Economic Growth
saeed karimi potanlar; ahmad jafari samimi; hamid Hamid La'l-e-Khezri
Abstract
The aim of this article is to analyzing the effect of shocks of fiscal consolidation policy on the macroeconomic variables of Iran. In this regard by using Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) method the effect of shocks on government revenues and expenditures on important macroeconomic variables ...
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The aim of this article is to analyzing the effect of shocks of fiscal consolidation policy on the macroeconomic variables of Iran. In this regard by using Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) method the effect of shocks on government revenues and expenditures on important macroeconomic variables including total real GDP growth, inflation, private consumption growth and investment growth over the period 1984:1 -2015:4 is investigated. The results of research models show that the effect of fiscal consolidation policy on the macroeconomic variables are different, and it is difficult to provide a same policy tool to effect all variables. Thus with emphasis on real GDP growth which is a major factor that affects other macroeconomic variables, it can be noted that in short term which consists of 4 seasons, reducing public expenditures and increasing government revenues lead to a reduction in production in response to a negative reaction to investment and private consumption and inflation will decrease. Therefore in the short term the suitable policy for fiscal consolidation is a combination of expenditure cut and income rising and in particular, the policy of reducing current expenditure and increasing import taxes. In the medium and long term, respectively consist of 8 and 16 seasons, real GDP growth responses positively to the expenditures cut policy, decline in current expenditures and social public expenditures is introduced as an instrument of fiscal consolidation policy.
Economic Growth
farhad ghalambaz; Ali Souri; Ghahraman Abdoli; Mohsen Ebrahimi
Abstract
Investigation of factors that affect economic growth has been always attractive. Foreign direct investment is one of the variables that have potential effects on growth. This study carried out to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. We consider the role of natural resources ...
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Investigation of factors that affect economic growth has been always attractive. Foreign direct investment is one of the variables that have potential effects on growth. This study carried out to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. We consider the role of natural resources using panel threshold regression model for 1996 to 2015 period and also emphasis on relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Iran by Markov Switching Approach for 1976-2015. Panel threshold regression model formed based on Hansen’s (1999) suggested model then that estimated by Wang’s (2015) proposed method for fixed effect models. Results of threshold regression model showed that natural resources, domestic capital formation, population growth rate and governance indicator has statistically significant effect on economic growth. Threshold level for natural resources is 28.58 percentages. Foreign direct investment variable has different effect on economic growth in regimes. In first regime foreign direct investment increase economic growth but in second regime, that natural resources is more than threshold level, it decrease growth rate. Results of tow regimes Auto-Regressive Markov Switching model for Iran showed that foreign direct investment in recession regime is insignificant but this variable in boom regime has statistically significant effect and this relationship is negative.
Economic Growth
Seyyed Hossein Mir Jalili; Amin Mohseni Cheraghlou; omid safari
Abstract
Inclusive growth creates equal opportunities for those who contribute to economic growth, so that the whole people could contribute to economic growth and benefit from it. In this research, we applied Anand et al. integrated method and social mobility index to measure inclusive growth. The integrated ...
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Inclusive growth creates equal opportunities for those who contribute to economic growth, so that the whole people could contribute to economic growth and benefit from it. In this research, we applied Anand et al. integrated method and social mobility index to measure inclusive growth. The integrated method allows us to identify the determinants of growth and prioritize the specific constraints of each country in generating inclusive growth. We utilized unbalanced panel data method for the period 1995-2015. The results indicate that GDP growth is the most important determinants of inclusive growth in the Islamic countries. Inflation control, human capital improvement, investment, government consumption and trade openness, positively affect inclusive growth in Islamic countries. However, the ratio of bank credits to GDP and foreign direct investment did not have a positive effect on the growth of Islamic countries.
Economic Growth
Fatemeh Bazazan; Sahar Zare Joneghani; Solmaz Safari
Abstract
Economic growth is considered as one of the most important goals of the economy and has an undeniable effect on improving the welfare of the community. Knowing the factors affecting economic growth has always been an issue for economists. Several factors such as promoting labor force productivity, capital ...
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Economic growth is considered as one of the most important goals of the economy and has an undeniable effect on improving the welfare of the community. Knowing the factors affecting economic growth has always been an issue for economists. Several factors such as promoting labor force productivity, capital accumulation, government's expenditures, technological progress, as well as fiscal illusions affect economic growth. Fiscal illusion is the source of distrust between the government and the people, which influences the economic growth through the channel of state budget and tax revenues. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between fiscal illusions and economic growth in Iran during the period of 1978-2014. The study consists of two steps: firstly, the fiscal illusions in the context of the model of LISRE software (Linear Structural Relationships) are determined and measured by the data given from the Central Bank and the Statistics Center of Iran during the years of 1978-2014. The results indicate that the most important determinant of the size of fiscal illusions in Iran is the tax burden that policy makers try to conceal by creating government debt illusions and illusions of private sector expenditures on public debt levels. In the second step, after estimating the fiscal illusion, its relationship with economic growth has been investigated using the ARDL model. The findings of the test show that fiscal illusions have a negative and significant effect on the economic growth in Iran in both short and long terms.
