OPEC
mohsen jafari; marziyeh esfandiari; mosayeb pahlavani
Abstract
The positive role of financial market development in reducing the effect of natural resources curse on the economic growth of countries is determined when the development of the financial sector in a country can allocate the income from natural resources to development and capital projects and finally, ...
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The positive role of financial market development in reducing the effect of natural resources curse on the economic growth of countries is determined when the development of the financial sector in a country can allocate the income from natural resources to development and capital projects and finally, lead to economic growth. Therefore, in this study, the effect of oil revenue governance on the economic growth of selected OPEC member countries was investigated, with an emphasis on the development of the banking sector, using the PVAR GMM method. For this purpose, the required data was gathered from the Global Financial Development Database (GFDD), World Development Indicators (WDI), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the database of selected OPEC member countries (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria, UAE, and Libya) from 2003 to 2022, and STATA software was used to analyze the data. Results showed that the governance indicators of oil revenues (public and private investment share of oil revenues) and banking sector development indicators have a positive effect on economic growth. Also, oil revenues have had a significant positive effect on economic growth, but with the increase in growth of oil revenues, economic growth has decreased, indicating the existence of a curse of natural resources or Dutch disease in the countries under study. Finally, the indicators of banking sector development strengthen the positive effect of governance indicators of oil revenues on economic growth and thus reduce the negative effects of natural resources curse in mentioned countries.
Energy
Dhulfiqar Hameed Abed Hameed Abed; Yousef Mohammadzadeh; Ali Rezazadeh
Abstract
Today, energy is one of the economic and even political challenges within and between the countries of the world. Reducing energy intensity or increasing energy efficiency is a priority in the planning of policy makers of major countries. The important thing is that along with the phenomenon of globalization, ...
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Today, energy is one of the economic and even political challenges within and between the countries of the world. Reducing energy intensity or increasing energy efficiency is a priority in the planning of policy makers of major countries. The important thing is that along with the phenomenon of globalization, the developments of one country spread to other countries, which has been more attention in recent studies. Hence, the present study examines the energy intensity spillover and the factors affecting it with an emphasis on financial development among 35 countries of the Asian continent during the years 2000-2021. This study has used the dynamic spatial panel approach (with two SAR and SDM approaches) for this purpose. The results of this research show that energy intensity spreads spatially between neighboring countries, so that an increase in energy intensity in one country also increases energy intensity in the neighboring country. Also, financial development has a negative effect on energy intensity, and therefore countries with higher financial development have been able to reduce their energy intensity. Also, a higher degree of economic freedom and a lower level of corruption have had a negative impact on energy intensity. On the other hand, the countries that have enjoyed more natural resource rents have had significantly higher energy intensity. Another important point is that financial development spatially has a negative impact and the abundance of natural resources has a positive spatial impact on energy intensity in neighboring countries.
s
robabeh khilkordi; Nezamuddin makiyan; habib ansarisamani
Abstract
Exchange rate volatility is very important because of its adverse effects on economic performance and especially economic stability. In this regard, the present study investigates the behavior of the most important macroeconomic variables on exchange rate fluctuations in Iran's economy based on the quarterly ...
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Exchange rate volatility is very important because of its adverse effects on economic performance and especially economic stability. In this regard, the present study investigates the behavior of the most important macroeconomic variables on exchange rate fluctuations in Iran's economy based on the quarterly data of 1997-2022. For this purpose, first, to identify the most important variables affecting exchange rate fluctuations, the dynamic model averaging approach model with time-varying coefficients (TVP-DMA) was used, and in the next step, to examine the effects of the identified variables on the behavior of exchange rate fluctuations auto-explanatory vector model augmented with time-varying parameters (TVP-FAVAR) has been used. The results show that the variables of exchange rate volatility, budget deficit, inflation rate and economic sanctions are the most important variables affecting the behavior of the exchange rate in the Iranian economy during the period under review. At the same time, the type and intensity of the impulses of each of the economic variables in the occurrence of exchange rate fluctuations have been different over time, which makes it necessary to use econometric approaches with a dynamic nature in the matter of modeling the exchange rate fluctuations as accurately as possible and then predicting the range more accurately.
ا
Mehdi Hoseinpour Naderi; Fateme Alijani
Abstract
The agriculture sector has still a significant share of Iranian economy. Therefore, job creation in agriculture sector is important. For this purpose, it is necessary to identify the determinants of agricultural growth. One of these factors is bank credit that According to some economic theories, it ...
