Document Type : ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Authors

• yazdan gudarzi farahani ¹
• Zoleikha Morsali Arzanagh ²
• Mohsen Mehrara ³
• ebrahim abbasi ⁴

¹ استادیار گروه اقتصاد اسلامی، دانشکده عولم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران

² گروه حسابداری و مدیریت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد کرج، کرج، ایران

³ استاد دانشگاه تهران

⁴ گروه مدیریت مالی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to investigate the effects of uncertainty of economic policies in business cycles on macroeconomic variables. In this study, a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium approach and statistical data for the period 1370-1401 have been used. In this study, based on the analysis of the period of boom and recession, the shock from the uncertainty component of economic policy in this period was investigated on macroeconomic variables. The obtained results have shown that during the boom period, the effects of economic policy uncertainty shock on variables such as production, investment, and consumption were less than during the recession period, and during the recession period, the negative effect of this shock on the mentioned variables was more severe. In addition to this, the effect of economic policy uncertainty shock on the variables of inflation rate, interest rate and exchange rate has also been positive during economic boom and recession and has led to an increase in these nominal variables.

Keywords

• Uncertainty
• economic policy
• business cycle
• dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model

Main Subjects

• s