Seyed Jalal Alavi; Mohammad Mahdi lotfi heravi; Marzieh Asaadi
Abstract
One of the most important issues in macroeconomic management is the analysis of factors affecting economic growth. This research has measured the effect of financial development on Iran's economic growth and test Patrick's hypothesis in the period of 1357-1398. Main research questions include; 1) What ...
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One of the most important issues in macroeconomic management is the analysis of factors affecting economic growth. This research has measured the effect of financial development on Iran's economic growth and test Patrick's hypothesis in the period of 1357-1398. Main research questions include; 1) What variables are effective in Iran's financial development index, together with their weighting factor, and does financial development in Iran bank-oriented or stock market-oriented? 2) What is the short-term and long-term effect of the financial development index on Iran's economic growth and the speed of adjustment to the long-term relationship? 3) Is the causal relationship between Iran's financial development and economic growth demand-oriented or supply-oriented? Firstly, comprehensive financial development index was created by using four variables, including the volume of liquidity, bank credits allocated to the private sector, the value of capital market transactions, and the volume of bank deposits using the Factor Analysis Method. Then the short-term and long-term relationship was calculated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, followed by employing the Granger Causality Test to examine Patrick's hypothesis for the cause-and-effect relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Iran. Finally, using the Error Correction Model, the speed of adjustment from the short-run equilibrium to the long-run equilibrium state was evaluated. The results show that the financial development index has a positive relationship with economic growth in the short and long term. Patrick's hypothesis test also confirms only the demand-driven management view which confirms causality from economic growth to financial development.
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Ahmad Ali Asadpour
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of uncertainty in inflation, bank finance, bank interest rates, liquidity, stock prices, price index and GDP on housing prices in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, seasonal data has been used during the period 1991 to 2013. EGARCH pattern (1,1) ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of uncertainty in inflation, bank finance, bank interest rates, liquidity, stock prices, price index and GDP on housing prices in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, seasonal data has been used during the period 1991 to 2013. EGARCH pattern (1,1) as an estimation of AR (4) residues for inflation is used as a substitute for inflation uncertainty measurement, and a short-term model and long-term relationships between research variables have been set. The results of short-term model and long-run pattern show that uncertainty regarding inflation, interest rate, liquidity, GDP and national income have a positive and significant effect on housing prices. Indeed, stock prices and housing finance have a negative and significant effect on housing prices. It is noteworthy to state that there are different sensitivities to housing prices in most variables, such as household income per capita, liquidity, and stock price index in the long term and short-term; so that, according to the theory, the elasticity of house prices relative to household income per capita, the volume of money and the stock price index in the long run is more than short-term. The results of the estimation of the error correction model indicate that in each period, about one fourth of the imbalance of dependent variable of its long-term equilibrium values over a period is moderated and eliminated in the subsequent period. In other words, if any shock or inequilibrium occurs in housing prices, it will return to equilibrium after four periods.
International Commerce
Farzaneh Ahmadian Yazdi; Mostafa Salimifar; Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri
Volume 5, Issue 20 , August 2015, , Pages 30-11
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of trade liberalization and economic growth on non-oil bilateral trade balance of Iran and China over the period 1981-2012. For checking the stationarity of the variables and validity of the obtained results, the Augmented Dicky-Fuller test (ADF) and Perrone structural ...
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This paper investigates the effects of trade liberalization and economic growth on non-oil bilateral trade balance of Iran and China over the period 1981-2012. For checking the stationarity of the variables and validity of the obtained results, the Augmented Dicky-Fuller test (ADF) and Perrone structural break test is employed respectively. To estimate the coefficients of the variables, ARDL model has been used. Using the framework of Oskooee and Brooks model, the findings of this paper show that increasing trade liberalization in short run and long run causes trade deficit for Iran. It means that from the view of demand side economists, higher trade liberalization deteriorates the trade balance of the country. Also, based on the obtained results, economic growth in both short run and long run has negative effect on non-oil bilateral trade balance of Iran and China. In addition, the real exchange rate has positive effect on the trade balance of Iran. It means that depreciation of national currency improves trade balance of Iran.
ARDL
alireza erfani; Abedin Hosseini; hamid maleki
Volume 5, Issue 20 , August 2015, , Pages 61-45
Abstract
The main goal of this study is survey and testing effects of asymmetric exchange rate fluctuations (in terms of positive and negative momentum) on private sector investment in Iran. At first, for exchange rate shocks, we used Hodrick-Prescott filter and positive and negative predicted and non-predicted ...
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The main goal of this study is survey and testing effects of asymmetric exchange rate fluctuations (in terms of positive and negative momentum) on private sector investment in Iran. At first, for exchange rate shocks, we used Hodrick-Prescott filter and positive and negative predicted and non-predicted shocks have been obtained. In addition, in specification of private sector investment equation, the effect of other variables such as gross domestic product (without oil) and public investment has been considered. For this purpose, using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM), long run and short run relationship between private sector investment and factors affecting it during the years 1978 to 2010 have been evaluated. the results show that there is an asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on private sector investment but exchange rate positive shocks are more effective than negative shocks.
Mahdi Fadaee; Shayesteh Kazemi
Volume 3, Issue 9 , April 2013, , Pages 84-71
Abstract
One of the ways to create jobs is increasing the capacities of jobs through new investments. The aim of this research is to analyze the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on job creation in Iran. Thus, 1970-2010 statistical data have been used to survey the relationship between foreign ...
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One of the ways to create jobs is increasing the capacities of jobs through new investments. The aim of this research is to analyze the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on job creation in Iran. Thus, 1970-2010 statistical data have been used to survey the relationship between foreign direct investment and employment in a theoretical and experimental frame. By specifying an econometric model, the relations between the variables have been estimated by ARDL model. The results of research show that, foreign direct investment directly and meaningfully influences the economic growth to the extent that it improves the process of job creation opportunities in short run (0.1286) and long run (0.1261). Error correction coefficient (ECM) obtained in this model shows that in each period 10/2 percent of inequelibrium will justify and close to the long run imbalances. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ structural stability tests show that the estimated coefficients are stable over the period.
