توسعه مالی
hossein fathizadeh; masooud nonejad; Ali Haghighat; abbas aminifard
Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between economic growth, energy intensity and financial development in the agricultural, industry and mining and services sectors of the Iranian economy. For this purpose, annual time series data of the sectors during the period from 1974 to 2016 were used. ...
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This study investigates the relationship between economic growth, energy intensity and financial development in the agricultural, industry and mining and services sectors of the Iranian economy. For this purpose, annual time series data of the sectors during the period from 1974 to 2016 were used. To analyze the relationships, Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) methods were used. The results of the long-run relationship of the ARDL model show that the impact of energy intensity on the economic growth of industry and mining, and services sectors is negative and significant and positive and significant in agriculture sector. The effect of financial development on economic growth in agriculture sector and industry and mining sector is positive and significant, while despite the positive impact of financial development on economic growth in services sector, the coefficient of this variable is not statistically significant. Furthermore, based on the results of variance decomposition in SVAR model, energy intensity growth and financial development growth have had a large share of economic growth fluctuations in different sectors of Iranian economy. Similarly, economic growth and financial development have also played a significant part in the energy intensity fluctuations of the sectors. Finally, energy intensity has the largest share of fluctuations in financial development in industry sector, while the economic growth has also played a considerable part in the fluctuations of financial development in the services sector.
Economic Growth
Hossien Amiri; Mohsen Salehi Komroudi; Mahnaz Pasban
Abstract
Macroeconomic conditions and the relationship of macroeconomic variables have a major impact on the economic performance of countries. Understanding these relationships helps policymakers manage macroeconomics better. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between economic growth, inflation, ...
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Macroeconomic conditions and the relationship of macroeconomic variables have a major impact on the economic performance of countries. Understanding these relationships helps policymakers manage macroeconomics better. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between economic growth, inflation, interest rate and exchange rate in selected Muslim countries (Bahrain, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar). Therefore Panel VAR method was used for this purpose. The study used panel data from selected countries over the period 2000–2016. According to the results, all variables are stationary and the model was stable. According to Granger causality results inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate were the cause of economic growth; inflation rate, economic growth and exchange rate were the cause of economic growth rate; inflation rate, economic growth and interest rate were the cause of exchange rate and only inflation had not the Granger's causality. Exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation had positive effects on economic growth based on impulse-response functions. Exchange rate, interest rate, and economic growth had very short-term and negatively positive effects on themselves. Exchange rate, inflation and economic growth have had a negative effect on the interest rate. Finally, the effect of interest rate is unclear on exchange rate and inflation rate and economic growth had negative effect on economic growth.
Income inequality
Ali Sarkhosh Sara; Khadije Nasrollahi; Karim Azarbaiejani; Rasoul Bakhsi Dastjerdi
Abstract
Reduction of inequality and social justice by balancing the distribution of income and wealth is one of the concerns of economic policy makers and has been underlined by the constitution law in Iran. In the meantime, the explanation of the relationship between inequality and the factors affecting it ...
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Reduction of inequality and social justice by balancing the distribution of income and wealth is one of the concerns of economic policy makers and has been underlined by the constitution law in Iran. In the meantime, the explanation of the relationship between inequality and the factors affecting it has been a challenging area of economic debate in recent decades, and despite extensive research in this area, there are still many ambiguous issues in this regard. In this regard, in recent years, a new hypothesis has been presented by the French economist Thomas Piketty. In his analysis, Piketty's main factor of inequality is the gap between the rate of return on capital and the economic growth rate (r-g). But, despite offering logical explanations consistent with changes in the patterns of inequality, no empirical test has been done for the scientific-theoretical chain. Therefore, the question arises as to how much Piketty's hypothesis is empirically convincing and capable of explaining the rise of inequality for different countries? For this purpose, this paper, using the Structural Vector Autoregressive pattern (SVAR), analyzes the factors affecting income inequality in Iran within the framework of Thomas Piketty's perspective during the period of 1973-2016. The results of this study showed that the increase of gap (r-g) has no positive and significant relationship with the increase of inequality and share of capital from national income in Iran and there is no evidence to confirm Piketty's hypothesis in Iran.
