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HASAN ZARINEGHBAL; ahamad jafari samimi; Amir Mansour Tehranchian
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 33-54
Abstract
This article has endeavored to study in experimental survey, the effect of Central Bank Independence (CBI) on the output and inflation fluctuations in the Iranian economy, using vector Autoregressive (VAR) econometrics method. For this purpose, we started with the changes in output and inflation stability ...
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This article has endeavored to study in experimental survey, the effect of Central Bank Independence (CBI) on the output and inflation fluctuations in the Iranian economy, using vector Autoregressive (VAR) econometrics method. For this purpose, we started with the changes in output and inflation stability in bringing about good economic performance, over the period 1961-2014 years. The paper has introduced a new legal combined Central Bank Independence index, by the name of "Average (Mean) Index". According to the 40% amount of total on the base of this new index, it has been cleared that there was independence just during 1340-1361 period. The results of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) method indicated that the inflation and output variances trends were approximately inverse over this period, except in some short periods. The estimation of study model revealed the negative and significant of Central Bank Independence effect on output and inflation variances. It means an increase in Central Bank Independence will cause decreasing their fluctuations and will results more macroeconomic stability and better economic performance. According to the result of Variance Decomposition and analysis of Impulse- Response Functions, the positive impact of central bank independence on macroeconomic stability has been confirmed, but it was much more effective on the nominal sector and shrinking the inflation uncertainty than real sector and output instability.
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Sima Eskandari Sabzi; Asadolah Farzinvash; Kambiz Hojabr Kiani; Hamid Shahrestani
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 101-116
Abstract
Economic instability affects the domestic money that economic agents are willing to hold. For example in an uncertain inflationary environment, they prefer to less demand for money and use those asset which has less risk of maintenance, such as foreign currency and foreign assets. The use of foreign ...
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Economic instability affects the domestic money that economic agents are willing to hold. For example in an uncertain inflationary environment, they prefer to less demand for money and use those asset which has less risk of maintenance, such as foreign currency and foreign assets. The use of foreign currency as a store of value is "dollarization". This study examines the impact of economic instability on the unofficial dollarization in Iran. For this purpose, we estimate the degree of dollarization by Kamin and Ericsson (2003) and El-Erian (1988) method, then obtain a composite macroeconomic instability index with the consumer price index, exchange rate, stock of international reserves, interest rate and budget deficit, then examine by using a vector auto regression model over the period of 1979 to 2014. The results indicate that economic instability affects dollarization positively. The impulse response function shows that a one-standard error shock in instability increases dollarization at first, and gradually reduced. The results of variance decomposition also show that in long term instability index can explain fluctuation of the dollarization.
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Nader Mehregan; Ezatollah Abbasian; Saeed Isazadeh; ebrahim faraji
Volume 8, Issue 29 , December 2017, , Pages 17-30
Abstract
New economies undergo significant short-run variations in aggregate output and employment. Understanding the causes of aggregate fluctuations is a central goal of macroeconomics. RBC models consider real shocks as the main cause of business cycles. Within RBC models, the purposes of this study are estimating ...
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New economies undergo significant short-run variations in aggregate output and employment. Understanding the causes of aggregate fluctuations is a central goal of macroeconomics. RBC models consider real shocks as the main cause of business cycles. Within RBC models, the purposes of this study are estimating the real shocks of Iran’s economy and investigating its effects on the economy’s fluctuations. For these purposes, a method that is introduced by McCallum (1989) has been applied during the years 1959-2014. According to the results presented in this study, the highest amount of persistency of the real shocks is related to the oil sector then to the agricultural sector. The variability of oil sector shocks is much more than the variability of agriculture sector shocks. A periodic manner with parallel and durable fluctuations can be seen in the shocks. Negative effects are more intense than positive effects. It seems, Iran’s economy undergoes five real business cycles in 56-year of the study. Also, the production fluctuations due to real shocks are a hump-shape process. These fluctuations peak after 1 or 2 years, then decline.
