Document Type : ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Author
Assistant Professor, Department of Economic, Semnan University
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of revenue-neutral change in the tax structure on economic growth in Iran using data for the period of 1361-1395. To this end, an empirical model has been proposed to analyze the effect of substituting different tax items for each other on economic growth in such a way that the total tax revenue remains constant. The results of cointegration analysis based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach show that a revenue-neutral transfer of indirect taxes to income tax or wealth tax increases economic growth in the long run. However, a revenue-neutral transfer of indirect taxes to corporate taxes reduces economic growth in the long run. Also, among direct taxes, a revenue-neutral transfer of corporate taxes to income tax or wealth tax as well as a revenue-neutral transfer of income tax to wealth tax promote economic growth in the long run. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the highest and lowest increase in economic growth correspond to the substitution of wealth tax for corporate taxes and of income tax for indirect taxes, respectively. The results of this study have important policy implications for tax structure reform in Iran's economy.
Keywords
Main Subjects
ابونوری، عباسعلی و زیوری مسعود، سمیه (1393). "تأثیر درآمدهای مالیاتی بر رشد اقتصادی و توزیع درآمد". پژوهشنامه مالیات، دوره 22، شماره 24، 85-63.
اکبرپور روشن، نرگس و حاجی کرمی، مرضیه (1393). "ترکیب مالیاتی و رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای در حال توسعه". اقتصاد و الگوسازی، دوره 5، شماره 1 و 2، 192-162.
پورشهابی، فرشید و اسفندیاری، مرضیه (1396). "نقش توسعه مالی در ورود سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و ارتقاء رشد اقتصادی". فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، دوره 7، شماره 28، 126-113.
حیدری، حسن و حسن‌زاده، اکبر (1395). "رابطه نابرابری درآمدی و رشد اقتصادی در ایران". رفاه اجتماعی، دوره 16، شماره 63، 125-89.
خدایی، مهدی؛ جعفری، محمد و فتاحی، شهرام (1397). "بررسی اثرات سیاست‌های مالی بر رشد اقتصادی در اقتصاد ایران: مدل‌های حالت- فضا". فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، دوره 8، شماره 31، 92-79.
شفیعی، افسانه؛ تشکینی، احمد و برومند، زهرا (1385). "آزمون تأثیرگذاری سیاست مالی بر رشد اقتصادی". پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، دوره 6، شماره 23، 121-81.
صامتی، مرتضی؛ طیبی، سید کمیل و حیدری، سمیه (1387). "اثر رشد درآمدهای مالیاتی دولت بر تورم و رشد حقیقی اقتصاد ایران در دوره زمانی (۱۳۸۶-۱۳۳٨) ". پژوهشنامه مالیات، دوره 16، شماره 2، 193-175.
فرامرزی، ایوب؛ دشتبان فاروجی، ایوب؛ حکیمی‌پور، نادر؛ علیپور، صادق و جباری، امیر (1394). "بررسی رابطه مالیات و رشد اقتصادی، مطالعه موردی ایران و کشورهای عضو اوپک و سازمان همکاری‌های اقتصادی (OPEC) و (OECD) ". فصلنامه علوم اقتصادی، دوره 9، شماره 32، 122-103.
فولادی، معصومه و ستایش، هدیه (1393). "مطالعه آثار سیاست‌های مالی بر تولید، اشتغال و درآمد خانوارها در ایران: رهیافت مدل تعادل عمومی". برنامه‌ریزی و بودجه، دوره 19، شماره 1، 109-85.
منظور، منصور (1379). "تأثیر سیاست‌های مالیه دولت بر رشد اقتصادی بلندمدت". پایان‌نامه دکترا، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران
موسوی جهرمی، یگانه، رضوی، محمدرضا؛ خدادادکاشی، فرهاد و ایزدی، سید حسین (1396). "بررسی مشوق‌های هدفمند توسعه منطقه‌ای با رویکرد DID، مطالعه موردی: معافیت‌های مالیاتی موضوع ماده 132 قانون مالیات‌های مستقیم". فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، دوره 7، شماره 28، 50-33.
Acosta‐Ormaechea, S., Sola, S. & Yoo, J. (2012). “Tax Composition and Growth: A Broad Cross‐Country Perspective”. IMF Working Paper WP/12/257, International Monetary Fund.
Akgun, O., Cournède, B. & Fournier, J. M. (2017). “The Effects of the Tax Mix on Inequality and Growth”. OECD Economics Department Working Paper, Forthcoming.
Arnold, J., Brys, B., Heady, C., Johansson, A., Schwellnus, C. & Vartia, L. (2011). “Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Growth”. The Economic Journal, 121(550), F59-F80.
Barro, R. (1990). “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth”. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), S103–S125.
Bleaney, M. F., Gemmell, N. & Kneller, R. (2001). “Testing the Endogenous Growth Model: Public Expenditure, Taxation and Growth Over the Long-Run”. Canadian Journal of Economics, 34(1), 36–57.
