Identifying the Key Sectors of Golestan Province′s Economy and Evaluating the Impact of Flood on Production and Employment: Application of Expanding Hypothetical Extraction Approach

Khodadad Kashi, Farhad; Ebrahimi, Nasser; Jani, Siavash

doi:10.30473/egdr.2023.68295.6735

Document Type : ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Authors

¹ Professor Department of Economics, Faculty of Management of Payame Noor Unvierstiy, Tehran, Iran

² Ph. D Student in Economics, Payame Noor Unvierstiy, Tehran, Iran.

³ Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor Unvierstiy, Tehran, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.30473/egdr.2023.68295.6735

Abstract

Iran, especially the province of Golestan, has always been exposed to floods, and in addition to causing great damage to the country and the province of Golestan, no proper plan has yet been thought to reduce economic costs. This article tries to identify the key sectors of the province and evaluate the indirect damage of the flood through the construction and agriculture sectors on other sectors of the province. For this purpose, the regional input – output table with two demand side and supply side approaches is used to calculate the backward and forward linkages of the province´s sectors. The results indicate that the industry, construction and agriculture sectors are introduced as the key sectors of the province’s economy. According to both demand side and supply side approaches, two sectors of agriculture and industry suffer the most indirect damage due to the direct damage of the agriculture sector. According to the demand side approach, the result indicate that the most decrease in output is caused by direct damage to the construction sector, respectively, related to the industry, wholesale and retail sectors. On the other hand, industry and agriculture sectors experienced the most decrease in employment. The analysis of flood effects with a supply side approach indicates that the flood not only directly affects the construction sector, but also causes a decrease in employment in the industry, agriculture and construction sectors.

Keywords

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Identifying the Key Sectors of Golestan Province′s Economy and Evaluating the Impact of Flood on Production and Employment: Application of Expanding Hypothetical Extraction Approach

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Volume 14, Issue 54May 2024Pages 169-147

Volume 14, Issue 54
May 2024
Pages 169-147