Document Type : Quarterly Journal

Authors

• Amir Mansoor Tehranchian
• Ahmad Jafari Samimi
• Roozbeh Balounejad Nouri

Abstract

This study is devoted to test the inflation persistence in Iran. For this purpose, respect to the time series data on inflation in Iran (1972 - 2011), Autoregressive Fraction- ally Integrated Moving Average model is used. The results of this study show that based on methods of maximum likelihood and modified maximum likelihood degrees of differencing, respectively, are d₁=0.482 and d₂=0.483. Therefore, based on these findings, the inflation persistence hypothesis is not rejected in Iran. Gradual vanishing of inflation shocks, possibility of inflation is structural and regard to monetary discipline is the most important recommendations of this study. 

Keywords

• Inflation Persistence
• ARFIMA
• Inflation Rate
• Iran Economy