s
Zahra Sharif; Masoud Nonejad; Ali Haghighat; Mehrzad Ebrahimi
Abstract
The fundamental question of this study is whether the variables that generally lead to increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time can reduce the prices level with the same intensity and during the same time period? To answer this question, according ...
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The fundamental question of this study is whether the variables that generally lead to increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time can reduce the prices level with the same intensity and during the same time period? To answer this question, according to the stylized facts and evidence of Iran’s economy, the results of the most important studies available, and the accurate official statistics, we investigate the main economic factors affecting the inflation in Iran. In this regard, using monthly time series data of economic factors (which include the liquidity, GDP, Iran's crude oil prices, and openness) over the period from November 2008 to October 2018, an error correction model based on hidden cointegration approach, CECM (Crouching Error Correction Model), has been used to differentiate between the asymmetric behaviour of variables through decomposing the variables into positive and negative components to distinguish the accurate relationships between the variables when they increase and decrease. The results of this study, while confirming the existence of the significant asymmetric relationships between the economic factors and inflation, emphasised on the incomplete pass-through of all of the factors mentioned above into the inflation rate. Furthermore, these results have confirmed the crucial role of the liquidity and real GDP in comparison to the other research variables to control the inflation rate. The results also highlighted that the period of returning the inflation rate to its long-run equilibrium would be significantly different if the policy of increase or decrease in each of the economic factors occurs; consequently, this issue should be taken into account in inflation-targeting policies.
ی
ehsan taheri; Hossein Sadeghi; lotfali agheli; alireza naseri
Abstract
Reduction in the access to health care services and spread of disease can have a negative effects on the economic growth and welfare of the community by reducing the labor force participation. Increasing government health expenditures is one of the ways to overcome these problems. However, implementing ...
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Reduction in the access to health care services and spread of disease can have a negative effects on the economic growth and welfare of the community by reducing the labor force participation. Increasing government health expenditures is one of the ways to overcome these problems. However, implementing this policy, along with its positive effects, will have a negative impact on the effective labor supply of other sectors. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate these effects using a computable general equilibrium model based on the 2011 social accounting matrix of Iran. The results showed that illness, reduced welfare and real GDP, but increasing government health expenditures, increased welfare in the short run and long run. Although effects on real GDP depend on the closure of labor market, so that in the situation of immobile labor force of the health sector, it is decreased, but with full labor mobility, it increased. So because of the positive welfare effects of government health expenditures, it is suggested that government still more invest in this sector. Also to reducing the costs and preventing the real GDP reduction it is necessary to provide the ground to increase labor force in the health sector in such a way as to the labor supply of other activities doesn’t decrease.
International Commerce
hana abolhasanbeigi; Alireza Kazerooni; Mahdi Barghi Oskooee; Hossein Asgharpur
Abstract
Inflation volatility is one of the characteristics of Iranian economy over the past four decades. Inflation volatility by creating macroeconomic instability can affect the relation of economic variables. The purpose of this study is the evaluation of the impact of nonlinear inflation volatility on the ...
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Inflation volatility is one of the characteristics of Iranian economy over the past four decades. Inflation volatility by creating macroeconomic instability can affect the relation of economic variables. The purpose of this study is the evaluation of the impact of nonlinear inflation volatility on the relationships between the Iranian trade balance with the exchange rate during the 1973-2016. For this purpose, firstlyinflation volatility by using EGARCH method has been estimated and the model was estimated by Markov-switching model. The results show that the behavior of trade balance in Iran can be divided in 3 regimes (high, medium and low trade deficit). Increased exchange rate has induced the improvement of trade balance in 3 regimes. The effect of inflation volatility on the relationship of exchange rate to trade balance in the high and medium trade deficit regime is insignificant. Whereas in the regime 3 (low trade balance deficit) is negative and significant. So that in the regime 3(low trade deficit) inflation volatility has caused to debilitation of exchange rate effect on the trade balance and with the increase in inflation volatility exchange rate effect on the trade balance is further debilitation.
Economic Growth
Keyumars Amiri; Ali Asghar Anvari Rostami; Mehrdad Ghanbari; Babak Jamshidinavid
Abstract
Since the tax system is the main source of government revenue and fiscal policy instruments for distributing income and wealth and is highly sensitive to economic fluctuations and shocks to GDP, it is considered to be the decisive factor in the realization of the economy. Therefore, the evolution of ...
