Economic Growth
farhad ghalambaz; Ali Souri; Ghahraman Abdoli; Mohsen Ebrahimi
Abstract
Investigation of factors that affect economic growth has been always attractive. Foreign direct investment is one of the variables that have potential effects on growth. This study carried out to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. We consider the role of natural resources ...
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Investigation of factors that affect economic growth has been always attractive. Foreign direct investment is one of the variables that have potential effects on growth. This study carried out to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. We consider the role of natural resources using panel threshold regression model for 1996 to 2015 period and also emphasis on relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Iran by Markov Switching Approach for 1976-2015. Panel threshold regression model formed based on Hansen’s (1999) suggested model then that estimated by Wang’s (2015) proposed method for fixed effect models. Results of threshold regression model showed that natural resources, domestic capital formation, population growth rate and governance indicator has statistically significant effect on economic growth. Threshold level for natural resources is 28.58 percentages. Foreign direct investment variable has different effect on economic growth in regimes. In first regime foreign direct investment increase economic growth but in second regime, that natural resources is more than threshold level, it decrease growth rate. Results of tow regimes Auto-Regressive Markov Switching model for Iran showed that foreign direct investment in recession regime is insignificant but this variable in boom regime has statistically significant effect and this relationship is negative.
OPEC
Mohammad Sokhanvar
Abstract
In this paper, government expenditure productivity has been studied in selected countries that are member in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and optimum threshold government size of these countries is determined. For this reason, endogenous Barrow growth model is used that practically ...
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In this paper, government expenditure productivity has been studied in selected countries that are member in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and optimum threshold government size of these countries is determined. For this reason, endogenous Barrow growth model is used that practically applied by Karras. Panel data threshold approach is applied. The reason for selecting these countries for study is that these countries have the same government financial structure such that a high share of budget of these countries depend on the oil revenue. According to available data, eight countries are selected and the period under study is from 2000 to 2014. Estimation findings show that optimum threshold government size of these countries have been estimated 13/58. In addition, findings indicate that before the threshold government size, the productivity of government size has been positive and approximately 0/72 and after the threshold government size, the productivity of government size has been negative and approximately -0/23.
Economic Growth
Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi; Hadi Ghaffari; Mehdi Jaloli
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 13-28
Abstract
The current study, using the VAR model, tries to explore the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth in Iran during the 1981-2011 periods using the principle components analysis. In this study, using the principle components analysis (PCA), an indicator of economic instability ...
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The current study, using the VAR model, tries to explore the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth in Iran during the 1981-2011 periods using the principle components analysis. In this study, using the principle components analysis (PCA), an indicator of economic instability was built and then the impact of this indicator on economic growth of Iran was examined. The findings show that Only the importance of labor in the Agricultural sector but in other sectors more than other variables, physical capital is the more important in explaining economic growth. In all areas of macroeconomics, variable economic instability negative impact on economic growth in the sector. Four parts macroeconomic indicator of economic instability in the analysis of variance, respectively, in the fields of Industry and Minerals, Services, Agriculture and Oil and Gas exploration is more important.
Economic Growth
Mehdi Khodaei; Mohammad Jafari; Shahram Fattahi
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 79-92
Abstract
Macro-economic relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth has long been considered by economists. In this study to evaluate the more accurate effect of the government's fiscal policy in the economy, using quarterly data for the years 1988 to 2016, a factor-augmented vector autoregressive ...
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Macro-economic relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth has long been considered by economists. In this study to evaluate the more accurate effect of the government's fiscal policy in the economy, using quarterly data for the years 1988 to 2016, a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with time varying parameter model (TVP) in Iran's economy has been modeling. The variables of GDP growth, investment growth, inflation, exchange rates, the growth of private consumption expenditure and latent variable of government fiscal policies are used in model. Based on results the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in the whole period is positive and investment increased the rate of economic growth. Also the additive positive effects of fiscal policy on the unofficial exchange rate has increased over time. In addition, the effect of fiscal policy on inflation is positive, so that the additive effect in economic prosperity period is more. Finally, the effect of fiscal policy on private sector spending is negative. Results of this study show changes in relationships between variables over time and also indicate that economic conditions of the country affects the impacts of independent variables.
