s
masoud saadatmehr; ali Younessi; Davood Shiran
Abstract
The present study has investigated the correlation of volatility between stock, oil and gas markets in Iran and its impact on the country's economic growth. In this regard, the method of constant conditional correlation analysis (CCC) of the autoregressive model conditional on heterogeneity of multivariate ...
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The present study has investigated the correlation of volatility between stock, oil and gas markets in Iran and its impact on the country's economic growth. In this regard, the method of constant conditional correlation analysis (CCC) of the autoregressive model conditional on heterogeneity of multivariate generalized variances (MGARCH) has been used. The data of this study have been collected and used quarterly in the period 2004-2023.The results show that volatility in all markets is dependent on the previous period's shocks in the same market, in other words, the self-effects in all markets are statistically significant.The results indicate that oil market shocks significantly increase stock market volatility. Conversely, stock market shock is contagious to oil market volatility. Also, stock market and oil market volatility are contagious to the gas market. The results showed that stock market shocks reduce economic growth volatility and oil market shocks increase economic growth volatility in Iran. Despite the existence of spillovers between markets, there are no spillover effects of volatility between these markets, such that volatility in one market does not affect volatility in other markets
Economic Growth
salman sotoudeh nia korani; Batool Shafiezad Abkenar
Abstract
Economic uncertainty is a major challenge in economic policymaking and economic growth in Iran. In uncertain conditions, investors may be inclined to transfer their capital to other countries, which can lead to a decrease in the money supply and, as a result, a decrease in economic growth. The aim of ...
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Economic uncertainty is a major challenge in economic policymaking and economic growth in Iran. In uncertain conditions, investors may be inclined to transfer their capital to other countries, which can lead to a decrease in the money supply and, as a result, a decrease in economic growth. The aim of the present study was to study the effect of uncertainty on economic growth and monetary policies in Iran. In order to study the effect of uncertainty on the efficiency of monetary policy and economic growth, the interaction vector autoregression (IVAR) methodology used by Astwain et al. (2017: 62) was used. The results of the study showed that economic uncertainty significantly affects monetary policies and economic growth in Iran. To reduce the negative effects of economic uncertainty, there is a need for coherent policy planning and the creation of public trust. In particular, the government and economic policymakers should seek solutions that will gain investor confidence and provide the necessary conditions for sustainable economic growth. This paper can also be used as a theoretical basis for future research on the impact of economic uncertainty on monetary policies and economic growth in similar countries.
Economic Growth
ehsan zanganeh
Abstract
Today, transportation services are referred to as an industry in the world, which indicates the extent and importance of these services as a link between industries and a factor in the relationship between consumer and production markets. In this study, the Solow extended production function approach ...
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Today, transportation services are referred to as an industry in the world, which indicates the extent and importance of these services as a link between industries and a factor in the relationship between consumer and production markets. In this study, the Solow extended production function approach was used to examine the development of transportation infrastructure on the country's GDP, and the DeMello model was considered to estimate the effects of infrastructure development. For this purpose, the spatial panel method was used using provincial data from 1390 to 1401. The results of the study indicate that increasing investment in the transportation sector of each province led to the growth of the GDP of that province and an increase in freight and passenger traffic in a province led to a decrease in the per capita production of that province. Changes in the capital stock of the transportation sector of a province have a negative effect on the per capita production of other neighboring provinces. Also, the number of passengers transported in a particular province increases the per capita production in other neighboring provinces.
Seyed Hadi Mousavinik; Sholeh Bagheri Pormehr; Amirhosein Askari; Mahdieh Bayat
Abstract
Energy poverty, a key dimension of multidimensional poverty, significantly affects household physical and mental health. Understanding this relationship is vital for shaping effective energy and social policies. This study examines the impact of energy poverty on household health in Iran using survey ...
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Energy poverty, a key dimension of multidimensional poverty, significantly affects household physical and mental health. Understanding this relationship is vital for shaping effective energy and social policies. This study examines the impact of energy poverty on household health in Iran using survey data and an Ordinal Probit regression model. Core explanatory variables include the ratio of energy expenses to total spending and income-based definitions. Findings reveal that greater energy poverty reflected in higher energy burdens and lower incomes is strongly linked to poorer health outcomes. These associations remain robust after controlling for demographic and socioeconomic factors, such as the age of the household head, number of children under 18, and multidimensional poverty status. The study also identifies significant provincial disparities in health, indicating spatial inequalities that require targeted policy responses. Housing conditions, including homeownership and floor space, are associated with health status, highlighting the multifaceted nature of household vulnerability. In conclusion, energy poverty is not just an economic issue but a serious public health risk. Policy solutions must go beyond income support to include regional and multidimensional measures, such as targeted subsidies, improved energy efficiency, and infrastructure development. These findings emphasize integrating energy justice and health equity into national strategies, especially for vulnerable and energy-insecure households.
