Economic Growth
Abolqasem Esnaashari Amiri; Asqar Abolhasani Histiani; Mohammad Reza Ranjbar Fallah; Bita Shaygani; seyed ghorban malizadeh kolagar
Abstract
Regarding the importance of the relationship between volume of liquidity and GDP in manufacturing sector policy making, using a time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model and Kalman filter approach, the present research studies the GDP's response to effective variables such as capital, labor force, ...
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Regarding the importance of the relationship between volume of liquidity and GDP in manufacturing sector policy making, using a time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model and Kalman filter approach, the present research studies the GDP's response to effective variables such as capital, labor force, and in particular liquidity volume during the period of 1978-2015. The results of estimating the regression model with time varying parameter and the study of the trend of the coefficients of explanatory variables over time show that these coefficients have not been constant over the period under study and have changed due to exogenous shocks such as revolution, war, oil price shocks, applied economic policies, structural changes, international political stances, and economic sanctions. By comparing the trend of changes in the GDP growth rate with changes in the rate of growth of liquidity, it can be said that the trend of changes in these two variables are not proportionate, showing that policy making in the monetary sector has not been efficient. Therefore, it is suggested that the central bank should have an appropriate operational independence and that the rate of liquidity growth vary proportionately with the rate of GDP growth.
Economic Growth
mohammad ali ehsani; hamid La'l-e-Khezri; saleh taheri
Abstract
The unfavorable state of economic growth and government debt to the banking system are two major challenges for the Iran's economy. Given the importance of these variables in the macroeconomics, the study of the relationship between them using modern econometric methods can provide useful implications ...
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The unfavorable state of economic growth and government debt to the banking system are two major challenges for the Iran's economy. Given the importance of these variables in the macroeconomics, the study of the relationship between them using modern econometric methods can provide useful implications for policymakers. Therefore, the present study, with the application of the threshold vector autoregressive and spectral Analysis approaches during the period 1353-1395 reveals new evidence of the relationship between these two variables. The results show that government debt to the banking system has a dual and nonlinear effect on the economic growth. On the other words, if the ratio of debt to production is less than 18.2%, it has a positive effect on economic growth. Through crossing the estimated threshold, its destructive effect appears on economic growth. The impact of bank debt on economic growth is also non-linear and inverse. In addition, in the short and medium run, there is a causal relationship between these two variables. But, in the long run, the causality relationship from economic growth to government debt.
International Commerce
Hanane Aghasafari; Milad Aminizadeh; Alireza Karbasi
Abstract
Institutions and infrastructure as a set of social factors, rules, beliefs and infrastructure services are the key factors influencing bilateral trade between countries. So, this study investigates the effects of institutions and infrastructure on Iran’s bilateral trade with the main trading partners. ...
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Institutions and infrastructure as a set of social factors, rules, beliefs and infrastructure services are the key factors influencing bilateral trade between countries. So, this study investigates the effects of institutions and infrastructure on Iran’s bilateral trade with the main trading partners. For this purpose, gravity model, poisson pseudo maximum likelihood was developed and the analysis was based on panel data of trade volume between Iran and the trading partners over the period 2003-2016. The results implies that the interaction effect of different institutional indicators on Iran's bilateral trade with developing country partners and developed country partners are negative and significant. So that, Iran tends to trade more with less corrupt countries, higher political stability, implementing trade facilitation laws and more democracy. The positive and significant impact of the different institutional distance indicators on Iran's bilateral trade with developing country partners and developed country partners confirm that Iran tends to trade more with the partners that have stronger institutions. Moreover, the positive and significant effect associated with transport and communications infrastructure on Iran's bilateral trade with developing country partners and developed country partners indicates that the infrastructure facilitates trade between Iran and the main trading partners.
Monetary policy
Reza Shakeri Bostanabad; Zahra Jalili; Mohsen Salehi Komrudi
Abstract
The importance of monetary policy as one of the most important demand-side policies has led to a discussion of the growth of the volume of money and its impact on various economic sectors, which has always been one of the most challenging topics in macroeconomic literature. While Monetary Policy is usually ...
