Dynamic Panel Data
Abdolali Monsef; Mozhgan Moalemi; Jahangir Biyabani; Mehdi Nejati; javad Taherizadeh
Abstract
If happiness is a good feature of society and development is considered as a gradual movement towards good society, happiness can be one of the goals of developmental policies. In the field of happiness economics, the focus of studies is on analyzing the impact of various economic factors on happiness. ...
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If happiness is a good feature of society and development is considered as a gradual movement towards good society, happiness can be one of the goals of developmental policies. In the field of happiness economics, the focus of studies is on analyzing the impact of various economic factors on happiness. But so far, no study has investigated the effect of economic variables on happiness with the panel threshold regression models. In the present study, the effect of eight variables on happiness using panel data for 100 countries in the period 2005 to 2016 in three scenarios was investigated using panel threshold regression method. The results of the research show that the happiness relationship with per capita income, health, consumption, government expenditures and economic freedom is positive and there is a negative relationship between happiness and income inequality, inflation and unemployment. In each scenario, only a threshold value was detected. Consumption expenditures and economic freedom have a positive effect on happiness, and the size of this effect increases with increasing per capita income (threshold variable). Per capita income has a positive effect on happiness, but with increasing income inequality (threshold variable), the effect of per capita income will decrease. It seems, therefore, that the formulation of appropriate policies to reduce income inequality can lead to more social happiness for the society, which will result in increased productivity and economic growth.
International Commerce
somaye alikarami; Ebrahim Hadian; parviz rostamzadeh; Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri
Abstract
The purpose of this study has been to consider the effects of non-price factors along with price factors on the demand of Iranian export from 1988 to 2017.In this research, a single error correction model is used to evaluate the short-term dynamics and long-term effects simultaneously. Moreover, in this ...
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The purpose of this study has been to consider the effects of non-price factors along with price factors on the demand of Iranian export from 1988 to 2017.In this research, a single error correction model is used to evaluate the short-term dynamics and long-term effects simultaneously. Moreover, in this study compare to previous researches, a more flexible approach has been included in the export function which is based on the structural time series' patterns which are the trends that express the effects of non-pricing factors. Then, the OXmetric software and the Kalman filter is utilized to estimate the amount of trend in each year, and the effect of each factor on the trend component is evaluated by the Ordinary Least Square Method. The results indicate that the price elasticity of the export is low. Also, the impact of non-pricing factors such as globalization, total productivity of production factors, innovation, electronic commerce and foreign direct investment on non-oil exports were assessed. The results have shown the significant effect of all factors and the negative impact of economic freedom, openness and foreign direct investment on the implicit process export.
GDP
Esmaeil Torkamani; Mohammad Hassan Fotros
Abstract
The use of natural resource revenues for achievement of development has been a challenging issue for resource abound countries. These a challenging stem from the fact that incomes from natural resources are non-durable, unpredictable and uncertain. Many countries have pursued approaches and tools for ...
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The use of natural resource revenues for achievement of development has been a challenging issue for resource abound countries. These a challenging stem from the fact that incomes from natural resources are non-durable, unpredictable and uncertain. Many countries have pursued approaches and tools for managing these revenues to prevent economic fluctuations. The international organizations and economic experts propose a diversification into resource revenues in the form of different approaches for public investment. The present study evaluates the policy of increasing public investment in Iran in the form of three gradual, aggressive and conservative approaches for the period of 1978-2015 using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method. The results showed that after an oil revenue shock, the status of economic variables in the gradual increase approach is better than the other two approaches. In a gradual approach, in addition to increasing GDP and private and public consumption, public debt is also declining
s
davood farhadi; hossein ali danesh; Habib Ansari Samani; Hadi keshavarz
Abstract
Over the past decades, the economies of the world have continually experienced economic fluctuations, business cycles, and cycles of boom and recession. Fiscal rules are one of the most important tools of the government with the goal of stabilizing and reducing fluctuations during the business cycle. ...
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Over the past decades, the economies of the world have continually experienced economic fluctuations, business cycles, and cycles of boom and recession. Fiscal rules are one of the most important tools of the government with the goal of stabilizing and reducing fluctuations during the business cycle. It is always the minds of many policymakers who are involved in the question of how a policy should be considered during a period of boom or recession. In fact, policy makers are confronted with the question of whether fiscal rules should be used during business cycles. In response to this question, the present study uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and modeling the National Development Fund to scenario in two modes of applying counterycyclical fiscal rule and its non-implementation. The findings of the study showed that, in the case of petty impacts, a counterycyclical fiscal rule based on oil revenues has reduced the intensity of fluctuations of macroeconomic variables compared to the absence of a fiscal rule. Also, in the case of monetary impulse, there is not a significant difference in the effectiveness of the implementation of the fiscal rules or its non-implementation.
Economic Growth
ramiar refaei; morteza sameti; sara ghobadi
Abstract
The history of Iran's economy after the revolution has been in recession for some years and, with the 70s, this trend has deepened, and with the 1990s it seems that the real GDP trend is making serious changes. In this paper, the Markov chain Monte Carlo and Byesian approach are used to simulate the ...
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The history of Iran's economy after the revolution has been in recession for some years and, with the 70s, this trend has deepened, and with the 1990s it seems that the real GDP trend is making serious changes. In this paper, the Markov chain Monte Carlo and Byesian approach are used to simulate the effects of factors affecting the economic recession in Iran during the years 1979- 2016. The results show that the Bayesian approach confirm the results of the model estimation using the Monte Carlo Markov chain approach, and at a reliable level, 97.5% of the coefficients of the variables are statistically significant and reliable. so, the most influential variables were estimated on the economic recession in Iran, are exchange rate changes, crude oil prices, and real GDP. The results also show that the matrix of Bayes factors for all pairings of models is reliable. The later probabilities of regimes and the likelihood ratio indicate that the change points in the sixth model are different with the rest of the models, so the regime change is happening in the sixth model.
Economic Growth
Ahmad Chehreghani; Mansour ZaraNejhad
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of Value Added Tax (VAT) on Iran's economic growth. For this purpose, Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) has been used. Data are derived from the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran in 2011, prepared by the Parliament Research Center in ...
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of Value Added Tax (VAT) on Iran's economic growth. For this purpose, Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) has been used. Data are derived from the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran in 2011, prepared by the Parliament Research Center in 2015, which is the latest SAM of Iran. Policy analysis has been carried out in the form of nine scenarios: the VAT with the rates applied in Iran (3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 9%), and the applicable rates (10%, 15% and 20%). In all scenarios, the VAT rate in agriculture sectore is considered zero. The results indicate that VAT has positive impact on Iran's economic growth.
Economic Growth
jalal montazeri shoorekchali
Abstract
Considering the importance of discussing the effect of government debt size on economic growth, this study examines the validity of the debt laffer curve using a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model in Iran during 1973-2016. The findings support a threshold behavior of two regimes between the government ...
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Considering the importance of discussing the effect of government debt size on economic growth, this study examines the validity of the debt laffer curve using a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model in Iran during 1973-2016. The findings support a threshold behavior of two regimes between the government debt size and economic growth in the Iran's economy. The threshold level of government debt size is 41.70% of the GDP. In periods that the government debt size is less than 41.70 % or the first regime, government debt size has a negative effect on economic growth. Therefore, the evidence does not corroborate the existence of the Debt Laffer Curve in Iran's economy. The disapproval of this hypothesis and the negative impact of government debt on economic growth - at low levels of debt size - can be rooted in the fact that government spends the borrowed funds on the deficits that emerged from structural imperfection and institutional rigidity, while it should be used to develop infrastructures or foster productive investments.