Economic Growth
Alireza Kazerooni; Hosein Asgharpur; Maryam Nafisi Moghadam
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of political stability and democracy on economic growth in member countries of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). This study estimated panel regression using a Generalizes Method of Moments (GMM) framework, on a sample of 34 OIC member ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of political stability and democracy on economic growth in member countries of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). This study estimated panel regression using a Generalizes Method of Moments (GMM) framework, on a sample of 34 OIC member countries for the period of 1986-2014. In this research, a composite indicator of Internal Conflict, External Conflict, Military in Politics, Ethnic and Religius Tensions Religion in Politics has been used to calculate the political stability index using the principal components analysis method (PCA). The results of the research show that political stability and democracy have a significant positive role in the economic growth.
Economic Growth
Mohammad Sharif Karimi; Marayam Haidarian; Masomeh Dorbash
Abstract
Establishing security is one of the important pillars of economic growth and the most important economic impact of security in the phenomenon of investment and economic growth is observed. The establishment of security in society is influenced by several factors, among which the institutions in the society ...
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Establishing security is one of the important pillars of economic growth and the most important economic impact of security in the phenomenon of investment and economic growth is observed. The establishment of security in society is influenced by several factors, among which the institutions in the society and government are the most important of these factors. In both internal and external conflicts, each of them, in turn, will undermine security and, as a result, will undermine the economic growth of a country. Therefore, in this research, we tried to study the effect of internal and external conflicts on economic growth in Middle East countries during the period 1996-2018. By examining the nature and effect of conflicts on economic growth, first, the effect of external conflict on internal conflict in the form of a panel probe model, then in two separate models of the impact of internal and external disputes on the quality of institutions and economic integration indexes are examined. Finally, in a generalized method of moments system the simultaneous influence of internal and external conflicts, quality of institutions indicators and economic integration on economic growth have been investigated. The results of the model estimation show the positive effects of external conflicts on the internal conflicts and then the negative effects of internal and external conflicts on the quality of institutions and economic integration. In the final model, the increase in domestic and foreign conflicts has led to a decline in Middle East economic growth. Of course, the negative effects of foreign conflicts have been more than internal conflicts in the economic growth model.
Economic Growth
mahnaz hoseinpur; kambiz hojabr kiani; fatemeh zandi; ali dehghani; khalil saeedi
Abstract
In this paper, firstly, the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Iran (1980-2016) and MENA countries (2000-2016) is investigated using VAR and PVAR models. Further, the government expenditure multiplier are calculated and compared comparatively using the impulse response functions ...
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In this paper, firstly, the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Iran (1980-2016) and MENA countries (2000-2016) is investigated using VAR and PVAR models. Further, the government expenditure multiplier are calculated and compared comparatively using the impulse response functions of each model. At the end, the effect of each factor is investigated determining the government expenditure multiplier in separate models for Iran and selected countries of the MENA for a better analysis and a closer investigation of the subject. According to the literature, results indicate that: Firstly, the shock of government expenditure in MENA selected countries and Iran, together, led to a relatively strong increase in economic growth. Secondly, in developing countries such as the countries of MENA region, especially in Iran, government- expenditure multipliers were smaller than one and close to zero. The government expenditure multiplier in MENA selected countries is more than Iran in short-term, but in the long run, the government expenditure mulitiplier, in Iran is larger than MENA selected countries. Thirdly, trade openness, public debt, and savings rate both in MENA and in Iran reduce the government expenditure multiplier, but unemployment and financial development increase the multiplier. Public debt has the most impact on the Iranian government expenditure multiplier and trade openness has the most impact in MENA expenditure multiplier.
Economic Growth
Ahmad Chehreghani; Mansour ZaraNejhad
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of Value Added Tax (VAT) on Iran's economic growth. For this purpose, Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) has been used. Data are derived from the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran in 2011, prepared by the Parliament Research Center in ...
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of Value Added Tax (VAT) on Iran's economic growth. For this purpose, Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) has been used. Data are derived from the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran in 2011, prepared by the Parliament Research Center in 2015, which is the latest SAM of Iran. Policy analysis has been carried out in the form of nine scenarios: the VAT with the rates applied in Iran (3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 9%), and the applicable rates (10%, 15% and 20%). In all scenarios, the VAT rate in agriculture sectore is considered zero. The results indicate that VAT has positive impact on Iran's economic growth.
Economic Growth
Abolqasem Esnaashari Amiri; Asqar Abolhasani Histiani; Mohammad Reza Ranjbar Fallah; Bita Shaygani; seyed ghorban malizadeh kolagar
Abstract
Regarding the importance of the relationship between volume of liquidity and GDP in manufacturing sector policy making, using a time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model and Kalman filter approach, the present research studies the GDP's response to effective variables such as capital, labor force, ...