Economic Growth
Siab Mamipour; Atefeh Rezaei
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 107-122
Abstract
The inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate is known as Okun’s law in the economic literature. According to the importance of Okun's law on economic policy, investigating the relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth is very important at provincial level. ...
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The inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate is known as Okun’s law in the economic literature. According to the importance of Okun's law on economic policy, investigating the relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth is very important at provincial level. Also, with regard to labor mobility between provinces based on economic conditions, spatial and spillover effects are essential in regional studies; therefore, the main objectives of this paper are to investigate Okun's law in Iran's provinces with spatial econometric approach and whether Okun’s law can be used as a rule of thumb for surveying the labor market response to changes in regional economic growth, in Iran's provinces. A panel data set for 30 provinces during period of 2005 to 2013. The results show that unemployment rates and economic growth of provinces have spatial dependence and labor market performance is influenced by macroeconomic situation and its features the economic situation in neighboring provinces. Hence, in this study spatial panel is employed to investigate Okun’s law. The results of spatial panel (SAC) approve accuracy of Okun's law in Iran's provinces; and the development of regional labor market is not limited to the provincial borders and spillovers to other provinces.
توسعه مالی
Hamidreza Horri; seyed jalal; seyed jalla; Simin Sadat Mirhashemi
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 83-100
Abstract
The level of GDP and its growth rate are the most important performance indices in macroeconomics. Therefore, investigation of the effective factors on economic growth is especially significant and one of the most important issues in the field of macroeconomics. The review of literature related to economic ...
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The level of GDP and its growth rate are the most important performance indices in macroeconomics. Therefore, investigation of the effective factors on economic growth is especially significant and one of the most important issues in the field of macroeconomics. The review of literature related to economic growth, showed that granularity in banking is one of the effective factors on economic growth. This paper has studied the simultaneous effects of trade openness and granularity in banking on Iran’s economic growth. Generalized Method of Moments has been used to test the hypotheses. The data has been used in this research is Iran macroeconomics data and data related to Iran Banking network in the years 2001-2012. As expected, The results show that bank granular residual variable and simultaneous effect variable of trade openness and bank granular residual have a negative and significant effect on Iran’s economic growth.
Economic Growth
Teymour Rahmani; sima Motamedi
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 117-132
Abstract
The relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth is an issue that has always been of importance for economists. It is believed that foreign direct investment (FDI) is necessary to promote economic growth and capital formation in every country, particularly in the developing countries. ...
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The relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth is an issue that has always been of importance for economists. It is believed that foreign direct investment (FDI) is necessary to promote economic growth and capital formation in every country, particularly in the developing countries. Since it has been discussed that FDI promotes economic growth not only by increasing the volume of financial funds and relaxing the constraint on investment financed by domestic savings but also by technology and management skills transfer from advanced economies to developing economies in the context of endogenous growth models, it is necessary to examine the effect of FDI on economic growth via the above mentioned channels. In this study, we examine the effects of FDI on capital formation, labor productivity and economic growth. We try to test the hypothesis that FDI helps economic growth in developing countries not only via capital formation but also via the increase in productivity. To test this hypothesis, we use a panel data approach in a simultaneous equations system including three equations and three groups consisting of 111 developing countries over the time period 1995-2013. Our method of estimation is 2SLS. Our results show that in the sample we have examined, productivity has a higher effect on economic growth than capital formation. Therefore, the hypothesis that “FDI, by increasing productivity, has a positive effect on economic growth” is not rejected.
Economic Growth
Mohammad Ali Ehsani; Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 133-145
Abstract
Post Keynesian growth model considers the use of production factors as a function of production and introduces demand as the main determinant of economic growth. Accordingly, Thirlwall (1979) presented a model suggesting that demand is restrained by the balance of payments deficit and turns into substantial ...
