بازار سرمایه
Jahangir Fatehi; Amad Naghiloo; mohammad dalmanpour; Ashkan rahimzadeh
Abstract
In this paper, the effects of the decline in global oil prices on the macro - economic variables of Iran have been analyzed by designing a dynamic global economic balance model with respect to banking sector and credit risk of bul lion. based on the results of modeling for the iranian economy, the decrease ...
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In this paper, the effects of the decline in global oil prices on the macro - economic variables of Iran have been analyzed by designing a dynamic global economic balance model with respect to banking sector and credit risk of bul lion. based on the results of modeling for the iranian economy, the decrease in oil prices increases the exchange rate and reduces the demand for imported goods, which in the short term, through substitution effect, boosts domestic production and employment of unemployed people on a temporary basis. However, the drop in oil production and the monetary base constraint and the reduction in lending reduce total production in the subsequent period. on the other hand, inflation has increased temporarily, first because of increased demand for domestic production and then it has decreased because of the recession in the economy. the ability of firms to repay the received facilities is reduced and debt default is increased by reducing production followed by decreasing revenue. This would reduce the profitability of banks, which would limit the supply of credit more severely and weaken production and employment more severely. This cycle, combined with falling tax revenues, is pushing the economy into a sustained recession. Accordingly, dependence on oil and credit risk exacerbate the vulnerability of the economy. based on the results, it is suggested to increase economic resilience by adding to income sources, strengthening of waste sectors, and improving bank risk management.
بازار سرمایه
sara marashi aliabadi
Abstract
Since the beginning of economics, the causes of business cycles have been one of the most important subjects. Recognizing the mentioned causes, allows economic policy makers to adopt appropriate policies in order to reduce the negative consequences of business cycles. According to the economic literature, ...
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Since the beginning of economics, the causes of business cycles have been one of the most important subjects. Recognizing the mentioned causes, allows economic policy makers to adopt appropriate policies in order to reduce the negative consequences of business cycles. According to the economic literature, stock market changes, is one of the causes of business cycles and, affects the business cycles through four channels: wealth effect on consumption channel, investment channel, balance sheet effect channel and confidence effect channel. Considering the importance of the topic, in this article, was investigated the effect of stock market variables on business cycles, including the stock index growth and its fluctuations, using the nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive model and the Iran’s annual data during the period 1995-2023. The results showed that by choosing the stock price index growth as the transition variable, there are two regimes: the stock market recession periods and the stock market boom period. In the first regime, the growth of the stock index and the increase in its volatility increase the economic growth. While during the expansion period, the growth of the stock index increases the economic growth and the increase of the market fluctuations causes the decrease of the economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the effect of stock market variables on business cycles when adopting economic policies.
بازار سرمایه
Mohammad Azam Rajabian; Ahmad Sabahi; Mohammad Reza Lotfalipour; Mahdi Behnameh
Abstract
Sustainability of macroeconomics is one of the most important economic issues of the country in recent years. Stable economies are more resilient and less agitated while facing destructive shocks. In this paper, the impact of macroeconomic sustainability indices on the total price index of Tehran Stock ...
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Sustainability of macroeconomics is one of the most important economic issues of the country in recent years. Stable economies are more resilient and less agitated while facing destructive shocks. In this paper, the impact of macroeconomic sustainability indices on the total price index of Tehran Stock Exchange (TEPIX) during the period of 2000-2016was investigated. The used methodology is Bayesian Vector Auto Regressive (BVAR) model. All Bayesian models consist of three basic components of the prior density function, the function of the righting reflex and the function of the posterior density, and various results can be obtained depending on which type of function is used in the model. The macroeconomic sustainability indicators include: the ratio of budget deficit to GDP, the misery indicator, and the ratio of the trade deficit to GDP. Finally, using the instantaneous response function, the impacts of macroeconomic sustainability indicators on the total stock price index is estimated.The results show that the budget deficit of the government has a positive effect on the total stock price index. This positive effect has been declining after three periods and loses its effect after 8 periods. The impact of misery indicator on the total stock price index is also positive which its effect decreases and vanishes after the second and eighth periods, respectively. The trade balance impact has a negligible initial effect on the total stock price index, which has been declining after the third period despite of the first increase until the second period.
بازار سرمایه
Mahboubeh Jafari
Abstract
Using Markov Switching model, this paper studies the nonlinear effect of oil price volatility on investment in Iran as an oil-rich country for the period 1984:1-2015:4. More specifically, it examines whether the oil price volatility has asymmetric effect on investment. To approach this goal, volatility ...
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Using Markov Switching model, this paper studies the nonlinear effect of oil price volatility on investment in Iran as an oil-rich country for the period 1984:1-2015:4. More specifically, it examines whether the oil price volatility has asymmetric effect on investment. To approach this goal, volatility of OPEC oil price is estimated by Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model.The results of Markov-switching model with FTP approach indicate that the effects of oil shocks on investment behavior are separable into two regimes. In other words, the impacts of oil shocks on investment in Iran economy over the booms and recessions are asymmetric. Moreover, our finding shows sanctions imposed by the US against Iran affect investment behavior negatively. We also find that 2008 financial crisis doesn’t affect investment decision. Furthermore, we find out that an improvement in the institutional quality enhances the investment demand. Our findings might have important policy implications for government in Iran. It also provide essential information for companies.