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Regarding the importance of the relationship between volume of liquidity and GDP in manufacturing sector policy making, using a time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model and Kalman filter approach, the present research studies the GDP's response to effective variables such as capital, labor force, and in particular liquidity volume during the period of 1978-2015. The results of estimating the regression model with time varying parameter and the study of the trend of the coefficients of explanatory variables over time show that these coefficients have not been constant over the period under study and have changed due to exogenous shocks such as revolution, war, oil price shocks, applied economic policies, structural changes, international political stances, and economic sanctions. By comparing the trend of changes in the GDP growth rate with changes in the rate of growth of liquidity, it can be said that the trend of changes in these two variables are not proportionate, showing that policy making in the monetary sector has not been efficient. Therefore, it is suggested that the central bank should have an appropriate operational independence and that the rate of liquidity growth vary proportionately with the rate of GDP growth.
Economic Growth
mohammad ali ehsani; hamid La'l-e-Khezri; saleh taheri
Abstract
The unfavorable state of economic growth and government debt to the banking system are two major challenges for the Iran's economy. Given the importance of these variables in the macroeconomics, the study of the relationship between them using modern econometric methods can provide useful implications ...
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The unfavorable state of economic growth and government debt to the banking system are two major challenges for the Iran's economy. Given the importance of these variables in the macroeconomics, the study of the relationship between them using modern econometric methods can provide useful implications for policymakers. Therefore, the present study, with the application of the threshold vector autoregressive and spectral Analysis approaches during the period 1353-1395 reveals new evidence of the relationship between these two variables. The results show that government debt to the banking system has a dual and nonlinear effect on the economic growth. On the other words, if the ratio of debt to production is less than 18.2%, it has a positive effect on economic growth. Through crossing the estimated threshold, its destructive effect appears on economic growth. The impact of bank debt on economic growth is also non-linear and inverse. In addition, in the short and medium run, there is a causal relationship between these two variables. But, in the long run, the causality relationship from economic growth to government debt.
s
Azad Khanzadi; maryam heidarian
Abstract
In macroeconomics, the Okun's Law and Verdoorn's Law are used as methods for studying the relationship between economic growth and unemployment and employment. The necessity of studying these two laws together, in a threshold econometric model and considering to regional and spatial conditions of variables, ...
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In macroeconomics, the Okun's Law and Verdoorn's Law are used as methods for studying the relationship between economic growth and unemployment and employment. The necessity of studying these two laws together, in a threshold econometric model and considering to regional and spatial conditions of variables, can have more effective results in labor market policies. Therefore, in this study, due to the importance of employment and unemployment issue in Iran, have been investigated economic growth thresholds in the Okun's and Verdoorn's Law, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression and considering to spatial and non-spatial dimensions of variables. The results of model estimation for 30 Iranian provinces of during the period of 2005-2017 show that unemployment response to changes in production growth was higher than employment, this is true not only in non-spatial state, but also in spatial state and calculation of proximity matrix in economic growth. In addition, the results in spatial state than non-spatial state with stronger and faster changes, which is evidence of regional labor markets impact and macroeconomic situation and unbalanced development in each region, which has led to overflow in other areas. Of course, these effects, with crossed of threshold and entering second regime, have led to improvement in the labor market to increase employment and reduce unemployment, but effects of economic growth more have been on reducing unemployment than employment growth.
Economic Growth
Mahboobeh Farahati
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of revenue-neutral change in the tax structure on economic growth in Iran using data for the period of 1361-1395. To this end, an empirical model has been proposed to analyze the effect of substituting different tax items for each other on economic ...
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The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of revenue-neutral change in the tax structure on economic growth in Iran using data for the period of 1361-1395. To this end, an empirical model has been proposed to analyze the effect of substituting different tax items for each other on economic growth in such a way that the total tax revenue remains constant. The results of cointegration analysis based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach show that a revenue-neutral transfer of indirect taxes to income tax or wealth tax increases economic growth in the long run. However, a revenue-neutral transfer of indirect taxes to corporate taxes reduces economic growth in the long run. Also, among direct taxes, a revenue-neutral transfer of corporate taxes to income tax or wealth tax as well as a revenue-neutral transfer of income tax to wealth tax promote economic growth in the long run. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the highest and lowest increase in economic growth correspond to the substitution of wealth tax for corporate taxes and of income tax for indirect taxes, respectively. The results of this study have important policy implications for tax structure reform in Iran's economy.
