Hammaoudeh, S. & Nguyen, D. K. & Sato, J. R. (2015). “On the Relationships Between CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption and Income: The Importance of Time Variation”. Energy Economics, 49, 629–638.
Al-Mulali, U., Saboori, B. & Ozturk, I. (2015). “Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis In Vietnam”. Energy Policy, 76, 123-131.
Ameyaw, B., Yao, L., Oppong, A. & Agyeman, J. (2019). “Investigating, Forecasting and Proposing Emission Mitigation Pathways for CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion Only: A Case Study of Selected Countries”. Energy Policy, 130(1), 7–21.
Amidi, S., Fagheh Majidi, A. & Javaheri, B. (2020). “Growth Spillover: a Spatial Dynamic Panel Data and Spatial Cross Section Data Approaches in Selected Asian Countries”. Future Business Journal, 6(1), 1-14.
Andreoni, J. & Levinson, A. (2001). “The Simple Analytics of the Environmental Kuznets Curve”. Journal of Public Economics, 80, 269–286.
Ang, J. B. (2007). “CO2 Emission, Energy Consumption, and Output in France”. Energy Policy, 35, 4772-4778.
Anselin, L. (1988). “Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models”. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 17-21.
Apergis, N., & Ozturk, I. (2015). “Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Asian Countries”. Ecological Indicators, 52, 16–22.
Balado-Naves, R., Baños-Pino, J. F. & Mayor, M. (2018). “Do Countries Influence Neighbouring Pollution? A Spatial Analysis of the EKC for CO2 Emissions”. Energy Policy, 123, 266–279.
Baltagi, B. H. (2005). “Econometric Analysis of Panel Data”. 3rd ed. Wiley, Chichester, 197-200.
Belotti, F., Hughes, G. & Mortari, A. P. (2013). “XSMLE-A Command to Estimate Spatial Panel Models in Stata”. German Stata Users Group Meeting, Potsdam, Alemania, 1–18.
Bimonte, S. (2002). “Information Access, Income Distribution, and the Environmental Kuznets Curve”. Ecological Economics, 41, 145–156.
Bockstael, N. E. (1996). “Modeling Economics and Ecology: The Importance of a Spatial Perspective”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 78, 1168–1180.
Burnett, J. W., Bergstrom, J. C. & Wetzstein, M. E. (2013). “Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth in the U.S”. Journal of Policy Modeling, 35(6), 1014–1028.
Chen, H., Jian, B. & Lau, S. S. Y. (2008). “Sustainable Urban Form for Chinese Compact Cities: Challenges of a Rapid Urbanized Economy”. Habitat International, 32, 28–40.
Cole, M. A., Rayner, A. J. & Bates, J. M. (1997). “The Environmental Kuznets Curve: an Empirical Analysis”. Environment and Development Economics, 2, 401-416.
Ding, Y., Zhang, M., Chen, S., Wang, W. & Nie, R. (2019). “The Environmental Kuznets Curve for PM2.5 Pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China: A Spatial Panel Data Approach”. Journal of Cleaner Production, 220, 984–994.
Elhorst, J. P. (2003). “Specification and Estimation of Spatial Panel Data Models”. International Regional Science Review, 26, 244–268.
Elhorst, J. P. (2014). “Spatial Econometrics from Cross-Sectional Data to Spatial Panels”. Springer, Berlin, 37-93.
Fong, L. S., Salvo, A. & Taylor, D. (2020). “Evidence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Atmospheric Pollutant Emissions in Southeast Asia and Implications for Sustainable Development: A Spatial Econometric Approach”. Sustainable Development, 1–16.
Galeotti, M. (2007). “Economic Growth and the Quality of the Environment: Taking Stock, Environment”, Development and Sustainability, 9, 427-454.
Ge, X., Zhou, Z., Zhou, Y., Ye, X. & Liu, S. (2018). “A Spatial Panel Data Analysis of Economic Growth, Urbanization, and NOx Emissions in China”. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(725), 1-20.
Getis, A. (2010). “Spatial Autocorrelation”. in: Fischer MM, Getis A (eds.) Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis: Software Tools, Methods, and Applications, Springer Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, 255-277.
Grossman, G. M. & Krueger, A. B. (1991). “Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement”. NBER Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research: Cambridge, MA, USA. No. 3914, 1-57.
