In collaboration with Payame Noor University and Iranian Association for Energy Economics (IRAEE)

Authors

1 M.A. in Economics, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, Iran

2 Professor of Economics, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, Iran

Abstract

The shadow economy is a real phenomenon with significant and complex concepts that requires deep study and attention. For all the countries of the worldespecially developing countries which possess a more expanded volume of these activities, always there are concerns about the growing tendency of shadow economy. Due to the hidden nature of the shadow economy and its unregistration, official statistics don’t reveal the exact status of the governmental economy and since these statistics are applied to policy- making, inexact figures and information can lead to inappropriate political responses. In the present paper, the aim is to investigate the effect of unemployment rate on the shadow economy in 67 developing countries in period of 1999-2009. The paper’s data analysis is System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) approach. By and large, the results of this approach show that in the countries under study the unemployment rate has a positive effect on the shadow economy.

Keywords

Main Subjects

ابونوری، اسمعیل و نیک‌پور، عبدالحامد (1393). "اثر شاخص‌های بار مالیاتی بر حجم اقتصاد پنهان در ایران". فصلنامه‌ علمی پژوهشی، پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، دوره‌ 5، شماره 17، 90-75.
خندان، عباس (1388). "برآورد شاخصی از اندازه اقتصاد غیر رسمی ایران طی سال‌های 1386-1350 با تمرکز بر تأثیر دخالت‌های اختلال‌زای دولت به روش EMIMIC (مدل نشانگرهای چندگانه- علل چندگانه و مدل تصحیح خطا)". پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد دانشگاه صنعتی شریف.
عرب مازار یزدی، علی (1380). "اقتصاد سیاه در ایران: اندازه، علل و آثار آن در سه دهه اخیر". فصلنامه برنامه و بودجه، دوره‌ 6، شماره‌ 62 و 63، 60-3.
عمادزاده، مصطفی و رفیعی طباطبایی، زهرا (1389). "تحلیلی پیرامون اقتصاد زیرزمینی و عوامل مؤثر بر آن در منتخبی از کشورهای توسعه یافته". پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان، دوره‌ 7، شماره‌ 13، 96-83.
کریمی پتانلار، سعید؛ نادمی، یونس و زبیری، هدی (1394). "اندازه دولت و بیکاری در اقتصاد ایران"، فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، سال 5، شماره 18، 64-51.
نصراللهی، زهرا؛ فرزانگان، محمدرضا و طالعی اردکانی، سمانه (1391). "بررسی روند تحولات اقتصاد سایه‌ای در ایران (مقایسه نرم‌افزارهای مدل‌سازی آموس گرافیک و لیزرل)". فصلنامه پژوهش‌های اقتصادی، دوره‌ 12، شماره‌ 2، 92-61.
 
 
 
