Mostafa Omidali; Mohammad Hassan Fotros; aliakbar gholizadeh
Abstract
Factors such as expectations, lack of financial flexibility, uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and other economic and non-economic indicators are influential in creating business cycles, none of which alone creates business cycles. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship ...
Read More
Factors such as expectations, lack of financial flexibility, uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and other economic and non-economic indicators are influential in creating business cycles, none of which alone creates business cycles. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic, financial, political and international risks with the economic business cycles of Iran during the period 2001-2009. To achieve this goal, the long-run trend will be separated from the cyclical GDP trend using the Hadrick-Prescott filter, and the data will be analyzed using the Structural Vector Distribution (SVAR) model. According to the results, the average of one business cycle in the Iranian economy is equal to 10 seasons, which are equal to 5.45 and 5 seasons for the recession and boom period, respectively. Economic risk of -0.354 percentage has immediate effects on the business cycles of the Iranian economy, which for financial risk, international risk and political risk, the figures show -0.315, -0.0031 and 0.0048 percentage, respectively. According to the Granger causality test, the two variables of economic risk and financial risk are the cause of business cycles in the Iranian economy, while political and international risks are not the cause of business cycles. Economic risks in the first period with an impact of about 6% have the most explanatory effect in creating business cycles of GDP, after which financial risk has the greatest impact on business cycles, on the other hand, political risks among the studied risks have the least impact on cycles.
Fariba Mehri Telyabi; Mohammad Hassan Fotros; Mohammad Mowlaei; Seyed Ehsan Hosseinidoust
Abstract
Achievement to higher levels of economic welfare has always been one of the strategic purpose of developing countries. Despite of the large number of studies done in the field of cognition factors affecting economic welfare indicators there is still no general agreement on the main factors influencing. ...
Read More
Achievement to higher levels of economic welfare has always been one of the strategic purpose of developing countries. Despite of the large number of studies done in the field of cognition factors affecting economic welfare indicators there is still no general agreement on the main factors influencing. This research shows that a large part of cause is ignoring the technology gap between developing and developed countries. Because of welfare in developing countries is strongly influenced by technology imports from developed countries. The present study investigates the effect of foreign R&D spillovers on the welfare of sanctioned countries during the period 2000 to 2016 using the econometric method of data panel estimation. TheF results show that the interaction effect of foreign R&D spillovers on human capital has a positive and significant effect on Sen’s Social Welfare Index and a 1% increase in the interaction of foreign R&D spillovers on human capital leads to a 10% increase in Sen’s Social Welfare Index. Also, government expenditures, per capita income and inflation have a positive and significant effect on Sen’s Social Welfare Index, and each percent increase in these variables leads to 9, 94 and 19 percent increase in Sen’s Social Welfare Index, respectively. The dummy variable of sanction has a negative relationship with the Sen’s Social Welfare Index, but its coefficient is not significant.
Yaghob Fatemi Zardan; Mohammad Hassan Fotros; Hamid Sepehrdost; Mohsen Khezri
Abstract
One of the most important topics in economics is the study of utility and social welfare. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to derive the utility function and social welfare function of the provinces of Iran during 1380-1396. For this purpose, the regional utility function is used to extract the ...
Read More
One of the most important topics in economics is the study of utility and social welfare. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to derive the utility function and social welfare function of the provinces of Iran during 1380-1396. For this purpose, the regional utility function is used to extract the utility of the provinces. To calculate these functions, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel data(pmg/ARDL) was used in Eviews 9 and Excel software. Then, the Bergson-Samuelson welfare function, which is computed as a sum of utility, was used to calculate the social welfare function. Finally, beta convergence method was used to investigate welfare convergence between provinces of the country. The results of the extraction of utility and social welfare function show that social welfare has been in steady growth in the period 1380-1386. After a slight decline in 1387, it increases again. In 1392, this growth stops and increases again in 1394 and 1395. This increase continues until 1394 and declines during the years of 1395 and 1396. Also, the results of beta convergence show that the provinces such as Chaharmahal-e-Bakhtiari, Qazvin, Lorestan and Kurdistan have the highest convergence rate, considering the Solow-Swan hypothesis, they are less welfare than other provinces and provinces such as Tehran, Isfahan, Hamedan and Markazi, which have lower convergence rates, have higher levels of welfare. While, the convergence rate for the country is -0.1718. This means that the entire provinces, on average, are moving toward an average welfare of 17.18% annually. Also, since the beta convergence coefficient for provinces and countries is between zero and negative one, the existence of convergence in provinces and countries is confirmed.