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The importance of monetary policy as one of the most important demand-side policies has led to a discussion of the growth of the volume of money and its impact on various economic sectors, which has always been one of the most challenging topics in macroeconomic literature. While Monetary Policy is usually performed at a national level, its impact may depend on the properties of regions. Therefore, this research tries to answer the question: Is the Impact of Monetary Policy on the Employment of the Provinces (Iran's Industrial Provinces) is homogenous? For this purpose, using the SFAVAR method the relation between money supply and the Employment of ten Iranian Industrial Provinces in the period 2005:1-2016:4 is studied. The provinces studied were selected based on the share of value added of the industry sector of each province to the total value added of the country's industry. The results reveal the impact of monetary policy on regional employment is small and is limited to short-run. Furthermore, the response of employment to liquidity shock in various provinces is different. Overall, the results show monetary policy cannot be an effective policy to create regional employment; because its effect is slight and short-lived. Therefore, to maintain the stability of the regional economy and to prevent inflation in the provinces of the country, liquidity must be controlled.
s
Azad Khanzadi; maryam heidarian
Abstract
In macroeconomics, the Okun's Law and Verdoorn's Law are used as methods for studying the relationship between economic growth and unemployment and employment. The necessity of studying these two laws together, in a threshold econometric model and considering to regional and spatial conditions of variables, ...
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In macroeconomics, the Okun's Law and Verdoorn's Law are used as methods for studying the relationship between economic growth and unemployment and employment. The necessity of studying these two laws together, in a threshold econometric model and considering to regional and spatial conditions of variables, can have more effective results in labor market policies. Therefore, in this study, due to the importance of employment and unemployment issue in Iran, have been investigated economic growth thresholds in the Okun's and Verdoorn's Law, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression and considering to spatial and non-spatial dimensions of variables. The results of model estimation for 30 Iranian provinces of during the period of 2005-2017 show that unemployment response to changes in production growth was higher than employment, this is true not only in non-spatial state, but also in spatial state and calculation of proximity matrix in economic growth. In addition, the results in spatial state than non-spatial state with stronger and faster changes, which is evidence of regional labor markets impact and macroeconomic situation and unbalanced development in each region, which has led to overflow in other areas. Of course, these effects, with crossed of threshold and entering second regime, have led to improvement in the labor market to increase employment and reduce unemployment, but effects of economic growth more have been on reducing unemployment than employment growth.
Economic Growth
Mahboobeh Farahati
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of revenue-neutral change in the tax structure on economic growth in Iran using data for the period of 1361-1395. To this end, an empirical model has been proposed to analyze the effect of substituting different tax items for each other on economic ...
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The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of revenue-neutral change in the tax structure on economic growth in Iran using data for the period of 1361-1395. To this end, an empirical model has been proposed to analyze the effect of substituting different tax items for each other on economic growth in such a way that the total tax revenue remains constant. The results of cointegration analysis based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach show that a revenue-neutral transfer of indirect taxes to income tax or wealth tax increases economic growth in the long run. However, a revenue-neutral transfer of indirect taxes to corporate taxes reduces economic growth in the long run. Also, among direct taxes, a revenue-neutral transfer of corporate taxes to income tax or wealth tax as well as a revenue-neutral transfer of income tax to wealth tax promote economic growth in the long run. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the highest and lowest increase in economic growth correspond to the substitution of wealth tax for corporate taxes and of income tax for indirect taxes, respectively. The results of this study have important policy implications for tax structure reform in Iran's economy.
Energy
ebrahim ghaed; Ali Dehghani; Mohammad Fattahy
Abstract
Abstract: The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of Types the renewable energy production on Iran’s economic growth during the period of 2008-2017. For this analysis, Vector Autoregressive Model, Johansson-Juselius method and Vector Error Correction Model are used. In accordance ...
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Abstract: The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of Types the renewable energy production on Iran’s economic growth during the period of 2008-2017. For this analysis, Vector Autoregressive Model, Johansson-Juselius method and Vector Error Correction Model are used. In accordance with the obtained results, the effect of the variables’ coefficients is coincident based on the theoretical foundations and statistically significant. The results indicate that in the long run, the variables of renewable energy investment by the private sector, the power generation from the renewable energy, and the consumption of renewable energies, which are considered as indicators for renewable energies, have a positive and significant effect on the economic growth. The coefficient of the error correction method indicates that about 0.62 of the short-term imbalance is adjusted in each period to achieve the long-term equilibrium. Further, in the long run, a one percentage increase in the labor force variables, renewable energy investment by the private sector, electricity generation from renewable energy, and the Production of Types renewable energies) Wind, Solar, Hydro and geothermal) leads to 0.87, 1.17, 6.44, 4.29, 2.09, 1.78 and 1.56 percentage increase in the economic growth, respectivel and it became clear that It was found that among renewable energy sources, the effect of wind energy on growth is higher than other energies and we have to prioritize investment in wind energy. Therefore, according to the results of the research, the political recommendation is that, considering the process of the types of renewable energy sources in Iran, since wind energy has the greatest effect on economic growth compared to other energy sources. By investing in this unit, the share of renewable energy use in Iran could be increased Key words: Renewable energy, Economic Growth, Vector Error Correction Model and Johansson-Juselius method JEL: O13, C13, G21, C22