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Mohammad Jafari
Volume 8, Issue 29 , December 2017, , Pages 61-76
Abstract
Due to the important role of economic globalization in income inequality of countries, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the non-linear impact of economic globalization on income inequality in Iran during 1979-2014. For this purpose, is used the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The ...
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Due to the important role of economic globalization in income inequality of countries, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the non-linear impact of economic globalization on income inequality in Iran during 1979-2014. For this purpose, is used the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The estimated Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model supports a nonlinear threshold behavior in the relationship between economic globalization and income inequality in the country in a two regime structures with positive effect and a threshold level of about 26/15%. so that increases the intensity of this positive impact with crossing threshold level and entering the second regime.
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Teymor Rahmani; Elnaz Bagherpur Oskoei
Volume 7, Issue 28 , September 2017, , Pages 71-82
Abstract
The effect of saving on investment and economic growth is an important issue in both economic theory and policy. Also, having high and stable economic growth is of importance for all economies. On the other hand, inflation and its adverse effects (especially on economic growth) is one of the main economic ...
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The effect of saving on investment and economic growth is an important issue in both economic theory and policy. Also, having high and stable economic growth is of importance for all economies. On the other hand, inflation and its adverse effects (especially on economic growth) is one of the main economic problems in many developing countries. This study examines the relationship between the rate of saving and economic growth in developing countries with low and high inflation rates. In other words, since there have been high inflation rates in some developing countries including Iran, we examine the developments in the saving rates and economic growth and the effect of inflation on their relationship. The hypothesis we test is that higher inflation cause the effect of saving on economic growth to be lower. For this purpose, a sample of a panel data for 67 developing countries over the time period 1995-2014 is used. Our empirical results imply that higher inflation has a negative significant effect on the relationship between the rate of saving and economic growth. In effect, our main finding is that the effect of the rate of saving on the economic growth is higher for developing countries with lower inflation rates.
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mohammad hasan fotros; sudeh ghodsi
Volume 7, Issue 27 , July 2017, , Pages 45-64
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to measure multidimensional poverty index (MPI) based on Alkire and Foster method and analyzing incidence and intensity of poverty in Iran in three dimensions for the period of 1989-2014. In this study, households’ income-expenditure raw data published by the ...
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The main objective of this paper is to measure multidimensional poverty index (MPI) based on Alkire and Foster method and analyzing incidence and intensity of poverty in Iran in three dimensions for the period of 1989-2014. In this study, households’ income-expenditure raw data published by the Statistical Center of Iran was used. The results show that the incidence and intensity and MPI are decreased in this period of study. The most incidence and intensity of poverty belongs to 1989. Also, the poverty incidence of rural areas is more than in urban areas in 1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, and 2014, but intensity of poverty in rural areas is more than urban areas in all years. Finally, the development plans have decreased MPI during all the period of 1989-2014.
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Mohammad Mahdi Bargi Oskooee; Mohammad Khodaverdizadeh; Saber Khodaverdizadeh; Ali Vafamand
Volume 7, Issue 27 , July 2017, , Pages 65-80
Abstract
This paper investigates the threshold effects of income inequality on economic growth in developing countries for the period of 2000 to 2012, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. The linearity test results indicate strongly nonlinear relationship among variables under consideration. ...
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This paper investigates the threshold effects of income inequality on economic growth in developing countries for the period of 2000 to 2012, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. The linearity test results indicate strongly nonlinear relationship among variables under consideration. Moreover, considering one transition function and one threshold parameter, as a two regime model, is sufficient to specification of nonlinear relationship among variables.The results indicate thatthreshold value for developing countries is 0.43 and the estimated slopeparameter is 0.35. In the first regime the impact of income inequality is positive and in the second regime has a negative impact on economic growth. human capital in the both regimes has symmetric and consistent effect on economic growth. Other results indicate that population growth and trade openness had been asymmetric effect on economic growth in the both regimes.