Grossman, G. M. & Krueger, A. B. (1993). “Environmental impacts of the North American Free Trade Agreement”. In: Garber, P. (Eds.) The U.S. –Mexico Free Trade Agreement, 13–56.
Hao, Y., Liu, Y., Weng, J. H. & Gao, Y. (2016). “Does the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Coal Consumption in China Exist? New Evidence from Spatial Econometric Analysis”. Energy, 114, 1214–1223.
Hao, Y., Wu, Y., Wang, L. & Huang, J. (2018). “Re-Examine Environmental Kuznets Curve in China: Spatial Estimations Using Environmental Quality Index”. Sustainable Cities and Society, 42, 498–511.
Holtz-Eakin, D. & Selden, T. M. (1995). “Stoking the Fires? CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth”. Journal of Public Economic, 57, 85–101.
Hossein, M. D. S. (2011). “Panel Estimation for CO2 Emission, Economic Growth, Trade Openness and Urbanization of Newly Industrialized Countries”. Energy Policy, 39, 334-357.
Jiang, M., Kim, E. & Woo, Y. (2020). “The Relationship between Economic Growth and Air Pollution—A Regional Comparison between China and South Korea”. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(8), 2761, 1-20.
Jones, D. W. (2004). “Urbanization and Energy”. Encyclopedia of Energy. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science. 329–335.
Kang, Y. Q., Zhao, T. & Yang, Y. Y. (2016). “Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 Emissions in China: A Spatial Panel Data Approach”. Ecological Indicators, 63, 231–239.
Keller, W. (2004). “International Technology Diffusion”. Journal of Economic Literature, 42, 752–782.
Koilo, V. (2019), “Evidence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Unleashing the Opportunity of Industry 4.0 in Emerging Economies”. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(122), 1-18.
Komen, R., Gerking, S. & Folmer, H. (1997). “Income and Environmental R&D: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries”. Environment and Development Economics, 2, 505–515.
Kuznets, S. (1955). “Economic Growth and Income Inequality”. American Economic Review, 65, 1–28.
LeSage, J. & Pace, R. K. (2009). “Introduction and Motivating and Interpreting Spatial Econometric Models”. In: Balakrishnan, N., Schucany, W.R. (Eds.), Introduction to Spatial Econometrics. CRC Press/Taylor& Francis Group, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 1–42.
Lieb, C. M. (2003). “The Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Survey of the Empirical Evidence and of Possible Causes”. Discussion Paper, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics: Heidelberg, Germany, Series No. 391, 1-63.
Maddison, D. (2006). “Environmental Kuznets Curves: A Spatial Econometric Approach”. The Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 51(2), 218-230.
Maddison, D. J. (2007). “Modelling Sulphur Emissions in Europe: a Spatial Econometric Approach”. Oxford. Economic Papers, 59, 726–743.
Madlener, R. & Sunak, Y. (2011). “Impacts of Urbanization on Urban Structures and Energy Demand: What Can We Learn from Urban Energy Planning and Urbanization Management?” Sustainable Cities and Society, 1, 45-53.
Mahmood, H. (2020), “CO2 Emissions, Financial Development, Trade, and Income in North America: A Spatial Panel Data Approach”. SAGE Open, October-December, 2020, 1–15.
Markusen, J. R., Morey, E. R. & Olewiler, N. (1995) “Competition in Regional Environmental Policies When Plant Locations are Endogenous”. Journal of Public Economics, 56(1), 55–77.
Mazzanti, M. & Zoboli, R. (2005). “The Drivers of Environmental Innovation in Local Manufacturing Systems”. Economia Politica, 22, 399-436.
Meng, L. & Huang, B. (2018). “Shaping the Relationship Between Economic Development and Carbon Dioxide Emissions at the Local Level: Evidence from Spatial Econometric Models”. Environmental and Resource Economics, 71, 127–156.
Mosconi, E. M., Colantoni, A., Gambella, F., Cudlinová, E., Salvati, L. & Rodrigo-Comino, J. (2020). “Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Spatial Interaction between Economy and Territory”. Economies, 8, 74, 1-20.
Munksgaard, J. & Pedersen, K. (2000). “Impact of Household Consumption on CO2 Emissions”. Energy Economics, 22, 423-440.
Pan, X., Liu, Q. & Peng, X. (2015). “Spatial Club Convergence of Regional Energy Efficiency in China”. Ecological Indicators, 51, 25-30.