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Post Keynesian growth model considers the use of production factors as a function of production and introduces demand as the main determinant of economic growth. Accordingly, Thirlwall (1979) presented a model suggesting that demand is restrained by the balance of payments deficit and turns into substantial limitations to achieve higher economic growth rate owing to balance of payments deficit. This model is known as Thirlwall law or “balance of payments constrained growth model”. In this model the maximum rate of economic growth consistent with the balance-of-payments equilibrium is figured out using income elasticity of import and export. Identifying the barriers to achieving the target growth rate has been turned into one of the most controversial economic issues because of the challenges of low economic growth in Iran. Thus this study is going to provide an answer to the question that, based on Thirlwall law, Whether the balance of payments deems obstacles to the target growth rates of development programs for the Iran’s economy or not? To accomplish this, first the long run cointegration relationship of import and export demand functions was approved by autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). Then, regarding the importance of the elasticities of above functions on the results of the study and removing the structural instability of the model coefficients, time–varying parameter (TVP) and Kalman – filter were used to estimate the elasticities. Finally the validity of Thirlwall law was not confirmed during 1984-2013 applying Wald Test. Therefore, it can be claimed that aggregate demand has not restricted the economic growth through the balance of payments. Low income elasticity of import, combination of imports, restrictions on imports and dependence of foreign trade on oil revenues are the most important reasons for the results.
total factor productivity of production؛
Mandana Ghafoori Sadatieh; Mahdi Khoda Parast Mashhadi; Mostafa Salimifar; Mostafa Kazemi
Volume 8, Issue 29 , December 2017, , Pages 31-44
Abstract
This study aims to measure the external efficiency of formal education and then evaluating the effects of economic growth in Iran during 1957 to 2013. External efficiency, is the responsibility of educational system to social system in term of individual, economic, political and cultural dimensions. ...
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This study aims to measure the external efficiency of formal education and then evaluating the effects of economic growth in Iran during 1957 to 2013. External efficiency, is the responsibility of educational system to social system in term of individual, economic, political and cultural dimensions. The research method to measure the relative efficiency is the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method with the input-oriented and constant returns to scale, and efficient units are ranked using Anderson-Peterson (AP). Using the econometric method of GMM to evaluate the effect of the external efficiency of education on the economic growth. Results showed that in 85 percentages of examined years, external efficiency of education is acheived. Inputs that affect respectively on the external efficiency are educational equity, technology infrastructure, education expenditures and quality. Outputs that affect respectively on the external efficiency are freedom, environment protection, family sustainability and establishment. For inefficient units, the most of output shortage related to security and maximum output surplus is for education expenditures. External efficiency of education, labor and capital have a positive effect on economic growth in Iran and external efficiency of education is the cause of economic growth.
Export Diversification
hossein amiri; marjaneh beshkhoor
Volume 8, Issue 29 , December 2017, , Pages 127-144
Abstract
In this study, the effect of horizontal and vertical diversification policies on economic growth in Iran is investigated. The approach applied is Markov Switching regimes, for annual data series 1979-2015. The growth rates of horizontal and vertical diversification, consume expenditure, and investment ...
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In this study, the effect of horizontal and vertical diversification policies on economic growth in Iran is investigated. The approach applied is Markov Switching regimes, for annual data series 1979-2015. The growth rates of horizontal and vertical diversification, consume expenditure, and investment as well as inflation rate are the variables which are used in this study. The results show that inflation rate, consume expenditure and vertical diversification growth have positive and significant effect, in both 0 and1 regimes, on economic growth. Furthermore, the horizontal diversification and investment growth also have positive effect on economic growth but only in 0 regime. Additionally, the predicted economic growth rate under three proposed scenarios, for 2016 and 2017 years, show that we can reach 8 percentage as medium growth rate in the sixth development program with emphasizing on vacant capacity, especially horizontal and vertical diversification policies.
Economic Growth
Ali Mahdiloo; Hosein Asgharpour; Mohammad Mehdi Barghi Oskooei
Volume 7, Issue 28 , September 2017, , Pages 17-32
Abstract
There are two major views on the subject of the relationship between the development of non-oil exports and economic growth. In first opinion, non-oil exports leads to economic growth through the increase in quality of inputs. In second opinion, economic growth will increase non-oil exports throughquantitative ...