Alexandru, A., Dobre, I. & Ghinararu, C. (2010a). “Revisiting the Relationship between Unemployment Rate and the Size of the Shadow Economy for United States Using Johansen Approach for Cointegration”. Proceedings of the 11th wseas international conference on mathematics and computers in business and economics (pp: 199-204). World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society (WSEAS).
Alexandru, A.; Dobre, I. & Ghinararu, C. (2010b). “The Relationship between Shadow Economy and Unemployment Rate: A SVAR Approach”. In Proceedings of the 5th WSEAS International Conference on Economy and Management Transformation, (Volume I), Timisoara, Romania: 242-249.
Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991). “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”. The Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297.
Arimah, B.C. (2001). “Nature and Determinants of the Linkages between Informal and Formal Sector Enterprises in Nigeria”, African Development Review, 13(1), 114-131.
Baltagi, B. (1995). “The Econometric Analysis of Panel Data”. Wiley, New York, NY.
Buehn, A. & Schneider, F. (2012). “Shadow Economies Around The World: Novel Insights, Accepted Knowledge, and New Estimates”. International Tax and Public Finance, 19(1), 139-171.
Davidescu, A. A. M. & Dobre, I. (2012). “The Causal Relationship between Unemployment Rate and U.S. Shadow Economy”. A Toda-Yamamoto Approach. Social and economic statistics. 1(1), 21-33
Dell’Anno, R. & Solomon, O. H. (2008). “Shadow Economy and Unemployment Rate in USA: Is There a Structural Relationship? An Ampirical Analysis”. Applied Economics, 40(19), 2537-2555.
Dell’Anno, R. (2008). “What is the Relationship between Unofficial and Official Economy? An Analysis in Latin American Countries”. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 12, 185-203.
Elgin, C. & Oztunali, O. (2012). “Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates”. Bogazici University Department of Economics Working Papers, 5.
Enste, D. H. (2003). “Shadow Economy and Institutional Change in Transition Countries. The Informal Economy in the EU Accession Countries: Size, Scope, Trends and Challenges to the Process of EU Enlargement”. Centre for the Study of Democracy, Sofia, 81-113.
Eugenio-Martín, J., Martín Morales, N. & Scarpa, R. (2004). “Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach”. Milan, Italy, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Nota di Lavoro, (26); 1-28.
Feld, L. P. & Schneider, F. (2010). “Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries”. German Economic Review, 11(2), 109-149.
Gerxhani, K. (2004). “The Informal Sector in Developed and Less Developed Countries: A Literature Survey”. Public Choice, 120(3), 267-300.
Giles, D. E. Tedds, L. M. & Werkneh, G. (2002). “The Canadian Underground and Measured Economies: Granger Causality Results”. Applied Economics, 34(18), 2347-2352.
Giles, D.E.A. & Tedds, L.M. (2002). “Taxes and the Canadian Underground Economy”. Canadian Tax paper, (106), Canadian Tax Foundation, Toronto, Canada.
Jamalmanesh, A. (2011).” Institutional Governance Effect on the Shadow Economy in Developing Countries: A Panel Data Analysis”. American Journal of Scientific Research, 22, 30-42.
Nikopour, H. & Shah Habibullah, M. (2010). “Shadow Economy and Poverty”. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1/23599/11//MPRA_paper_23599.pdf (access 25 Feb 2013).
Nikopour, H., Shah Habibullah, M. & Schneider, F. (2008). “The Shadow Economy Kuznets’s Curve Panel Data Analysis”.1-26. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12956/1/MPRA_paper_12956.pdf (access 25 Feb 2013).
Nikopour, H., Shah Habibullah, M., Schneider, F. & Law, S. H. (2009). “Foreign Direct Investment and Shadow Economy: A Causality Analysis Using Panel Data”. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14485/ (access 25 Feb 2013).
OECD (2009). “Is Informal Normal? Towards More and Better Jobs”. OECD, Paris.
Okun, A. M. (1962). “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance, Proceedings of the Business and Economics Section”. American Statistical Association, Washington D. C., USA, 98-103.
Oviedo, A. M., Thomas, M. R. & Karakurum-Özdemir, K. (2009). “Economic Informality: Causes, Costs, and Policies: A Literature Survey”. (No. 167). World Bank-free PDF.
Pedersen, S. (2003). “The Shadow Economy in Germany, Great Britain and Scandinavia: A Measurement based on Questionnaire Surveys”. (Vol. 10). Rockwool Foundation Research Unit.
Sameti, M. & AlBooSoveilem, M. (2009). “Impact Participation Rate and Unemployment Rateon Underground Economy in OECD Countries”. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics, 6(2), 63-88.
Schneider, F. & Klinglmair, R. (2004). “Shadow Economies Around the World: What Do We Know? Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research”, IZA Discussion Paper (1043). CESifo Working Paper Series (1167) Working Paper Series, 1-58.
Schneider, F. (2005). “Shadow Economies Around the World: What do we Really Know?” European Journal of Political Economy, 21(3), 598-642.
Schneider, F., Buehn, A. & Montenegro, C. E. (2010). “New Estimates for the Shadow Economies All Over the World”. International Economic Journal, 24(4), 443-461.
Tanzi, V. (1999). “Uses and Abuses of Estimates of the Underground Economy”, The Economic Journal, 109, 338-347.
Tanzi, V. (2000). “Policies, Institutions and the Dark Side of Economics”. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar: 209.
Thomas, Jim J. (1992). “Informal Economic Activity”. LSE, Handbooks in Economics.
Torgler, B. & Schneider, F. (2007). “Shadow Economy, Tax Morale, Governance and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis”.1-54. http://www.econ.jku.at/schneider /AER_Torgler.pdf.
Valentini, E. (2007). “Inequality and Underground Economy: A Not so Easy Relationship”. Universita Politecnica Delle Marche, Quaderni Di Ricerca, (283).
Wiggins, V. & Poi, B. (2003). “Testing for Panel-Level Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation”. StataCorp FAQs. Retrieved on April, 3, 2008.