Monetary policy
Seyed Ahmad Reza Alavi; Mahnaz Rabiei; fatemeh zandi; Abdollah Davani
Abstract
Since the infrastructure of growth and development has not been formed in the developing and oil-producing countries, and also the private sector does not have the power to operate in this field due to institutional reasons, weak financial and sometimes technical ability, among the factors affecting ...
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Since the infrastructure of growth and development has not been formed in the developing and oil-producing countries, and also the private sector does not have the power to operate in this field due to institutional reasons, weak financial and sometimes technical ability, among the factors affecting macroeconomic indicators. In these countries, government spending is more important, which affects the general planning process regarding the allocation of consumption and capital budgets to each of the economic activities. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of consumption and capital spending impulses the government is under Taylor's two rules of money and the growth of the money supply. To achieve this goal, a general equilibrium model of stochastic dynamics based on the new Keynesian view has been designed using the available information and statistics of Iran's economy during the period of 1991-2020 according to the realities of Iran's economy. Comparing the results obtained from the simulation in two separate models shows that there is not much difference between the interest rate tool and the growth rate of money to influence the variables of the real sector of the economy. On the other hand, in order to influence the non-real variables in the face of the mentioned impulses, the growth rate of the money volume has performed better than the interest rate.
Monetary policy
Seyyed Abdolmajid Jalaee Esfand Abadi; Nasim Iranmanesh
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of monetary policy and supply side policy on value added of economic sectors of Iran separately (agriculture, services, industry and mining) during 1974- 2018 in short run and long run. The econometric model used in this study is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) ...
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This study investigates the impact of monetary policy and supply side policy on value added of economic sectors of Iran separately (agriculture, services, industry and mining) during 1974- 2018 in short run and long run. The econometric model used in this study is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that monetary policy has three different effects on the three economic sectors. In the short run. monetary policy is able to increase the value added of the two sectors of agriculture and services, but in the long run it can only increase the value added of the services sector and have no effect on the value added of agricultural sector, while the application of monetary policy, In short run and long run, has a negative impact on the value added of the industry. In contrast, the impact of the supply side policy in all three sectors and in both short and long run is positive, significant and tangible.
Monetary policy
REZA ALAEI; Ahmad Salahmanesh; seyed Aziz Arman
Abstract
In the present study, the effect of economic uncertainty on the efficiency of monetary policy has been investigated using data from the first quarter of 1990 to the fourth quarter of 2017. For the purpose of the present study, first, we determine the optimal economic uncertainty index by using SOS search ...
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In the present study, the effect of economic uncertainty on the efficiency of monetary policy has been investigated using data from the first quarter of 1990 to the fourth quarter of 2017. For the purpose of the present study, first, we determine the optimal economic uncertainty index by using SOS search algorithm. After determining the optimal economic uncertainty index, the Interaction Vector Autoregressive (IVAR) approach used to calculate the impulse response functions (IRFs) of inflation and production variables to the shock of variable under high and low uncertainty levels. The results show that under different levels of uncertainty, the response of production and inflation to the shock of variable is different, so that the response of production variable under low uncertainty is higher than the high uncertainty level, while the response of Inflation is reversed, meaning that the response to this shock, under high uncertainty is higher than the low uncertainty level.
Monetary policy
Mansour Khalili Iraqi; Sajad barkhordari; Amin Gallavani
Abstract
This study attempts to find out the impact of financial development on inflation targeting and monetary policy efficiency in OECD and OPEC countries for the period 2001-2017 based on annual data. For this purpose, the long-term inflation trend, which was extracted by the Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter, ...
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This study attempts to find out the impact of financial development on inflation targeting and monetary policy efficiency in OECD and OPEC countries for the period 2001-2017 based on annual data. For this purpose, the long-term inflation trend, which was extracted by the Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter, is considered as a proxy for the target inflation rate, and the difference between this proxy and the actual inflation rate was entered to the model as a dependent variable. Also, the broad-based index, which had been introduced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2016, optimized by using fuzzy logic, has been used as a proxy for financial development. The results show that in OPEC countries, financial development has been neutral on monetary policy efficiency through output growth, which is consistent with the monetary neutral theory, and also financial development strengthen the efficiency of inflation targeting in these countries. On the other hand, the study indicates in OECD countries, financial development has been neutral on monetary policy efficiency through output growth, and unlike in OPEC countries, financial development has been neutral on inflation targeting efficiency in the period under review. This confirms that a high level of financial development reduces the efficiency of inflation targeting.