Economic Growth
amir taghavi; Gholamreza Zamanian; sahar bashiri; Mosayeb Pahlavani
Abstract
Achieving economic growth and development is one of the most important concerns of any economic system. A developed financial system is considered one of the most important requirements for achieving sustainable economic growth and development; therefore, considering limited resources, financing investments, ...
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Achieving economic growth and development is one of the most important concerns of any economic system. A developed financial system is considered one of the most important requirements for achieving sustainable economic growth and development; therefore, considering limited resources, financing investments, allocating and directing resources towards productive sectors and activities, and on the other hand, the necessity of increasing productivity and optimal use of production factors in order to achieve maximum economic growth efficiency and increase competitiveness in order to improve economic performance, is very important. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to examine the effect of credit and productivity on the growth of value added of Iran's economic sectors by using seasonal time series data and using the generalized factor vector autovariance (FAVAR) approach in the time period q41402-q11391. According to the results of the study, the response of value added growth of economic sectors to credit and productivity shocks is not uniformly distributed in terms of timing and magnitude; In a way, the industrial sector has been more sensitive to credit and machinery capital formation, the agricultural sector to productivity, and the services sector to the exchange rate in a sectoral comparison.
بازار سرمایه
sara marashi aliabadi
Abstract
Since the beginning of economics, the causes of business cycles have been one of the most important subjects. Recognizing the mentioned causes, allows economic policy makers to adopt appropriate policies in order to reduce the negative consequences of business cycles. According to the economic literature, ...
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Since the beginning of economics, the causes of business cycles have been one of the most important subjects. Recognizing the mentioned causes, allows economic policy makers to adopt appropriate policies in order to reduce the negative consequences of business cycles. According to the economic literature, stock market changes, is one of the causes of business cycles and, affects the business cycles through four channels: wealth effect on consumption channel, investment channel, balance sheet effect channel and confidence effect channel. Considering the importance of the topic, in this article, was investigated the effect of stock market variables on business cycles, including the stock index growth and its fluctuations, using the nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive model and the Iran’s annual data during the period 1995-2023. The results showed that by choosing the stock price index growth as the transition variable, there are two regimes: the stock market recession periods and the stock market boom period. In the first regime, the growth of the stock index and the increase in its volatility increase the economic growth. While during the expansion period, the growth of the stock index increases the economic growth and the increase of the market fluctuations causes the decrease of the economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the effect of stock market variables on business cycles when adopting economic policies.
توسعه مالی
Sohrab Delangizan; maryam poshtehkeshi; azad khanzadi
Abstract
The impact of FinTech panel on smart financial development is a relatively new research area. Despite a rich body of literature on the drivers of financial development and the role of FinTech in achieving financial inclusion, significant questions remain unanswered. In this study, by introducing and ...
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The impact of FinTech panel on smart financial development is a relatively new research area. Despite a rich body of literature on the drivers of financial development and the role of FinTech in achieving financial inclusion, significant questions remain unanswered. In this study, by introducing and constructing a smart financial development index, we investigate the impact of financial technologies on the performance of smart financial development for Iranian provinces during the period 2011-2021, using the dynamic spatial panel method. Based on spatial econometrics tests, the Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) approach was used to estimate the relationships between the model's variables. The estimation results show that with an increase in financial technology variables, trade openness, and institutional quality index, smart financial development increases. Furthermore, during the studied period, an increase in price levels had an inverse effect on smart financial development. The estimated value of the spatial lag variable is positive and significant at the one percent level, indicating that an increase in smart financial development in a particular province leads to an increase in smart financial development in neighboring provinces
s
Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh
Abstract
Following the 2008 global financial crisis, the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and exchange rate dynamics has garnered significant attention. In Iran, this nexus is particularly complex due to structural shocks and extensive interventions. This study employs a Continuous Wavelet ...
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Following the 2008 global financial crisis, the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and exchange rate dynamics has garnered significant attention. In Iran, this nexus is particularly complex due to structural shocks and extensive interventions. This study employs a Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) to analyze quarterly data from 1980:Q1 to 2024:Q2, dissecting the dynamic relationship across various time-frequency domains.The findings reveal that in the short run (less than 1 year), a strong, in-phase feedback loop exists between EPU and the exchange rate, where each variable reinforces the other. In the medium run (1–4 years), the relationship becomes more intricate; alongside the persistent in-phase causality, an inverse relationship from the exchange rate to EPU emerges, indicating adaptive economic responses. In the long run (more than 4 years), a stable and unidirectional inverse causality from the exchange rate to EPU is observed. This time-horizon decomposition is based on the standard wavelet analysis literature, distinguishing between business, cyclical, and long-term components.This finding confirms that artificially suppressing the exchange rate as a stabilization tool is counterproductive, as it merely shifts policy uncertainty to longer horizons, thereby contradicting its objective.