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There are two major views on the subject of the relationship between the development of non-oil exports and economic growth. In first opinion, non-oil exports leads to economic growth through the increase in quality of inputs. In second opinion, economic growth will increase non-oil exports throughquantitative strengthening of inputs. In non-linear models there are the ability to calculate relationship between variables and causal variables in different regimes. For this reason non-linear causality models can have better results than linear causality models. For this purpose in this study a Markov Switching model is used to investigate non-linear causal relationship between economic growth and non-oil export in the years 1973-2013. The results indicate that in first regime (high growth) and second regime (low economic growth), there is no causality between exports and economic growth. The reason is lack of sufficient attention to production of other economic sectors during the oil boom. As a result, it causes the weakening of production, reduction of domestic production and international competitive power and finally reduction of the share of exports of goods and services in economic growth.
Co2 Emissions
Rouhollah Shahnazi; Ebrahim Hadian; Lotfollah Jargani
Volume 7, Issue 28 , September 2017, , Pages 51-70
Abstract
Although the trend of increase in energy consumption has made possible fast economic growth of industrial modern society, but because of combustion pollutants emission and increase in density of carbon dioxide in atmosphere has made irreversible changes in the world. Not only this trend is destroying ...
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Although the trend of increase in energy consumption has made possible fast economic growth of industrial modern society, but because of combustion pollutants emission and increase in density of carbon dioxide in atmosphere has made irreversible changes in the world. Not only this trend is destroying finite and nonrenewable energies, but also it is releasing numerous of pollutants into the receptive environment (air, water, and soil). In this article, existence of causality relation between energy carriers' consumption with economic growth and carbon dioxide gas emission in sectors of Iran's economy (residential, general and commercial, industry, agriculture, and transportation) in period of 1997 to 2012 using causality Toda and Yamamoto method has been studied. In the agriculture sector, results show a unidirectional causality relation of energy carrier consumption to economic growth. In transportation, residential, general and economic sectors existence of bidirectional causality relation of economic growth variable and carbon dioxide gas emission with energy carriers has been verified. In industry sector, a unidirectional causality relation of economic growth to gas, electricity to economic growth and bidirectional causality relation of coal exist. Also, there is a unidirectional causality relation of carbon dioxide emission to oil and bidirectional causality relation carbon dioxide gas emission to other variables except oil exist.
s
Teymor Rahmani; Elnaz Bagherpur Oskoei
Volume 7, Issue 28 , September 2017, , Pages 71-82
Abstract
The effect of saving on investment and economic growth is an important issue in both economic theory and policy. Also, having high and stable economic growth is of importance for all economies. On the other hand, inflation and its adverse effects (especially on economic growth) is one of the main economic ...
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The effect of saving on investment and economic growth is an important issue in both economic theory and policy. Also, having high and stable economic growth is of importance for all economies. On the other hand, inflation and its adverse effects (especially on economic growth) is one of the main economic problems in many developing countries. This study examines the relationship between the rate of saving and economic growth in developing countries with low and high inflation rates. In other words, since there have been high inflation rates in some developing countries including Iran, we examine the developments in the saving rates and economic growth and the effect of inflation on their relationship. The hypothesis we test is that higher inflation cause the effect of saving on economic growth to be lower. For this purpose, a sample of a panel data for 67 developing countries over the time period 1995-2014 is used. Our empirical results imply that higher inflation has a negative significant effect on the relationship between the rate of saving and economic growth. In effect, our main finding is that the effect of the rate of saving on the economic growth is higher for developing countries with lower inflation rates.
توسعه مالی
Farshid Pourshahabi; Marzie Esfandiari
Volume 7, Issue 28 , September 2017, , Pages 113-126
Abstract
Economic growth has always been an important objective of policy in different countries. In developing countries including Iran, to achieving a reasonable rate of economic growth is essential. Since developing countries are facing with low efficiency of investment due to technological backwardness, so ...