Monetary policy
Javad Khalilzadeh; Hassan Heidari; Sahar Bashiri
Abstract
In this paper, the effect of government expenditures with the volume of bank credits on economic growth in Iran, considering the role of monetary policy in the form of a dynamic stochastic genral equilibrium model is studied. for this purpose, we first defined a model consisting of households, production ...
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In this paper, the effect of government expenditures with the volume of bank credits on economic growth in Iran, considering the role of monetary policy in the form of a dynamic stochastic genral equilibrium model is studied. for this purpose, we first defined a model consisting of households, production sector, government and oil, banks and intermediary financial institutions and the monetary status for the Iranian economy. Then, the model of the study was specified and the equations of each section were explained. After specifying the assumptions, characteristics and relationship of different parts of the model with each other, each section was optimized. After simulating the model, the model was fitted with real and simulated ratios and also using the torque variables and finally, the effects of the impuls response to the shock of government expenditures on the variables of production, consumption, investment, facilities and bank deposits were investigated that in many cases, the results have been consistent with the theoretical expectations and economic realities of the country
Monetary policy
Reza Shakeri Bostanabad; Zahra Jalili; Mohsen Salehi Komrudi
Abstract
The importance of monetary policy as one of the most important demand-side policies has led to a discussion of the growth of the volume of money and its impact on various economic sectors, which has always been one of the most challenging topics in macroeconomic literature. While Monetary Policy is usually ...
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The importance of monetary policy as one of the most important demand-side policies has led to a discussion of the growth of the volume of money and its impact on various economic sectors, which has always been one of the most challenging topics in macroeconomic literature. While Monetary Policy is usually performed at a national level, its impact may depend on the properties of regions. Therefore, this research tries to answer the question: Is the Impact of Monetary Policy on the Employment of the Provinces (Iran's Industrial Provinces) is homogenous? For this purpose, using the SFAVAR method the relation between money supply and the Employment of ten Iranian Industrial Provinces in the period 2005:1-2016:4 is studied. The provinces studied were selected based on the share of value added of the industry sector of each province to the total value added of the country's industry. The results reveal the impact of monetary policy on regional employment is small and is limited to short-run. Furthermore, the response of employment to liquidity shock in various provinces is different. Overall, the results show monetary policy cannot be an effective policy to create regional employment; because its effect is slight and short-lived. Therefore, to maintain the stability of the regional economy and to prevent inflation in the provinces of the country, liquidity must be controlled.
Monetary policy
Reza Raei; Mohammad Javad Iravani; tirdad ahmadi
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 29-44
Abstract
The study of the effect of monetary shocks through monetary policy transmission mechanism is one of the topics in the macroeconomic field that is divided into two main polepoints of the neoclassical (demand side) and nonneoclassical (supply side) perspectives. Researchers in different countries have ...
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The study of the effect of monetary shocks through monetary policy transmission mechanism is one of the topics in the macroeconomic field that is divided into two main polepoints of the neoclassical (demand side) and nonneoclassical (supply side) perspectives. Researchers in different countries have studied effects of monetary shocks through these channels on macroeconomics, but in domestic studies, the lack of simultaneous attention to the money neutarlity in the long run and the asymmetry of positive and negative shocks in the presence of monetary policy transmission mechanism is one of the main weaknesses in the discussion. This article is intended to fill this research gap with using the seasonal data of Iran's economy during the period of 1990 to 2016, to study the effect of monetary shocks through transmission channels on production. For this purpose, using the Markov Switching model, negative and positive shocks were extracted. Then, the results of the used model by auto regressive distributed lags method showed that three channels of exchange rate, housing prices and credits are incapable of transferring the effects of monetary policy in the long run. These findings validate long-term monetary neutrality. Also there is asymmetry between positive and negative shocks, and the credit chanel has a stronger role in transferring the monetary policy effects on the economy of Iran than the two other channels.