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Hassan Daliri
Volume 7, Issue 26 , February 2017, , Pages 81-96
Abstract
On the theoretical front the literature on the linkage between FDI and domestic investment is ambiguous. This paper investigates whether foreign direct investment crowds in or crowds out domestic investment in the world. Our data analysis covers 136 of the world countries for the period 2000-2013. This ...
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On the theoretical front the literature on the linkage between FDI and domestic investment is ambiguous. This paper investigates whether foreign direct investment crowds in or crowds out domestic investment in the world. Our data analysis covers 136 of the world countries for the period 2000-2013. This paper uses panel VAR model and we have four samples of countries: 1- total sample (136 countries) 2- OECD member (31 countries) 3- low income (20 countries) 4- OPEC member (10 countries). In addition, the same link in Iran in the period 1990-2014 were analyzed separately. Our main conclusion is that FDI has positive impact on domestic investment in OECD member and OPEC member states but has negetive impact on domestic investment in low income contries. Also, domestic investment has positive impact on FDI in OECD, Low income and total countries and negetive impact in OPEC members.
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mohamad ali ehsani; hadi keshavarz; Masoud Keshavarz
Volume 7, Issue 26 , February 2017, , Pages 125-144
Abstract
Monetary and fiscal policies are considered of high significance in the economic stabilization policies that are utilized to manage the demand side, but economic experts do not agree upon this policy and its results. This is worthwhile to mention that the source issues in the agreement or disagreement ...
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Monetary and fiscal policies are considered of high significance in the economic stabilization policies that are utilized to manage the demand side, but economic experts do not agree upon this policy and its results. This is worthwhile to mention that the source issues in the agreement or disagreement with this policy are the differences of opinions about the effects of this policy on the economy. This study attempts to investigate the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the labor market fluctuations via the adjustment to the new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in Iranian economy. After estimating the model using Bayesian approach, the model was simulated. The results of variance decomposition show that government employment was the largest role in explaining the fluctuations in unemployment and monetary shocks play the most important role in private sector employment. Impulser response functions also show that monetary shock, government employment shock and oil revenues shock reduce the total unemployment
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mostafa eskandary; Ali Nasiri Aghdam; Hamid Mohammadi; Hamidreza Mirzaei
Volume 7, Issue 25 , November 2016, , Pages 51-64
Abstract
Subsidy with distortion of prices prevents optimal allocation of resources and decrease economic growth and on the other hand has an irreparable effects on country economic sectors, Thus by determining the trend of macroeconomic variables (production changes, price changes, etc.), economic policymakers ...
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Subsidy with distortion of prices prevents optimal allocation of resources and decrease economic growth and on the other hand has an irreparable effects on country economic sectors, Thus by determining the trend of macroeconomic variables (production changes, price changes, etc.), economic policymakers become closer to economic goals. In this study, using 65 parts input–output table (2013 table) that modified and updated according to the (RAS) 65 parts input – output table in 2006), the impact of increasing in price of energy carriers (gasoline, kerosene, gas oil, fuel oil, liquid gas, electricity and natural gas) in first (2010) and second (2014) phases of subsidy reform have been investigated on the growth rate of economic sectors. The results showed that the average growth rate of transportation (-16.13%) and industries and mines (-17.37%) decreased and this is due to high dependence on energy, followed by an average high relative price of 2.25 and 1.53 percent, respectively. The average growth rate of agricultural sectors increased (8.45%) and this is due to low dependence on energy carriers followed by the average of low relative price (0.8028). Also coal production had the lowest growth rate, which can be concluded that energy carriers is replaced by coal.
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Mohammad Hassan Fotros; ali dalaei milan
Volume 7, Issue 25 , November 2016, , Pages 65-84
Abstract
Planning for economic development and making a decision for the implementation of economic policies, need to understand the performance of the whole economy, including the official sector and the underground sector. Understanding the performance of the whole economy requires to know economic information ...