Blöchliger, H. (2015). “Reforming the tax on Immovable Property: Taking Care of the Unloved”. OECDEconomics Department Working Papers, No. 1205, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Engen, E. M. & Skinner, J. (1996). “Taxation and Economic Growth”. National Tax Journal, 49(4), 617-642.
European Commission (2006). “Macroeconomic Effects of a Shift from Direct to Indirect Taxation: A Simulation for 15 EU Member States”. Note Presented by the European Commission Services at the 72nd meeting of the OECD Working Party No. 2 on Tax Policy Analysis and Tax Statistics.
Gemmell, N., Kneller, R. & Instant, I. (2007). “Tax Composition and Economic Growth in OECD Countries”, Mimeo.
Gemmell, N., Kneller, R. & Sant, I. (2011). “The Timing and Persistence of Fiscal Policy Impacts on Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries”. The Economic Journal, 121(550), 33-58.
Hall. R. E. (1968). “Consumption Taxes Versus Income Taxes: Implications for Economic Growth”. Proceedings of the 61st Tax Conference, San Fransisco, CA.
Harberger, A. (1964). “Taxation, Resource Allocation, and Welfare”. In The Role of Direct and Indirect Taxes in the Federal Reserve System (pp. 25-80), Princeton University Press.
Johansson, A. (2016). “Public Finance, Economic Growth and Inequality: A Survey of the Evidence”. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1346, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Jones, L., Manuelli, R. & Rossi, P. (1993). “Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth”. Journal of Political Economy, 101(3), 485–517.
Jorge, M.V., Violeta, V. & Yongzheng, L. (2009). “Direct Versus Indirect Taxation: Trends, Theory and Economic Significance”. Working Paper, 09-11, Andrew Young School.
Katz, C. J., Mahler, V. A. & Franz, M. G. (1983). “The Impact of Taxes on Growth and Distribution in Developed Capitalist Countries: A Cross-National Study”. The American Political Science Review, 77(4), 871–886.
Kerr, I. A. & MacDonald, G. A. (1999). “Economic Growth and Taxation Mix in Selected Asian Economies”. Paper Presented to the 12th World Congress of the International Economic Association, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Kim, S. J. (1998). “Growth Effects of Taxes in an Endogenous Growth Model: To What Extent Do Taxes Affect Economic Growth?”. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 23(1), 125-158.
King, R. & Rebelo, S. (1990). “Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications”. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S126–S150.
Kneller, R., Bleaney, M. F. & Gemmell, N. (1999). “Fiscal Policy and Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries”. Journal of Public Economics, 74(2), 171-190.
Koester, R. B. & Kormendi, R. C. (1989). “Taxation, Aggregate Activity and Economic Growth: Cross-Country Evidence on Some Supply-Side Hypotheses”. Economic Inquiry, 27(3), 367–386.
Lee, Y. & Gordon, R. H. (2005). “Tax Structure and Economic Growth”. Journal of Public Economics, 89(5-6), 1027-1043.
Marire, J. & Sunde, T. (2012). “Economic Growth and Tax Structure in Zimbabwe: 1984– 2009”. International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 5(2), 105-121.
Marsden, K. (1983). “Links Between Taxes and Economic Growth”. World Bank Staff Working Paper No 605, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Martínez-Vázquez, J. & Vulovic, V. (2011). “Tax Structure in Latin America: its Impact on the Real Economy and Compliance”. International Studies Program, WorkingPaper Series #1122.
McNabb, K. (2018). “Tax Structures and Economic Growth: New Evidence from the Government Revenue Dataset”. Journal of International Development, 30(2), 173-205.
Mendoza, E. G., Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. & Asea, P. (1997). “On the Effectiveness of Tax Policy in Altering Long-run Growth: Harberger’s Superneutrality Conjecture”. Journal of Public Economics, 66(1), 99-126.
Mercedes, G. E. & Mehrez, G. (2004). “The Impact of Government Size and the Composition of Revenue and Expenditure on Growth”. IMF.
Miller, S. M. & Russek, F. S. (1993). “Fiscal Structures and Economic Growth: International Evidence”. Econ Papers. http:/econpapers.repec.org/paper/wpawuwpma/9309001.htm.
Pecorino, P. (1993). “Tax Structure and Growth in a Model with Human Capital”. Journal of Public Economics, 52(2), 251-271.
Rebelo, S. (1991). “Long-run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth”. Journal of Political Economy, 99, 500–521.
Skinner, J. (1987). “Taxation and Output Growth: Evidence from African Countries”. NBER Working Paper No.2335, 42.
Solow, R. (1956). “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”. Quarterly Journal of Economics,70(1), 65–94.
Wang, P. & Yip, CK. (1992). “Taxation and Economic Growth: The Case of Taiwan”. American Journal of Economicsand Sociology, 51(3), 317-331.
Widmalm, F. (2001). “Tax Structure and Growth: Are Some Taxes Better than Others?”. Public Choice, 107(3-4), 199-219.
)