Document Type : Quarterly Journal
Authors
Abstract
International sanctions against Iran have been lead to an increase in demand of foreign exchange and ultimately cause an increase in exchange rate. In this study, we aim to investigate and forecast the consequences of exchange rate increase on economic growth of major economic sectors of Iran during 1976-2014. For this purpose, we used a short scale macro-econometric model which has been estimated by the new co-integration approach. The results show that an increase in exchange rate will reduce the production of all economic sectors. Also, the growth rate of all economic sectors will be reduced to its minimum and then will increase. Also, we have come to the conclusion that the production of oil & gas sector will be reduced more than the other sectors.
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