Energy
ebrahim ghaed; Ali Dehghani; Mohammad Fattahy
Abstract
Abstract: The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of Types the renewable energy production on Iran’s economic growth during the period of 2008-2017. For this analysis, Vector Autoregressive Model, Johansson-Juselius method and Vector Error Correction Model are used. In accordance ...
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Abstract: The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of Types the renewable energy production on Iran’s economic growth during the period of 2008-2017. For this analysis, Vector Autoregressive Model, Johansson-Juselius method and Vector Error Correction Model are used. In accordance with the obtained results, the effect of the variables’ coefficients is coincident based on the theoretical foundations and statistically significant. The results indicate that in the long run, the variables of renewable energy investment by the private sector, the power generation from the renewable energy, and the consumption of renewable energies, which are considered as indicators for renewable energies, have a positive and significant effect on the economic growth. The coefficient of the error correction method indicates that about 0.62 of the short-term imbalance is adjusted in each period to achieve the long-term equilibrium. Further, in the long run, a one percentage increase in the labor force variables, renewable energy investment by the private sector, electricity generation from renewable energy, and the Production of Types renewable energies) Wind, Solar, Hydro and geothermal) leads to 0.87, 1.17, 6.44, 4.29, 2.09, 1.78 and 1.56 percentage increase in the economic growth, respectivel and it became clear that It was found that among renewable energy sources, the effect of wind energy on growth is higher than other energies and we have to prioritize investment in wind energy. Therefore, according to the results of the research, the political recommendation is that, considering the process of the types of renewable energy sources in Iran, since wind energy has the greatest effect on economic growth compared to other energy sources. By investing in this unit, the share of renewable energy use in Iran could be increased Key words: Renewable energy, Economic Growth, Vector Error Correction Model and Johansson-Juselius method JEL: O13, C13, G21, C22
s
hamid zolghadr; Hossein Asgharpur; Mohsen Purebadolahan; Behzad Salmani; Asadollah Farzinvash
Abstract
Banks due to their ownership structure have specific objective in granting credits. Hence, Ownership structure can be impact on economic growth by Influencing banks' lending behavior. Purposes of this study are investigating the role of bank ownership in the impact of bank credit on economic growthwith ...
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Banks due to their ownership structure have specific objective in granting credits. Hence, Ownership structure can be impact on economic growth by Influencing banks' lending behavior. Purposes of this study are investigating the role of bank ownership in the impact of bank credit on economic growthwith considering income level of provinces. This research is divided banks into state and private also divided provinces into two groups of high and low income. Econometric model of this research is estimated using panel data in 31 provinces during of 2006-2015. Descriptive analysis results showed that average of total credits each year, 21 percent by private banks and 79 percent by state-owned banks is paid. The findings of the model estimation indicate that the impact of both types of banks credit on provinces' economic growth was higher in low income levels compared to provinces with high income levels. The results of the tests conducted to measure the difference in the impact of two types of banks in each region indicated that state banks, with a significant difference compared to private banks, had a greater effect on economic growth in lower-income provinces. But the difference in the effectiveness of two types of bank credit on economic growth in provinces with high income level is not significant. Therefore, structure of bank ownership has effective role on the impact of credits on economic growth due to the income level of the regions.
Economic Growth
Behzad Maleki Hassanvand; Mohammad Jafari; Shahram Fatahi; Hadi Ghafari
Abstract
The aim of this paper is examining the simultaneous impact of good governance and government spending on economic growth in MENA countries. To estimate model, we've used GMM method during 2002-2016. The results show that good governance (weighted average of six indexes) and government spending ...
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The aim of this paper is examining the simultaneous impact of good governance and government spending on economic growth in MENA countries. To estimate model, we've used GMM method during 2002-2016. The results show that good governance (weighted average of six indexes) and government spending have positive and significant effect on economic growth. GDP last period and trade openness variable have positive and significant effect on economic growth. Inflation variable has negative and significant effect and private investment variable has positive and insignificant effect on economic growth. The effect of both economic growth and government spending is positive and significant. Good governance index resulted from combination of existing six indexes by Principle Components Model, has been estimated in another model and it indicates positive relationship with more effect on economic growth.