Economic Growth
Ramezan Hosseinzadeh; Mahmoud Espandar
Abstract
Export is one of the important factors affecting the production of various sectors of the economy. Therefore, this study examines the effect of export change on the production of sectors in Iran during 2006-2011 using input-output analysis. In order to achieve this goal, the country's input-output tables ...
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Export is one of the important factors affecting the production of various sectors of the economy. Therefore, this study examines the effect of export change on the production of sectors in Iran during 2006-2011 using input-output analysis. In order to achieve this goal, the country's input-output tables have been used in the years 2006 and 2011 and the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) technique has been used. Based on this technique, the total change in the country's exports is divided into two factors: the change in the total volume of exports (with a constant export structure) and the changes in structure of exports (with a constant volume of exports). The results show that the change in the structure of exports (with the constant amount of exports) increased the production of the economy by 51947.51 billion Rials. Also, changes in the volume of exports (with a constant export structure) has led to 1270999.65 billion Rials increase in the total output of economy. The total change in exports (summation of volume change and structure change effect) has also led to an increase 1322947.16 billion Rials in total output of the economy.
Economic Growth
Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi; Hadi Ghaffari; Mehdi Jaloli
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 13-28
Abstract
The current study, using the VAR model, tries to explore the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth in Iran during the 1981-2011 periods using the principle components analysis. In this study, using the principle components analysis (PCA), an indicator of economic instability ...
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The current study, using the VAR model, tries to explore the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth in Iran during the 1981-2011 periods using the principle components analysis. In this study, using the principle components analysis (PCA), an indicator of economic instability was built and then the impact of this indicator on economic growth of Iran was examined. The findings show that Only the importance of labor in the Agricultural sector but in other sectors more than other variables, physical capital is the more important in explaining economic growth. In all areas of macroeconomics, variable economic instability negative impact on economic growth in the sector. Four parts macroeconomic indicator of economic instability in the analysis of variance, respectively, in the fields of Industry and Minerals, Services, Agriculture and Oil and Gas exploration is more important.
Economic Growth
Mehdi Khodaei; Mohammad Jafari; Shahram Fattahi
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 79-92
Abstract
Macro-economic relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth has long been considered by economists. In this study to evaluate the more accurate effect of the government's fiscal policy in the economy, using quarterly data for the years 1988 to 2016, a factor-augmented vector autoregressive ...
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Macro-economic relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth has long been considered by economists. In this study to evaluate the more accurate effect of the government's fiscal policy in the economy, using quarterly data for the years 1988 to 2016, a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with time varying parameter model (TVP) in Iran's economy has been modeling. The variables of GDP growth, investment growth, inflation, exchange rates, the growth of private consumption expenditure and latent variable of government fiscal policies are used in model. Based on results the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in the whole period is positive and investment increased the rate of economic growth. Also the additive positive effects of fiscal policy on the unofficial exchange rate has increased over time. In addition, the effect of fiscal policy on inflation is positive, so that the additive effect in economic prosperity period is more. Finally, the effect of fiscal policy on private sector spending is negative. Results of this study show changes in relationships between variables over time and also indicate that economic conditions of the country affects the impacts of independent variables.
Economic Growth
Siab Mamipour; Atefeh Rezaei
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 107-122
Abstract
The inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate is known as Okun’s law in the economic literature. According to the importance of Okun's law on economic policy, investigating the relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth is very important at provincial level. ...
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The inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate is known as Okun’s law in the economic literature. According to the importance of Okun's law on economic policy, investigating the relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth is very important at provincial level. Also, with regard to labor mobility between provinces based on economic conditions, spatial and spillover effects are essential in regional studies; therefore, the main objectives of this paper are to investigate Okun's law in Iran's provinces with spatial econometric approach and whether Okun’s law can be used as a rule of thumb for surveying the labor market response to changes in regional economic growth, in Iran's provinces. A panel data set for 30 provinces during period of 2005 to 2013. The results show that unemployment rates and economic growth of provinces have spatial dependence and labor market performance is influenced by macroeconomic situation and its features the economic situation in neighboring provinces. Hence, in this study spatial panel is employed to investigate Okun’s law. The results of spatial panel (SAC) approve accuracy of Okun's law in Iran's provinces; and the development of regional labor market is not limited to the provincial borders and spillovers to other provinces.