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The agriculture sector has still a significant share of Iranian economy. Therefore, job creation in agriculture sector is important. For this purpose, it is necessary to identify the determinants of agricultural growth. One of these factors is bank credit that According to some economic theories, it increases employment. Some economists believe that the type of bank ownership (state or private) impact on this relationship. Some believe that the credits of state banks cause more jobs but the others disagree. Therefore, it is necessary for researches to answer these questions: What role does the type of ownership of banks play in the effectiveness of bank credits? In this regard, the study aims to examine the impact of bank credit on agricultural employment emphasized the role of bank ownership. For this purpose, the ARDL and Fuzzy-ARDL method is used. The used quarterly data cover winter 2009 to spring 2018. The findings of the research show that the overall effect of bank credits is positive, but the credits granted by state banks have a greater impact on the employment of the agricultural sector compared to the credits of private banks. This finding is in accordance with the opinion of the advocates of state interference in granting bank credit. In addition, investment has a positive effect and wage has a negative effect on employment.
Inflation
Faramarz Tahmasebi
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of inflation on investment in a combination of physical and financial assets. The main research question is how the optimal investment portfolio of the people changes with the change of the inflationary conditions and the escalation of the inflation ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of inflation on investment in a combination of physical and financial assets. The main research question is how the optimal investment portfolio of the people changes with the change of the inflationary conditions and the escalation of the inflation rate? For this purpose, the optimal combination of assets such as dollar, gold coin, equity, bonds, housing, bank deposits and land was extracted in different inflationary conditions during the period of 1991-2021 using Markowitz's mean-variance model. The results indicated that assets are moved in the people’s investment portfolio due to the change in the inflationary conditions. Where the inflation rate was lower than its 30-year average, the best investment combination for people were bonds, housing, equiy and bank deposits, respectively. With the escalating inflationary conditions and the inflation rate higher than the 30-year average, the optimal investment portfolio includes bonds, gold coins, equity and land, respectively. Comparing the composition of assets in the first to fourth quartiles of inflation represented that the bonds, housing, equity and gold coin are the first priorities of people's investment.
s
Abbas memarzadeh
Abstract
In this study, by considering the asymmetric response of the aggregate and sector-level value-added to the positive and negative oil rent shocks, a new insight into the oil curse hypothesis is provided for the case of Iran. Using annual data from 1988 to 2022 and the NARDL model, the findings ...
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In this study, by considering the asymmetric response of the aggregate and sector-level value-added to the positive and negative oil rent shocks, a new insight into the oil curse hypothesis is provided for the case of Iran. Using annual data from 1988 to 2022 and the NARDL model, the findings indicate that the aggregate growth shows an asymmetric reaction to positive and negative oil rent shocks just in the long run. Although this asymmetry is also confirmed for sector-level growth, the instinct of that varies significantly among them. Our analysis supports the oil curse hypothesis in Iran, and this curse channels via the Dutch Disease mechanism in the manufacturing sector. So, even though diversification remains a key policy agenda to decrease the level of oil rent dependence, policymakers should consider the harmful impact of oil rent decrease on the growth of certain economic sectors. Therefore, the effectiveness of any diversification policy mainly depends on whether the policy makers have a full understanding of the heterogeneous response of economic sectors to crude oil rent shocks.
Seyed Ehsan Hosseinidoust; Hamid Sepehrdoost; Farshid Moradi
Abstract
Poverty is one of the oldest and even the most important problems of human societies, which affects various aspects of individual and social life. Due to the multi-dimensional nature of this phenomenon, dealing with the factors affecting it has always been one of the challenging issues in economic discussions ...
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Poverty is one of the oldest and even the most important problems of human societies, which affects various aspects of individual and social life. Due to the multi-dimensional nature of this phenomenon, dealing with the factors affecting it has always been one of the challenging issues in economic discussions and solving this problem is one of the important goals that are considered in all of the economic planning. Considering the guidelines of Islam regarding to the economic welfare and poverty alleviation of the society, the lack of a study that examines the effect of various variables on the capability poverty index in Muslim countries is noticeable. Moreover, the studies conducted on other countries are along with contradictions in their findings, which doubles the necessity of investigating this issue. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to investigate the effect of factors affecting capability poverty in the selected Muslim countries known as the D8 group relying on the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method during the period of 1997-2021. Results show the negative and significant effect of globalization on capability poverty in the D8 countries during the covered period, such that for each unit increase in the globalization index, capability poverty decreases by 1.8%, which indicates a relative improvement in the welfare of these countries. Likewise, the impact of economic growth on capability poverty is positive, so that a one percent increases in economic growth leads to an increase in capability poverty by 0.21 percent. Such finding can be due to not utilization of the benefits of growth to improve welfare infrastructure in the mentioned countries. In addition, the effect of control variables such as inflation and geographical distribution of the population has also been evaluated positively on capability poverty. Based on the findings of the current study, it is recommended to adopt inflation control programs and moving towards the promotion of globalization indicators in the economies of the D8 group.
