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hamzeh Karimi Firouzjaei; Saeed Karimi Potanlar; Ahmad Jafari Samimi
Abstract
considering the importance of oil shocks in Iran's economy, in this research, an attempt has been made to examine the effects of oil income shocks on the expenditure and income components of the government's general budget. in this regard, in order to consider structural instability in parameters, time-varying ...
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considering the importance of oil shocks in Iran's economy, in this research, an attempt has been made to examine the effects of oil income shocks on the expenditure and income components of the government's general budget. in this regard, in order to consider structural instability in parameters, time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) models are used. this model allows the estimated coefficients vary over time. In this research, the seasonal data in period of 1990/02-2019/01 be used. The estimation results of the models indicate the positive and short-term effects of oil income shocks on current expenditures and construction expenditures. the estimation of the second model shows the negative impact of oil shocks on tax revenues and the positive impact on other government revenues. The results of reaction functions (IRF) also show that the mentioned effects have a short durati on and are reversed in the next periods and disappear quickly. Also, the estimation results of the models show that the impact of oil shocks on inflation has varied over time and changed from negative to positive after the income shock of 2005.
Emambakhsh Eidouzahi; Mohammad Mohebbi; Seyed Yaghoob Zeraatkish
Abstract
Today, one of the most important economic goals of the countries of the world is to create the necessary grounds for economic growth and development, and the business environment is one of the main strategies to achieve this. The business environment is a political, institutional and behavioral environment ...
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Today, one of the most important economic goals of the countries of the world is to create the necessary grounds for economic growth and development, and the business environment is one of the main strategies to achieve this. The business environment is a political, institutional and behavioral environment that affects the efficiency and risks associated with economic activities and investments. Therefore, the aim of this research is to study of factors affecting the economic growth of Group D8.In the current study, the causative link among gross domestic product (GDP) annual growth rate (GDPr), corruption perceptions index (CPI), foreign direct investments (FDI) and ease of doing business index (DB) was empirically tested from 2005 to 2020 by using a panel data of D-8 Group comprise of 8 country include Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey. The PMG panel ARDL, heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence, used to investigate the long and short-term dynamic relationships. Findings from the Pesaran-Yamagata homogeneity test, Pesaran CD test, CIPS and ADF Fisher Chi-square (ADF Fisher) panel unit root tests and Kao panel cointegration test, indicated the panel time series data has heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, analyzed variables are stationary and cointegrated respectively. According to the panel ARDL estimation, the error-correction model coefficient (ECM) is negative and statistically significant for all examined countries. The value coefficient of error term, indicate that the most of deviation of long-term equilibrium, corrected in the first year. The panel causality analysis results confirm, the bidirectional causality between GDPr and FDI; GDPr and DB; CPI and DB. In addition, the unilateral causality relationship found between CPI and GDPr, DB and FDI.
Rima Mohammad Moradi; Seyed Kamal Sadeghi; Mehrdad Khan Maku
Abstract
The interaction effect between financial development, air pollution and economic growth is on of the main issues in the macroeconomics literature and has been considered empirically from the view of economics researcher. Moreover, importance of renewable energy in economic growth, reducing environmental ...
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The interaction effect between financial development, air pollution and economic growth is on of the main issues in the macroeconomics literature and has been considered empirically from the view of economics researcher. Moreover, importance of renewable energy in economic growth, reducing environmental pollution and the role of financial resources on renewable energy projects express the importance of financial development in the development of renewable energy. This paper examines the nexus between clean energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in a group of MENA countries during 1995-2018. For this purpose, the (GMM) method has been utilized for model estimation. The results show that increasing clean energy, carbon dioxide emissions and increasing foreign direct investment have boosted economic growth in the countries studied. Also, despite the positive impact of financial development on clean energy consumption, it has not been able to reduce pollution. In order to expand investment in renewable energy, projects related to this sector should have been easier and more accessible to large and basic investors. Proper financial structure can lead to an increase in the volume of investment and at the same time reduce costs. On the other hand, it should be noted that targeting for projects can play a facilitating role and lead to investment maturity. Access to effective and appropriate tools to reduce risk for private sector investment and the use of tools such as guaranteed purchase, standardized portfolio of renewable energy, quota policies and low-cost lending for renewable energy projects will be able to meet the challenges overcome existing problems and reduce project risks to a great extent.
Salman Sotoudehnia Karanii
Abstract
In general, one of the channels that help accelerate the economic growth of countries is the growth of their industry sector. The importance and basic role of the industry sector and its contribution as the most important factor in stimulating economic growth in developed and developing countries is ...
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In general, one of the channels that help accelerate the economic growth of countries is the growth of their industry sector. The importance and basic role of the industry sector and its contribution as the most important factor in stimulating economic growth in developed and developing countries is to such an extent that many experts believe that industrial development leads to the growth and development of other sectors.. The present research has been conducted on the asymmetric analysis of monetary shocks on the economic growth rate of the industrial sector in Iran with the SUR model. In this research, using seasonal time series data during the period 1986 to 2019 and using the nonlinear approach of Markov regime change, apparently unrelated regressions (SUR) and linear regression method, the effect of the mentioned shocks on growth industrial production is reviewed. The results of the SUR technique showed that the reaction of the industries and mines sector and its sub-sectors to predicted and unanticipated monetary shocks is meaningless in normal economic conditions. Therefore, regardless of the fluctuations governing the economy, the transmission channels of monetary policy are weak in the entire sector of industries and mines and its sub-sectors.