GDP
Esmaeil Torkamani; Mohammad Hassan Fotros
Abstract
The use of natural resource revenues for achievement of development has been a challenging issue for resource abound countries. These a challenging stem from the fact that incomes from natural resources are non-durable, unpredictable and uncertain. Many countries have pursued approaches and tools for ...
Read More
The use of natural resource revenues for achievement of development has been a challenging issue for resource abound countries. These a challenging stem from the fact that incomes from natural resources are non-durable, unpredictable and uncertain. Many countries have pursued approaches and tools for managing these revenues to prevent economic fluctuations. The international organizations and economic experts propose a diversification into resource revenues in the form of different approaches for public investment. The present study evaluates the policy of increasing public investment in Iran in the form of three gradual, aggressive and conservative approaches for the period of 1978-2015 using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method. The results showed that after an oil revenue shock, the status of economic variables in the gradual increase approach is better than the other two approaches. In a gradual approach, in addition to increasing GDP and private and public consumption, public debt is also declining
Mena Countries Group
Mohammad Hassan Fotros; Razie Sahraee; Masume Yavari
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 55-66
Abstract
Food security is a main component of physical, mental and psychological health of any society and is a criterion for human development. Food security and access to safe and adequate food is of the main pillars of economic growth and development; so it is of the main goals of every country. War and insecurity ...
Read More
Food security is a main component of physical, mental and psychological health of any society and is a criterion for human development. Food security and access to safe and adequate food is of the main pillars of economic growth and development; so it is of the main goals of every country. War and insecurity damage food security. War is the increased major cause of poverty, unemployment and food insecurity. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of war on food security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in the period 1990-2014. In order to estimate the model for investigating the issue, the unbalanced panel data method was used. Results showed that war has the negative and significant impact on food security. Gross domestic product per capita, the size of the rural population, the ratio of arable land surface to total land surface and the use of agricultural machinery per hectare variables had positive and significant impact, and the size of the total population had negative and significant impact on food security. Thus, any attempt to reduce conflict means to improve food security and growth and development.
s
mohammad hasan fotros; sudeh ghodsi
Volume 7, Issue 27 , July 2017, , Pages 45-64
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to measure multidimensional poverty index (MPI) based on Alkire and Foster method and analyzing incidence and intensity of poverty in Iran in three dimensions for the period of 1989-2014. In this study, households’ income-expenditure raw data published by the ...
Read More
The main objective of this paper is to measure multidimensional poverty index (MPI) based on Alkire and Foster method and analyzing incidence and intensity of poverty in Iran in three dimensions for the period of 1989-2014. In this study, households’ income-expenditure raw data published by the Statistical Center of Iran was used. The results show that the incidence and intensity and MPI are decreased in this period of study. The most incidence and intensity of poverty belongs to 1989. Also, the poverty incidence of rural areas is more than in urban areas in 1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, and 2014, but intensity of poverty in rural areas is more than urban areas in all years. Finally, the development plans have decreased MPI during all the period of 1989-2014.
Mohammad Hasan Fotros; Esmaeil Torkamani
Volume 2, Issue 7 , September 2012, , Pages 50-33
Abstract
This paper investigates the effect of modified human development on sustainability of economic growth for the period of 1980 to 2008 in developed and developing countries by using a system of simultaneous equations. Results of the estimations using a 3SLS method indicate that modified ...
Read More
This paper investigates the effect of modified human development on sustainability of economic growth for the period of 1980 to 2008 in developed and developing countries by using a system of simultaneous equations. Results of the estimations using a 3SLS method indicate that modified human development index has a positive effect on economic growth in the three groups of countries: the coefficient for high per capita income countries is 12.4; in countries with average per capita income it is 5.2; and it is 5.8 for countries with low per capita income. In other words, the effect of modified human development index on economic growth in developed countries is tow times higher than of developing countries. For the non-sustainability, results indicate that there is an inverse N relationship between non-sustainability and modified human development index in high per capita income countries; but for countries with average and low per capita income, there is a simple N shape relationship.