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Economic growth has always been an important objective of policy in different countries. In developing countries including Iran, to achieving a reasonable rate of economic growth is essential. Since developing countries are facing with low efficiency of investment due to technological backwardness, so this set of countries would be taking advantage from foreign direct investment (FDI) as a source of capital accumulation and promote economic growth. Iran has a good potential for utilization of this resource considering to entering the field of FDI after the implementation of the nuclear deal. But the impact of FDI on economic growth needs required fields, including the host country's financial development. Therefore, in this study financial development as an important variable in the FDI inflow and economic growth is considered. The results for 10 developing Asian countries including Iran in the period 1996-2013 indicate that financial development has a determining effect on FDI inflow to the set of countries, but this is not enough and political stability is essential for FDI inflow. Also, the results indicate that although FDI has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in these set of countries, but financial development has a deterrent effect on economic growth of these countries due to the weak institutions and inefficiency in the allocation of funds.
Quality of Environment
Majid Ahmadian; Ghahreman Abdoli; Farkhondeh Jebel Ameli; Mahmood Shabankhah; seyed adel khorasani
Volume 7, Issue 27 , July 2017, , Pages 17-28
Abstract
In recent decades environment has been an important issue more than any other time. Hence, this study investigated the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality indicator in selected developing countries (including 32 country) for the period 2002-2013 by using a dynamic panel method ...
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In recent decades environment has been an important issue more than any other time. Hence, this study investigated the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality indicator in selected developing countries (including 32 country) for the period 2002-2013 by using a dynamic panel method based on generalized method of moments (GMM). The results show that there is a positive and significant relationship between economics growth and degradation of environment (environmental quality degradation), which means that an increase in environment degradation indicator increased the economic growth. This case is because of the rate of resource depletion begins to exceed the rate of resource regeneration and Pollution Haven Hypothesis in the studied countries. The results of Sargen and Arellano-bond autocorrelation test also respectively show, there is correlation between tools and component disruption and model does not have autocorrelation in the first order difference. Meanwhile results of Toda and Yamamoto Causality test show the existence of unilateral relationship from the Environment Degradation indicator to Economic Growth.
s
Mohammad Mahdi Bargi Oskooee; Mohammad Khodaverdizadeh; Saber Khodaverdizadeh; Ali Vafamand
Volume 7, Issue 27 , July 2017, , Pages 65-80
Abstract
This paper investigates the threshold effects of income inequality on economic growth in developing countries for the period of 2000 to 2012, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. The linearity test results indicate strongly nonlinear relationship among variables under consideration. ...
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This paper investigates the threshold effects of income inequality on economic growth in developing countries for the period of 2000 to 2012, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. The linearity test results indicate strongly nonlinear relationship among variables under consideration. Moreover, considering one transition function and one threshold parameter, as a two regime model, is sufficient to specification of nonlinear relationship among variables.The results indicate thatthreshold value for developing countries is 0.43 and the estimated slopeparameter is 0.35. In the first regime the impact of income inequality is positive and in the second regime has a negative impact on economic growth. human capital in the both regimes has symmetric and consistent effect on economic growth. Other results indicate that population growth and trade openness had been asymmetric effect on economic growth in the both regimes.
Dynamic Panel Data
Franak Aghazadeh bektash; Monireh Dizaji
Volume 7, Issue 27 , July 2017, , Pages 125-142
Abstract
Quality of government intervention in the economy or in other words the efficiency and effectiveness of government, has a close relation with the development.Because policy makers are often ineffective, inefficient bureaucracy will be created. The inefficiency of the government can be very dangerous ...
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Quality of government intervention in the economy or in other words the efficiency and effectiveness of government, has a close relation with the development.Because policy makers are often ineffective, inefficient bureaucracy will be created. The inefficiency of the government can be very dangerous for development and economic security and will lead to waste of resources, monopolism, mistrust of government, economic instability and inappropriate institutionalization. This research examines the empirical relationship between the efficiency and effectiveness of government and economic growth in the context of GMM model using combined data for 121 countries of the world in the period from 1996 to 2013 in two separate groups for developing as well as developed coutries. The results show the positive impact of the efficiency and effectiveness of government spending on economic growth.