Economic Growth
Mohammad Reza Kohansal; Hamideh Hamidehpour
Abstract
In most previous studies concerning investigation of factors affecting economic growth, spatial dependencies have been ignored which would result in biased and inconsistent estimates. At first, economic growth of a country is influenced by its own geographical, internal conditions and capabilities then ...
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In most previous studies concerning investigation of factors affecting economic growth, spatial dependencies have been ignored which would result in biased and inconsistent estimates. At first, economic growth of a country is influenced by its own geographical, internal conditions and capabilities then affected by the spillover effects of neighboring countries and its trading partners, which these influences by others on growth of a country are called spatial effects and spatial dependencies. Therefore, this study examines the factors affecting economic growth by using the spatial dynamic panel method in both developed countries (members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and developing countries (members of the Economic Cooperation Organization) during the 2001-2015 period. The innovation of current research is to use dynamic matrix derived from bilateral trade of countries, which varies over time. By estimating spatial growth model, positive spillover effects from one country to its trading partners have been confirmed in both developed and developing countries. By comparing the results, only the physical capital factor has contributed to improving the growth of developing countries, while in developed countries, in addition to physical capital, two factors including human capital and trade have provided further growth. In order to capture positive effects of trade on advancing economic growth of ECO countries, it has been suggested to consider political and institutional changes in economic development programs.
s
Ali Falahati; Maryam Heidarian
Abstract
In an economy system, government activities play a fundamental role in economic growth and development of countries, but increase these activities have a positive effect on economic growth until a certain threshold and from this threshold excessive increase in government activities not only have no positive ...
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In an economy system, government activities play a fundamental role in economic growth and development of countries, but increase these activities have a positive effect on economic growth until a certain threshold and from this threshold excessive increase in government activities not only have no positive effect on economic growth, but these activities are main barrier to growth. Including of these activities, can mention the government''s capital expenditures and public debt. In this study, is tried to study the threshold effects and non-linear government investment and public debt on GDP in two separate models during of 2000-2016 using of provincial data and Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model (PSTR). The results of linearity test show that there is a nonlinear relationship between variables. Also, the inclusion of a transfer function with a threshold parameter which is representing a two-regime model, is sufficient to determine the nonlinear relationship between variables. The results show that public debt and investment in first regime have a positive effect on GDP, but by crossing of threshold and entering to second regime, severity of this effect will be increased and negative. It seems, this result is due to the crowed-out effect on private sector and increase in public debt due to rising government spending and confirms Laffer curve hypothesis.
Energy
Mohammad hassan ghazvinian; KAMBIZ HOZHABR KIANI; Ali Dehghani; Fatemeh Zandi; Khalil Saeedi
Abstract
Planning and policy making in the field of economic growth as one of the major macroeconomic goals requires special attention to the energy sector, the environment and its relation to production. Hence, in this paper, the effects of energy consumption shocks on carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth ...
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Planning and policy making in the field of economic growth as one of the major macroeconomic goals requires special attention to the energy sector, the environment and its relation to production. Hence, in this paper, the effects of energy consumption shocks on carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in selected countries of the MENA have been studied using the PVAR approach as well as Iran using the VAR method, and the results indicate that the energy shocks would initially lead to a relatively high increase and then a decrease in per capita GDP in the selected countries. The energy shock also initially increased carbon dioxide emissions and subsequently reduced pollution in subsequent periods and will move to the balance in long-term; also, in the Iranian economy, a shock to energy consumption first begans to sharply increase in economic growth after four periods, and eventually returns to a long-term equilibrium. Eventually, with a shock in total energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions are mildly increased and then begin to decrease from the third period. Total energy consumption, foreign direct investment, labor force, and capital stock have a direct and significant relationship with economic growth, but carbon dioxide emissions have a significant negative relationship in Iran's economy.
Economic Growth
farhad ghalambaz; Ali Souri; Ghahraman Abdoli; Mohsen Ebrahimi
Abstract
Investigation of factors that affect economic growth has been always attractive. Foreign direct investment is one of the variables that have potential effects on growth. This study carried out to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. We consider the role of natural resources ...