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Since the tax system is the main source of government revenue and fiscal policy instruments for distributing income and wealth and is highly sensitive to economic fluctuations and shocks to GDP, it is considered to be the decisive factor in the realization of the economy. Therefore, the evolution of the tax system is necessary to improve its status in terms of its functions and to achieve the objectives set forth in the Sixth plan, in particular its quantitative objectives. The present study first examines the current state of the tax system within the framework of tax indices and explains the objectives of the Sixth plan for each of these indices and then, considering the major challenges of the tax system, plans to create changes in the country's tax system. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the tax system of the country on the one hand, and on the other hand, to rank the selected tax system. To identify the tax system by experts, the principal components identified by the 10 experts were assessed using the Delphi approach and finally by the 31 components that were probable in the tax system. Then the identified components were evaluated by DANP method and the inefficiency of the legal system was introduced as the most important component. Also, Vikor's results showed that the first rank Alborz Province Tax organization, then Tehran Province Tax belonges to Organization and the third rank belonged to Kermanshah Tax Organization.
Economic Growth
mahnaz hoseinpur; kambiz hojabr kiani; fatemeh zandi; ali dehghani; khalil saeedi
Abstract
In this paper, firstly, the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Iran (1980-2016) and MENA countries (2000-2016) is investigated using VAR and PVAR models. Further, the government expenditure multiplier are calculated and compared comparatively using the impulse response functions ...
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In this paper, firstly, the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Iran (1980-2016) and MENA countries (2000-2016) is investigated using VAR and PVAR models. Further, the government expenditure multiplier are calculated and compared comparatively using the impulse response functions of each model. At the end, the effect of each factor is investigated determining the government expenditure multiplier in separate models for Iran and selected countries of the MENA for a better analysis and a closer investigation of the subject. According to the literature, results indicate that: Firstly, the shock of government expenditure in MENA selected countries and Iran, together, led to a relatively strong increase in economic growth. Secondly, in developing countries such as the countries of MENA region, especially in Iran, government- expenditure multipliers were smaller than one and close to zero. The government expenditure multiplier in MENA selected countries is more than Iran in short-term, but in the long run, the government expenditure mulitiplier, in Iran is larger than MENA selected countries. Thirdly, trade openness, public debt, and savings rate both in MENA and in Iran reduce the government expenditure multiplier, but unemployment and financial development increase the multiplier. Public debt has the most impact on the Iranian government expenditure multiplier and trade openness has the most impact in MENA expenditure multiplier.
OPEC
Hoda Zobeiri; Mani Motameni; Atefeh Raeisi
Abstract
Natural resource rents theoretically can stimulate entrepreneurship as a production inputs. In other hands, natural resource rents can change intensives of potential entrepreneurs, reduce opportunity driven entrepreneurship and increase necessity driven entrepreneurship. However, necessity driven entrepreneurship ...
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Natural resource rents theoretically can stimulate entrepreneurship as a production inputs. In other hands, natural resource rents can change intensives of potential entrepreneurs, reduce opportunity driven entrepreneurship and increase necessity driven entrepreneurship. However, necessity driven entrepreneurship is not an unproductive activity, but its impact on economic growth and development is very different from entrepreneurial activities that are based on innovative ideas and technologies which determine the productive capabilities of an economy. This paper has examined the effect of natural resource rents on opportunity driven entrepreneurship and necessity driven entrepreneurship in 45 selected countries during 2008-2017 using GMM. The results show that natural resource rents have significant negative impact on opportunity entrepreneurship while it has significant positive impact on necessity entrepreneurship. Based on the results, oil rents managements along with control of corruption and improve institutional framework are necessary to increase opportunity entrepreneurship in oil rich countries.
s
Ahmad Ali Asadpour
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of uncertainty in inflation, bank finance, bank interest rates, liquidity, stock prices, price index and GDP on housing prices in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, seasonal data has been used during the period 1991 to 2013. EGARCH pattern (1,1) ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of uncertainty in inflation, bank finance, bank interest rates, liquidity, stock prices, price index and GDP on housing prices in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, seasonal data has been used during the period 1991 to 2013. EGARCH pattern (1,1) as an estimation of AR (4) residues for inflation is used as a substitute for inflation uncertainty measurement, and a short-term model and long-term relationships between research variables have been set. The results of short-term model and long-run pattern show that uncertainty regarding inflation, interest rate, liquidity, GDP and national income have a positive and significant effect on housing prices. Indeed, stock prices and housing finance have a negative and significant effect on housing prices. It is noteworthy to state that there are different sensitivities to housing prices in most variables, such as household income per capita, liquidity, and stock price index in the long term and short-term; so that, according to the theory, the elasticity of house prices relative to household income per capita, the volume of money and the stock price index in the long run is more than short-term. The results of the estimation of the error correction model indicate that in each period, about one fourth of the imbalance of dependent variable of its long-term equilibrium values over a period is moderated and eliminated in the subsequent period. In other words, if any shock or inequilibrium occurs in housing prices, it will return to equilibrium after four periods.