Economic Growth
Yousef Mohammadzadeh; Samad Hekmati Farid; Elmira Sharifi
Volume 7, Issue 26 , February 2017, , Pages 97-112
Abstract
Although it is generally agreed that there is a role for the government to redistribute income in favor of the poor and provide public goods and services, there is considerable disagreement over how far the government should go in these areas.On this issue, a variety of conflicting theoretical explanations ...
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Although it is generally agreed that there is a role for the government to redistribute income in favor of the poor and provide public goods and services, there is considerable disagreement over how far the government should go in these areas.On this issue, a variety of conflicting theoretical explanations has been advanced that can only be resolved through empiricalinvestigations. According to importance of this issue the important question arises that, what is the effect of government size on good governance and economic performance? This study examines the relationship between government size, good governance and economic performance by estimating dynamic models using panel data from 50 selected countries for the period 1996-2013.The results show that the government size, and inflation have a negative and statistically significant effect on good governance indicator. Also employment index has a positive and significant impact on good governance indicator.The growth model also indicates that the government size has a negative and good governance indicator has a positive effect on economic growth. The interactions effects of government size and good governance indicator show that the size of government through governance indicator has a negative impact on economic growth. Also human development index, foreign direct investment, export and ICT's share of the imported goods have positive and significant effect on economic growth. Shrinking the size of the government and reducing its involvement in the economy, are two key policy recommendations of this study.
Monetary policy
Seyed Ziyaodin Kiya Hoseini; Mona Hashemi; Amin Hatami; Rafik Nazariyan
Volume 7, Issue 26 , February 2017, , Pages 113-124
Abstract
The most important objectives of monetary policy are to provide price stability, economic growth and favorable employment levels. Since achieving these goals is not directly accessible for policy makers, so introducing and studying the appropriate tools and intermediate targets seem necessary. For this ...
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The most important objectives of monetary policy are to provide price stability, economic growth and favorable employment levels. Since achieving these goals is not directly accessible for policy makers, so introducing and studying the appropriate tools and intermediate targets seem necessary. For this reason, this paper tries to answer this question: Whether can we introduce an appropriate rule/procedure as monetary policy [or not]. Therefore, this paper applied the well-known procedure of McCallum [a rule based on the optimum monetary rate] as well studied its fitness with the economic system of Iran over 1984-2013 by the use of GMM method. The results show that the defined optimum path by McCallum procedure [for the monetary growth rate] can be accounted as the appropriate strategy for the monetary policy in Iran and the economy of Iran can use it as a proper benchmark in its policy decisions.
Energy
Mohammad Hossein Ehsanfar
Volume 7, Issue 25 , November 2016, , Pages 85-96
Abstract
Energy is a basic need to continuity in economic development, supplying and providing welfare and comfort in human life. Due to the limitation and scarcity of resources and also considering the extended role and importance of energy in countries’ growth and economic development, determining the ...
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Energy is a basic need to continuity in economic development, supplying and providing welfare and comfort in human life. Due to the limitation and scarcity of resources and also considering the extended role and importance of energy in countries’ growth and economic development, determining the effective elements on energy demand is of a special importance. There have been many studies on energy demand in Iran. But this study has taken a different approach. This study deals with both the effect of energy market integration and the effect of economic growth on energy consumption in Iran’s economy during 1975 to 2014, using generalized method of moments. In this study, empirical results showed that integration of energy market and economic growth has significant positive effects on energy consumption. Also the price elasticity of energy demand in all models indicate the low elasticity in Iran’s economy during the mentioned years. Income elasticity has been estimated larger than one in final models.
Dynamic Panel Data
Mohammad Reza Lotfalipour; Mohammad Hossein Mahdavi Adeli
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, , Pages 17-38
Abstract
Due to limitation of energy resources and its importance in the supply chain as the final products for consumers and inputs for manufacturers on the one hand, and On the other hand, due to the large fluctuations in prices and increased greenhouse gas emissions conservation policies and factors affecting ...