Panayotou, T. (1993). “Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Stages of Economic Development”. Working Paper, Technology and Employment Programme; International Labor Office: Geneva, Switzerland, WEP 2-22/WP.238, 1-43.
Parikh, J. & Shukla, V. (1995). “Urbanization, Energy Use and Greenhouse Effects in Economic Development”. Global Environment Change, 5, 87-103.
Pontarollo, N. & Serpieri, C. (2020). “Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis on Land Use: The Case of Romania”. Land Use Policy, 97 (2020) 1046952, 1-15.
Porter, M. E. & Van der Linde, C. (1995). “Toward a New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship”. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9, 97-118.
Rupasingha, A., Goetz, S. J. & Debertin, D. L. & Pagoulatos, A. (2004). “The Environmental Kuznets Curve for US Counties: a Spatial Econometric Analysis with Extensions”. Papers in Regional Science, 83, 407–424.
Shahbaz, M., Solarin, S. A., Sbia, R., & Bibi, S. (2015). “Does Energy Intensity Contribute to CO2 Emissions? A Trivariate Analysis in Selected African Countries”. Ecological Indicators, 50, 215–224.
Suri, V. & Chapman, D. (1998). “Economic Growth, Trade and Energy: Implications for the Environmental Kuznets Curve”. Ecological Economics, 25, 195-208.
Tevie, J., Grimsrud, K. M. & Berrens, R. P. (2011). “Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Biodiversity Risk in the US: A Spatial Econometric Approach”. Sustainability, 3, 2182–2199.
Tobler, Waldo R. (1970). “A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in the Detroit Region”. Economic Geography (Supplement: Proceedings, International Geographical Union. Commission on Quantitative Methods, 46, 234–240.
Ulucak, R., Yücel, A. G. & Koçak, E. (2019). “The Process of Sustainability: From Past to Present”. In B. Ozcan & I. Ozturk (Eds.), Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC): A Manual Academic Press, 37–53.
Vukina, T., Beghin, J. C. & Solakoglu, E. G. (1999). “Transition to Markets and the Environment: Effects of the Change in the Composition of Manufacturing Output”. Environment and Development Economics, 4, 582-598.
Wang, X. & Zhou, D. (2021). “Analyzing China’s Provincial Environmental Emissions and its Influencing Factors: A Spatial Analysis”. Research Gate, CC BY 4.0, 1-19.
Wang, Y., Kang, L., Wu, X. & Xiao, Y. (2013). “Estimating the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Ecological Footprint at the Global Level: A Spatial Econometric Approach”. Ecological Indicators, 34, 15–21.
Wenger, M. (1993). “Reduction of CO2 Emissions of Transport by Reorganization of Urban Activities”. Paper presented at the seminar of the Special Interest Group Transport and Spatial Development of the World Conference on Transport Research (WCTRS) in Black heath, Australia, 1-17.
Xu, W., Sun, J., Liu, Y., Xiao, Y., Tian, Y., Zhao, B. & Zhang, X. (2019). “Spatiotemporal Variation and Socioeconomic Drivers of Air Pollution in China During 2005–2016”. Journal of Environmental Management, 245, 66–75.
York, R. (2007). “Demographic Trends and Energy Consumption in European Union Nations, 1960–2025”. Social Science Research, 36(3), 855–872.
Yu, J., de Jong, R. & Lee, L. F. (2012). “Estimation for Spatial Dynamic Panel Data with Fixed Effects: the Case of Spatial Cointegration”. Journal of Econometrics, 167(1), 16-37.
Zhang, J., Zhang, K. & Zhao, F. (2020). “Spatial Effects of Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and Environmental Pollution in the Provinces of China—An empirical Study of a Spatial Econometrics Model”. Sustainable Development, 28(4), 868–879.
Zhao, X., Burnett, J., Wesley, J. & Fletcher, J. (2013). “Spatial Analysis of China Provincial-Level CO2 Emission Intensity”. Selected Paper Prepared for Presentation at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association, 1-25.
Zhu, W., Wang, M. & Zhang, B. (2019). “The Effects of Urbanization on PM2.5 Concentrations in China's Yangtze River Economic Belt: New Evidence from Spatial Econometric Analysis”. Journal of Cleaner Production, 239, 118065, 1-1.