Economic Growth
Majid Feshari
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 135-150
Abstract
The investigation of relationship between real exchange rate volatility regime and FDI is one of the main issues in macroeconomics and has been considered empirically in recent years. Economic activity in the world and in every moment of life is faced with a variety of risks and uncertainty. Through ...
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The investigation of relationship between real exchange rate volatility regime and FDI is one of the main issues in macroeconomics and has been considered empirically in recent years. Economic activity in the world and in every moment of life is faced with a variety of risks and uncertainty. Through of the uncertainty, it can be noted that the phenomenon of real exchange rate risk. This study intends to investigate the impact of real exchange rate fluctuations on foreign direct investment with annual data and during the 1974-2016, by using a Markov Switching on Iran deal. The results suggest that, real GDP as an indicator of the size of economy and trade openness have a positive and significant effect, real exchange rate has a positive impact on foreign direct investment in Iran. Hence, the decreasing of real exchange rate volatility through the control of domestic price fluctuations especially in the situation of high volatility is the main policy implication of this study to emprovement of FDI in Iran.
Economic Growth
Hassan Khodavaisi; Ahmad Ezzati Shourgoli
Volume 8, Issue 31 , June 2018, , Pages 151-168
Abstract
Barro (1990) by adding government spending into the growth models showed that the amount of government activities have a positive impact on economic growth, but if government spending is increased over a certain size, government activities will have a negative impact on economic growth. In this direction, ...
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Barro (1990) by adding government spending into the growth models showed that the amount of government activities have a positive impact on economic growth, but if government spending is increased over a certain size, government activities will have a negative impact on economic growth. In this direction, this paper by using theoretical Barro growth model and an empirical model for Iranian economy tries to investigate the impact of current and capital government expenditure on output growth using ARDL approach and state-space models applying quarterly data during 1967-2014. First, using Lumsdaine-Papell (1997) unit root test and Gregory-Hansen (1996) and Saikkonen and Lutkepohl (2002) cointegration test we determine the degree of integration and cointegration of the variables. The results indicate that there are structural breaks in the variables under study and these breaks affect the relationship between variables. Then we use ARDL model, considering structural breaks, to determine threshold level for current government expenditure which is 15.2 percent and for capital government expenditure which is 8.2 percent of GDP per head. Regarding Lucas theoretical critique and empirical structural breaks in the Iranian economy, we use state space model to investigate relationship between growth and the government size and the results indicate that coefficients are not stable during time and they behave differently regarding the source of the shock.
Economic Growth
aliakbar arabmazar; rassam moshrefi; mohammad mostafazadeh
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 17-32
Abstract
Economic growth is one of the key variables measuring economic performance of any country. So it is very important to understand the factors influencing it.In this paper, a selection of some institutional and political variables along with basic variables affecting economic growthhave been used to analyze ...
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Economic growth is one of the key variables measuring economic performance of any country. So it is very important to understand the factors influencing it.In this paper, a selection of some institutional and political variables along with basic variables affecting economic growthhave been used to analyze their effects on economic growth in period 1980 to 2013. Eight comparative models by applying ARDL method and using Eviewssoftware have been estimated.The research results indicate that the fundamental political and social parameters have stronger impact on economic growth in comparison of basic variables.The variables of democracy, the quality of law, economic freedom, openness, human development and good governance directly influence economic growth in Iran
Economic Growth
Teymour Rahmani; sima Motamedi
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 117-132
Abstract
The relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth is an issue that has always been of importance for economists. It is believed that foreign direct investment (FDI) is necessary to promote economic growth and capital formation in every country, particularly in the developing countries. ...
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The relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth is an issue that has always been of importance for economists. It is believed that foreign direct investment (FDI) is necessary to promote economic growth and capital formation in every country, particularly in the developing countries. Since it has been discussed that FDI promotes economic growth not only by increasing the volume of financial funds and relaxing the constraint on investment financed by domestic savings but also by technology and management skills transfer from advanced economies to developing economies in the context of endogenous growth models, it is necessary to examine the effect of FDI on economic growth via the above mentioned channels. In this study, we examine the effects of FDI on capital formation, labor productivity and economic growth. We try to test the hypothesis that FDI helps economic growth in developing countries not only via capital formation but also via the increase in productivity. To test this hypothesis, we use a panel data approach in a simultaneous equations system including three equations and three groups consisting of 111 developing countries over the time period 1995-2013. Our method of estimation is 2SLS. Our results show that in the sample we have examined, productivity has a higher effect on economic growth than capital formation. Therefore, the hypothesis that “FDI, by increasing productivity, has a positive effect on economic growth” is not rejected.