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Due to limitation of energy resources and its importance in the supply chain as the final products for consumers and inputs for manufacturers on the one hand, and On the other hand, due to the large fluctuations in prices and increased greenhouse gas emissions conservation policies and factors affecting supply and demand in recent decades have been considered by the scientific and policy communities. In this study, the relationship between energy consumption, export and economic growth in the industrial sector of the Iranian economy has been tested.For this purpose, the panel data of energy consumption, export and value added of the industrial sector in the ISIC 2-digit level detail over the years 2002 to 2012 were used. To study causality and dynamics between variables in the industrial sector the Toda-Yamamoto causality and vector error correction model were used. The results show bidirectional short-run, long-run and strong causality between variables, Except for one case that from exports to energy consumption and economic growth in the short run, there is no causality.
Economic Growth
Morteza Salehi Sarbijan
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, , Pages 55-68
Abstract
Economic growth forecast is a major problem in economy that has a significant impact in government policy and economic planning. It also helps policy makers for future decisions. Multivariate econometric forecasting models associated with many limitations, so an alternative approach is the use of univariate ...
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Economic growth forecast is a major problem in economy that has a significant impact in government policy and economic planning. It also helps policy makers for future decisions. Multivariate econometric forecasting models associated with many limitations, so an alternative approach is the use of univariate models, but most of these methods need a lot of data to achieve the best result. In this study, data from 1959 to 2005 were used to estimate the models. Then the performances of auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the economic growth forecast of Iran was evaluated and compared with Markov switching method and fuzzy neural network (ANFIS) for the period from 2006 to 2013 using the Criteria RMSE, MAE and MAPE. Results showed that ANFIS model had the best performance. Furthermore, Markov switching method was more suitable than ARIMA model.
توسعه مالی
Sadegh Ali Movahed Manesh
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, , Pages 69-82
Abstract
Financial markets is one of the most important mechanisms to attract investment and efficient distribution of assets by transferring savings to investment.Given the importance of insurance in the country's economic activities, the effect of insurance industry on the GDP of Iran is calculated. Thus the ...
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Financial markets is one of the most important mechanisms to attract investment and efficient distribution of assets by transferring savings to investment.Given the importance of insurance in the country's economic activities, the effect of insurance industry on the GDP of Iran is calculated. Thus the insurance penetration rate and degree of trade openness on GDP in Iran during 1971-2013 were examined. The generalized model of Avram (2010) were used. Long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables of the model was confirmed by Johansen-Juselius tests. According to GMM, the results showed a positive effect of country's insurance penetration rate on the GDP of Iran.
f
MohammadAli Maghsoudpour
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, , Pages 83-106
Abstract
This paper uses the endogenous growth model and the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Method (ARDL), has been done during 1976 to 2014. To measure the distribution of the population, provincial capitals were selected. Then using Herfindahl -Hirschman Index (HHI), their population distribution calculated ...
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This paper uses the endogenous growth model and the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Method (ARDL), has been done during 1976 to 2014. To measure the distribution of the population, provincial capitals were selected. Then using Herfindahl -Hirschman Index (HHI), their population distribution calculated and as an index of heterogeneousdistribution of population has been added to the economic model of endogenous growth. The results show a negative impact of uneven distribution of population on economic growth of Iran. According to the results, the application of the policies of decentralization and balanced distribution of the population recommended.
International Commerce
Ebrahim Anvari; Ahmad Salahmanesh; Majid Sheikh Ansari; Mahvash Moradi
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, , Pages 119-132
Abstract
Investigating the effect of government corruption and financial liberalization on economic growth is a fundamental issue in recent economic literature. However, considering these two phenomena simultaneously have been ignored by researchers. This paper, empirically and theoretically, studies how negative ...
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Investigating the effect of government corruption and financial liberalization on economic growth is a fundamental issue in recent economic literature. However, considering these two phenomena simultaneously have been ignored by researchers. This paper, empirically and theoretically, studies how negative effect of corruption can be affected by financial liberalization. The results show that, by liberalizing financial account, high corrupt countries levy more taxes and therefore the negative effect of corruption on economic growth intensified. In empirical model, we include OPEC countries for the duration of 1990-2013. Estimation results by GMM method show that the negative signs of the interaction between financial liberalization and corruption imply that the partial impact of financial openness on economic growth decreases as the degree of corruption increases.