Masoud Saadatmehr; Nasrin Mansori
Abstract
Iran's economy has been facing the phenomenon of inflation for many decades, which has been unbridled inflation in many periods. Therefore, in order to control the inflation rate, some policy makers are looking towards applying a contractionary monetary policy by increasing the required reserve rate. ...
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Iran's economy has been facing the phenomenon of inflation for many decades, which has been unbridled inflation in many periods. Therefore, in order to control the inflation rate, some policy makers are looking towards applying a contractionary monetary policy by increasing the required reserve rate. But this policy has been criticized due to the fact that it reduces production and economic growth and as a result creates recession in the economy. To what extent the increase in the required reserve rate with the aim of controlling inflation will reduce production and economic growth is a central question that the present research was made to answer. For this purpose, the system of simultaneous equations using the 3SLS method has been used. The data used in the present research is a time series of 1979-2018, which was collected from the database of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The results showed that the variables of the required reserve rate and the excess reserve rate have a negative effect and the monetary base growth rate has a positive effect on the volume of money in Iran's economy. Also, the results showed that increasing the required reserve rate as a contractionary monetary policy can reduce the growth rate of the money volume and the inflation rate in the Iranian economy without changing the real production.
Seyed Jalal Alavi; Mohammad Mahdi lotfi heravi; Marzieh Asaadi
Abstract
One of the most important issues in macroeconomic management is the analysis of factors affecting economic growth. This research has measured the effect of financial development on Iran's economic growth and test Patrick's hypothesis in the period of 1978-2019. Main research questions include; 1) What ...
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One of the most important issues in macroeconomic management is the analysis of factors affecting economic growth. This research has measured the effect of financial development on Iran's economic growth and test Patrick's hypothesis in the period of 1978-2019. Main research questions include; 1) What variables are effective in Iran's financial development index, together with their weighting factor, and does financial development in Iran bank-oriented or stock market-oriented? 2) What is the short-term and long-term effect of the financial development index on Iran's economic growth and the speed of adjustment to the long-term relationship? 3) Is the causal relationship between Iran's financial development and economic growth demand-oriented or supply-oriented? Firstly, comprehensive financial development index was created by using four variables, including the volume of liquidity, bank credits allocated to the private sector, the value of capital market transactions, and the volume of bank deposits using the Factor Analysis Method. Then the short-term and long-term relationship was calculated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, followed by employing the Granger Causality Test to examine Patrick's hypothesis for the cause-and-effect relationship between financial development and economic growth in Iran. Finally, using the Error Correction Model, the speed of adjustment from the short-run equilibrium to the long-run equilibrium state was evaluated. The results show that the financial development index has a positive relationship with economic growth in the short and long term. Patrick's hypothesis test also confirms only the demand-driven management view which confirms causality from economic growth to financial development.
Safyeh Mozafari; Azam Rezaee; Farhad Shirani Bidabadi; Farshid Eshraghi
Abstract
The importance of productivity growth (PG) in the agricultural sector in the long-term economic growth of countries on the one hand and the high share of the agricultural sector in the economy of Islamic countries, on the other hand, shows the importance of analyzing the PG in Islamic countries. This ...
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The importance of productivity growth (PG) in the agricultural sector in the long-term economic growth of countries on the one hand and the high share of the agricultural sector in the economy of Islamic countries, on the other hand, shows the importance of analyzing the PG in Islamic countries. This article aims to analyze the agricultural total factors productivity (ATFP) of Islamic countries from 1995 to 2019. Solow's growth model and panel data technique were used to calculate the ATFP growth. Based on the results, the Cobb-Douglas production function was chosen as the best functional form. Also, the variables of fertilizer, cultivated area, capital, and employment have a positive and significant effect on the value added. In addition, TFP will be examined in 3 sub-groups to illustrate the developments within the OIC better. The first, second and third groups are classified as the least developed, the middle-income and oil-exporting countries, respectively. ATFP of the first, second, and third groups are -4%, 0.8%, and 0.6%, respectively. The negative PG of the LDCS indicates that this group isn’t in a sustainable development pathway. Also, the OE has lower productivity rather than MI because of the focus on oil export. Besides, ATFP of Togo, Niger, Cameron, Egypt, Jordan, Iran, and the U.A.E. is negative which illustrates the unsustainable development of these countries. All in all, technological innovation is should be considered to promote sustainable development of OIC countries. In addition, to improve agricultural productivity, the government should be enhanced investment in human capital.
Hasti Bagheri; Asghar Abolhassani Hastiani; Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi; Kamran Mani
Abstract
Today, taxes play an important role in the economic growth and development of countries by maintaining the existence of the government and financing social programs and infrastructure investment. Also, taxation helps to allocate resources, redistribute income and correct negative externalities as well ...
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Today, taxes play an important role in the economic growth and development of countries by maintaining the existence of the government and financing social programs and infrastructure investment. Also, taxation helps to allocate resources, redistribute income and correct negative externalities as well as support domestic industries. Therefore, tax evasion reduces the role of tax effectiveness in the mentioned cases. The relevance of the subject of the study is evident from the fact that every year an important part of financial income is lost through the activities of financial planning, financial evasion and tax evasion carried out by the private sector. The purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship between tax evasion and economic growth during the period of 2011-2020 Iran. For this purpose, seasonal data from Denton's method and estimated tax evasion data have been used. In this study, in the form of a three-part model, the effect of extra-fiscal on economic growth has been investigated using vector autoregression model with distributional lag (ARDL). The results show that in the short term, in the economic growth model, the coefficient of tax evasion, employment rate, foreign investment and oil income variables are negative. However, in the long run, the impact of tax evasion, employment rate, oil revenue and average tax burden on economic growth are positive. Despite the fact that the coefficient of foreign investment in the long run is not significant.