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Investigation of factors that affect economic growth has been always attractive. Foreign direct investment is one of the variables that have potential effects on growth. This study carried out to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. We consider the role of natural resources using panel threshold regression model for 1996 to 2015 period and also emphasis on relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Iran by Markov Switching Approach for 1976-2015. Panel threshold regression model formed based on Hansen’s (1999) suggested model then that estimated by Wang’s (2015) proposed method for fixed effect models. Results of threshold regression model showed that natural resources, domestic capital formation, population growth rate and governance indicator has statistically significant effect on economic growth. Threshold level for natural resources is 28.58 percentages. Foreign direct investment variable has different effect on economic growth in regimes. In first regime foreign direct investment increase economic growth but in second regime, that natural resources is more than threshold level, it decrease growth rate. Results of tow regimes Auto-Regressive Markov Switching model for Iran showed that foreign direct investment in recession regime is insignificant but this variable in boom regime has statistically significant effect and this relationship is negative.
OPEC
Mohammad Sokhanvar
Abstract
In this paper, government expenditure productivity has been studied in selected countries that are member in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and optimum threshold government size of these countries is determined. For this reason, endogenous Barrow growth model is used that practically ...
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In this paper, government expenditure productivity has been studied in selected countries that are member in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and optimum threshold government size of these countries is determined. For this reason, endogenous Barrow growth model is used that practically applied by Karras. Panel data threshold approach is applied. The reason for selecting these countries for study is that these countries have the same government financial structure such that a high share of budget of these countries depend on the oil revenue. According to available data, eight countries are selected and the period under study is from 2000 to 2014. Estimation findings show that optimum threshold government size of these countries have been estimated 13/58. In addition, findings indicate that before the threshold government size, the productivity of government size has been positive and approximately 0/72 and after the threshold government size, the productivity of government size has been negative and approximately -0/23.
Economic Growth
Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi; Hadi Ghaffari; Mehdi Jaloli
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 13-28
Abstract
The current study, using the VAR model, tries to explore the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth in Iran during the 1981-2011 periods using the principle components analysis. In this study, using the principle components analysis (PCA), an indicator of economic instability ...
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The current study, using the VAR model, tries to explore the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth in Iran during the 1981-2011 periods using the principle components analysis. In this study, using the principle components analysis (PCA), an indicator of economic instability was built and then the impact of this indicator on economic growth of Iran was examined. The findings show that Only the importance of labor in the Agricultural sector but in other sectors more than other variables, physical capital is the more important in explaining economic growth. In all areas of macroeconomics, variable economic instability negative impact on economic growth in the sector. Four parts macroeconomic indicator of economic instability in the analysis of variance, respectively, in the fields of Industry and Minerals, Services, Agriculture and Oil and Gas exploration is more important.
Economic Growth
Mehdi Khodaei; Mohammad Jafari; Shahram Fattahi
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 79-92
Abstract
Macro-economic relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth has long been considered by economists. In this study to evaluate the more accurate effect of the government's fiscal policy in the economy, using quarterly data for the years 1988 to 2016, a factor-augmented vector autoregressive ...
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Macro-economic relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth has long been considered by economists. In this study to evaluate the more accurate effect of the government's fiscal policy in the economy, using quarterly data for the years 1988 to 2016, a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with time varying parameter model (TVP) in Iran's economy has been modeling. The variables of GDP growth, investment growth, inflation, exchange rates, the growth of private consumption expenditure and latent variable of government fiscal policies are used in model. Based on results the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in the whole period is positive and investment increased the rate of economic growth. Also the additive positive effects of fiscal policy on the unofficial exchange rate has increased over time. In addition, the effect of fiscal policy on inflation is positive, so that the additive effect in economic prosperity period is more. Finally, the effect of fiscal policy on private sector spending is negative. Results of this study show changes in relationships between variables over time and also indicate that economic conditions of the country affects the impacts of independent variables.
Economic Growth
Siab Mamipour; Atefeh Rezaei
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 107-122
Abstract
The inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate is known as Okun’s law in the economic literature. According to the importance of Okun's law on economic policy, investigating the relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth is very important at provincial level. ...
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The inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate is known as Okun’s law in the economic literature. According to the importance of Okun's law on economic policy, investigating the relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth is very important at provincial level. Also, with regard to labor mobility between provinces based on economic conditions, spatial and spillover effects are essential in regional studies; therefore, the main objectives of this paper are to investigate Okun's law in Iran's provinces with spatial econometric approach and whether Okun’s law can be used as a rule of thumb for surveying the labor market response to changes in regional economic growth, in Iran's provinces. A panel data set for 30 provinces during period of 2005 to 2013. The results show that unemployment rates and economic growth of provinces have spatial dependence and labor market performance is influenced by macroeconomic situation and its features the economic situation in neighboring provinces. Hence, in this study spatial panel is employed to investigate Okun’s law. The results of spatial panel (SAC) approve accuracy of Okun's law in Iran's provinces; and the development of regional labor market is not limited to the provincial borders and spillovers to other provinces.