Monetary policy
Seyed Ziyaodin Kiya Hoseini; Mona Hashemi; Amin Hatami; Rafik Nazariyan
Volume 7, Issue 26 , February 2017, , Pages 113-124
Abstract
The most important objectives of monetary policy are to provide price stability, economic growth and favorable employment levels. Since achieving these goals is not directly accessible for policy makers, so introducing and studying the appropriate tools and intermediate targets seem necessary. For this ...
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The most important objectives of monetary policy are to provide price stability, economic growth and favorable employment levels. Since achieving these goals is not directly accessible for policy makers, so introducing and studying the appropriate tools and intermediate targets seem necessary. For this reason, this paper tries to answer this question: Whether can we introduce an appropriate rule/procedure as monetary policy [or not]. Therefore, this paper applied the well-known procedure of McCallum [a rule based on the optimum monetary rate] as well studied its fitness with the economic system of Iran over 1984-2013 by the use of GMM method. The results show that the defined optimum path by McCallum procedure [for the monetary growth rate] can be accounted as the appropriate strategy for the monetary policy in Iran and the economy of Iran can use it as a proper benchmark in its policy decisions.
Monetary policy
Mohammad Lashkary; Mehdi Behname; maliheh hassani
Volume 6, Issue 23 , May 2016, , Pages 130-115
Abstract
Today in all countries one of the macroeconomic objectives is achieving an acceptable level of labor employment, for that must be regarded capacities and relative advantages for each of the economic sectors. Due to the importance and share of services sector of total employment and exchange rate volatility ...
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Today in all countries one of the macroeconomic objectives is achieving an acceptable level of labor employment, for that must be regarded capacities and relative advantages for each of the economic sectors. Due to the importance and share of services sector of total employment and exchange rate volatility in recent years in Iran; the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on employment for services sector in Iran from 1974 to 2012. The ARCH approach used for estimating real exchange rate uncertainty and ARDL model for employment pattern. According to research results, the real exchange rate uncertainty has a positive impact on employment in services sector in Iran; because the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on employment in agricultural and industry sectors is negative. So the labor departed from agriculture and industry will transfer to services sector. Relationship between added value and per capita capital on employment in this sector is negative, that indicates labor and capital are replaced for each other in which capital replaced for labor in both short and long term. Import of services has positive effect and export of services has negative impact on employment in services sector.
Economic Growth
Mohammad Lashkary
Volume 1, Issue 1 , January 2012, , Pages 105-79
Abstract
The subject of this research is the impact of monetary variables on economic growth in Iran. There is a dispute among economists about the impact of monetary variables on actual ones. Some believe that change in money volume affects only the nominal production and does not have any effect on actual variables ...
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The subject of this research is the impact of monetary variables on economic growth in Iran. There is a dispute among economists about the impact of monetary variables on actual ones. Some believe that change in money volume affects only the nominal production and does not have any effect on actual variables of economy such as actual employment, actual production, and actual economic growth. The others claim, since there is monetary misgiving in economic factors the monetary variables can also influence the actual ones in short run and even long run and escalate the economic growth. The current research investigates different economic theories in this realm and tests them by applying existing information and statistics. This is an analytical and empirical research because it analyses events by experimental observations in several statistical models. On the other hand, it is a comparative study because, in the second section pertaining to the application of economics of money theories and model selection, it applies a model to measure the impact of money volume on economic variables. A descriptive method used in this research. This paper scrutinizes neutrality or non-neutrality of money during a period of 1338 to 1387 solar years in Iran with a monetarists’ approach. Findings show that there is not a significant relationship between money volume and actual economic variables, production and employment, in total and monestary policies are neutral in Iran. Gross domestic product in Iran does not fluctuate intensively except recent years and it has a normal direction. Unemployment rate fluctuates highly and is not normal.