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Planning for economic development and making a decision for the implementation of economic policies, need to understand the performance of the whole economy, including the official sector and the underground sector. Understanding the performance of the whole economy requires to know economic information system situation and its efficiency. This study used a DSGE model framework for modelling the underground economy and the effect of oil shock, fiscal impulses (such as changing tax rates) and the shock of productivity on the official economy and underground economy. The results of the evaluation showed that the present model was well able to simulate cyclical behavior and volatility of the variables. The results also showed that a positive impulse to the productivity of official sector caused an increase in official production and a decrease in underground economy and this consequently reduced tax evasion and increased government revenue. On the contrary an impulse to the underground sector productivity of, leaded to a decrease in official production, an increase in underground production and consequently an increase in tax evasion and reducing the government's revenues. Furthermore, a positive shock in the corporate tax rate and income tax rate reduced the official production, increased underground production and tax evasion and decreased government revenue. Positive shock to oil revenues increased official production and reduced underground economy and consequently reduced tax evasion and increased revenue for the government..
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Mani Motameni
Volume 6, Issue 23 , May 2016, , Pages 44-33
Abstract
This study tries to investigate wage-productivity relation in Iranian manufacturing industries. For this purpose, 21 rows of ISIC categories of Iranian factories have been used during years of 1998-2012. Panel data Econometric method has been applied for data processing in homogenous and heterogeneous ...
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This study tries to investigate wage-productivity relation in Iranian manufacturing industries. For this purpose, 21 rows of ISIC categories of Iranian factories have been used during years of 1998-2012. Panel data Econometric method has been applied for data processing in homogenous and heterogeneous mode. The initial result shows a unique explanation could not be found regarding productivity reaction to wage in different manufacturing industries. Therefore, the industries have been divided to two separate groups: the industries with high and low human capital. Then, wage-productivity relation has been tested separately for each group. The results show wage-productivity relation occurs in the industries with higher human capital. In other words, productivity will be increased by wage rising. However, there is not wage-productivity relation for the industries with low human capital.
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Somayeh Hasanvand; Mansour Zarra-Nezhad; Amir Hossein Montazer-Hojat
Volume 6, Issue 22 , January 2016, , Pages 118-103
Abstract
The shadow economy is a real phenomenon with significant and complex concepts that requires deep study and attention. For all the countries of the worldespecially developing countries which possess a more expanded volume of these activities, always there are concerns about the growing tendency of shadow ...
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The shadow economy is a real phenomenon with significant and complex concepts that requires deep study and attention. For all the countries of the worldespecially developing countries which possess a more expanded volume of these activities, always there are concerns about the growing tendency of shadow economy. Due to the hidden nature of the shadow economy and its unregistration, official statistics don’t reveal the exact status of the governmental economy and since these statistics are applied to policy- making, inexact figures and information can lead to inappropriate political responses. In the present paper, the aim is to investigate the effect of unemployment rate on the shadow economy in 67 developing countries in period of 1999-2009. The paper’s data analysis is System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) approach. By and large, the results of this approach show that in the countries under study the unemployment rate has a positive effect on the shadow economy.
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ali younessi; Hadi Ghafari; Mohammad Hossein Porkazemi; Farhad Khodadad Kashi
Volume 6, Issue 22 , January 2016, , Pages 164-145
Abstract
Increase in government spending can lead to increase in production, supply of public goods and services as well as utility. However, it should be noted that increasing the role of government in the economy will cause crowding out of the private sector and this will reduce the utility.
The present study ...
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Increase in government spending can lead to increase in production, supply of public goods and services as well as utility. However, it should be noted that increasing the role of government in the economy will cause crowding out of the private sector and this will reduce the utility.
The present study is looking for Iran's optimal growth rate of government's spending using time series data in the years 1978-2014. via a dynamic optimal control theory approach and the maximum principle.
The results show that, the optimal growth rate of government’s expenditure is 7% and the main factors affecting this rate is the ratio of private and public sector investment. Therefore, the current growth rate of government’s spending is not optimal and the government needs to control the growth rate of spending especially current expenditure.