توسعه مالی
Hamidreza Horri; seyed jalal; seyed jalla; Simin Sadat Mirhashemi
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 83-100
Abstract
The level of GDP and its growth rate are the most important performance indices in macroeconomics. Therefore, investigation of the effective factors on economic growth is especially significant and one of the most important issues in the field of macroeconomics. The review of literature related to economic ...
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The level of GDP and its growth rate are the most important performance indices in macroeconomics. Therefore, investigation of the effective factors on economic growth is especially significant and one of the most important issues in the field of macroeconomics. The review of literature related to economic growth, showed that granularity in banking is one of the effective factors on economic growth. This paper has studied the simultaneous effects of trade openness and granularity in banking on Iran’s economic growth. Generalized Method of Moments has been used to test the hypotheses. The data has been used in this research is Iran macroeconomics data and data related to Iran Banking network in the years 2001-2012. As expected, The results show that bank granular residual variable and simultaneous effect variable of trade openness and bank granular residual have a negative and significant effect on Iran’s economic growth.
Economic Growth
Teymour Rahmani; sima Motamedi
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 117-132
Abstract
The relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth is an issue that has always been of importance for economists. It is believed that foreign direct investment (FDI) is necessary to promote economic growth and capital formation in every country, particularly in the developing countries. ...
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The relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth is an issue that has always been of importance for economists. It is believed that foreign direct investment (FDI) is necessary to promote economic growth and capital formation in every country, particularly in the developing countries. Since it has been discussed that FDI promotes economic growth not only by increasing the volume of financial funds and relaxing the constraint on investment financed by domestic savings but also by technology and management skills transfer from advanced economies to developing economies in the context of endogenous growth models, it is necessary to examine the effect of FDI on economic growth via the above mentioned channels. In this study, we examine the effects of FDI on capital formation, labor productivity and economic growth. We try to test the hypothesis that FDI helps economic growth in developing countries not only via capital formation but also via the increase in productivity. To test this hypothesis, we use a panel data approach in a simultaneous equations system including three equations and three groups consisting of 111 developing countries over the time period 1995-2013. Our method of estimation is 2SLS. Our results show that in the sample we have examined, productivity has a higher effect on economic growth than capital formation. Therefore, the hypothesis that “FDI, by increasing productivity, has a positive effect on economic growth” is not rejected.
Economic Growth
Mohammad Ali Ehsani; Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 133-145
Abstract
Post Keynesian growth model considers the use of production factors as a function of production and introduces demand as the main determinant of economic growth. Accordingly, Thirlwall (1979) presented a model suggesting that demand is restrained by the balance of payments deficit and turns into substantial ...
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Post Keynesian growth model considers the use of production factors as a function of production and introduces demand as the main determinant of economic growth. Accordingly, Thirlwall (1979) presented a model suggesting that demand is restrained by the balance of payments deficit and turns into substantial limitations to achieve higher economic growth rate owing to balance of payments deficit. This model is known as Thirlwall law or “balance of payments constrained growth model”. In this model the maximum rate of economic growth consistent with the balance-of-payments equilibrium is figured out using income elasticity of import and export. Identifying the barriers to achieving the target growth rate has been turned into one of the most controversial economic issues because of the challenges of low economic growth in Iran. Thus this study is going to provide an answer to the question that, based on Thirlwall law, Whether the balance of payments deems obstacles to the target growth rates of development programs for the Iran’s economy or not? To accomplish this, first the long run cointegration relationship of import and export demand functions was approved by autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). Then, regarding the importance of the elasticities of above functions on the results of the study and removing the structural instability of the model coefficients, time–varying parameter (TVP) and Kalman – filter were used to estimate the elasticities. Finally the validity of Thirlwall law was not confirmed during 1984-2013 applying Wald Test. Therefore, it can be claimed that aggregate demand has not restricted the economic growth through the balance of payments. Low income elasticity of import, combination of imports, restrictions on imports and dependence of foreign trade on oil revenues are the most important reasons for the results.