Economic Growth
Mohammad Ali Ehsani; Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 133-145
Abstract
Post Keynesian growth model considers the use of production factors as a function of production and introduces demand as the main determinant of economic growth. Accordingly, Thirlwall (1979) presented a model suggesting that demand is restrained by the balance of payments deficit and turns into substantial ...
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Post Keynesian growth model considers the use of production factors as a function of production and introduces demand as the main determinant of economic growth. Accordingly, Thirlwall (1979) presented a model suggesting that demand is restrained by the balance of payments deficit and turns into substantial limitations to achieve higher economic growth rate owing to balance of payments deficit. This model is known as Thirlwall law or “balance of payments constrained growth model”. In this model the maximum rate of economic growth consistent with the balance-of-payments equilibrium is figured out using income elasticity of import and export. Identifying the barriers to achieving the target growth rate has been turned into one of the most controversial economic issues because of the challenges of low economic growth in Iran. Thus this study is going to provide an answer to the question that, based on Thirlwall law, Whether the balance of payments deems obstacles to the target growth rates of development programs for the Iran’s economy or not? To accomplish this, first the long run cointegration relationship of import and export demand functions was approved by autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). Then, regarding the importance of the elasticities of above functions on the results of the study and removing the structural instability of the model coefficients, time–varying parameter (TVP) and Kalman – filter were used to estimate the elasticities. Finally the validity of Thirlwall law was not confirmed during 1984-2013 applying Wald Test. Therefore, it can be claimed that aggregate demand has not restricted the economic growth through the balance of payments. Low income elasticity of import, combination of imports, restrictions on imports and dependence of foreign trade on oil revenues are the most important reasons for the results.
Economic Growth
khaled ahmadzadeh; sholeh Nasri
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 145-166
Abstract
The main objective of this study is investigating the effect of economic and social infrastructure on economic growth gap within the framework of panel data method among Iran's provinces during the period (2006-2012). In this context, conditional and non-conditional convergency hypothesis related to ...
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The main objective of this study is investigating the effect of economic and social infrastructure on economic growth gap within the framework of panel data method among Iran's provinces during the period (2006-2012). In this context, conditional and non-conditional convergency hypothesis related to province's economic growth has tested. The results show endorsement of both types of convergency of economic growth in the provinces of Iran. Economic infrastructure including communications and energy has a significant positive influence on economic growth. By entering the economic infrastructure variables in the equation of convergency the economic growth gap in the regions is reduced. Combined index of social infrastructure has the significant negative impact on economic growth in provinces. So that there are significant positive effect of health expenditure and the significant negative impact of education expenditure on economic growth in provinces.Therefore in order to reduce the gap in economic growth in the country's provinces, paying more attention to economic infrastructure and health sector and to review the allocation of resources in the educational sector is recommended.
Economic Growth
Ali Mahdiloo; Hosein Asgharpour; Mohammad Mehdi Barghi Oskooei
Volume 7, Issue 28 , September 2017, , Pages 17-32
Abstract
There are two major views on the subject of the relationship between the development of non-oil exports and economic growth. In first opinion, non-oil exports leads to economic growth through the increase in quality of inputs. In second opinion, economic growth will increase non-oil exports throughquantitative ...
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There are two major views on the subject of the relationship between the development of non-oil exports and economic growth. In first opinion, non-oil exports leads to economic growth through the increase in quality of inputs. In second opinion, economic growth will increase non-oil exports throughquantitative strengthening of inputs. In non-linear models there are the ability to calculate relationship between variables and causal variables in different regimes. For this reason non-linear causality models can have better results than linear causality models. For this purpose in this study a Markov Switching model is used to investigate non-linear causal relationship between economic growth and non-oil export in the years 1973-2013. The results indicate that in first regime (high growth) and second regime (low economic growth), there is no causality between exports and economic growth. The reason is lack of sufficient attention to production of other economic sectors during the oil boom. As a result, it causes the weakening of production, reduction of domestic production and international competitive power and finally reduction of the share of exports of goods and services in economic growth.
Economic Growth
Mohammad Reza Lotfalipour; Morteza Bastam
Volume 7, Issue 27 , July 2017, , Pages 29-44
Abstract
Investigating economic aspects of pollutant emissions and their consequences, especially due to its increasing trend, is among important issues and accordingly in recent years much attention has been paid to its destructive impacts. In the present study, the impact of economic growth and urbanization ...
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Investigating economic aspects of pollutant emissions and their consequences, especially due to its increasing trend, is among important issues and accordingly in recent years much attention has been paid to its destructive impacts. In the present study, the impact of economic growth and urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions and existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is investigated. STRIPAT model framework was formed for the test and fixed impact parametric and semi-parametric panel data models were estimated for Asian countries from 2000 through 2014. Despite the fact that parametric panel data method didn't confirmed existence of inverted-U relationship for both models, but semi-parametric panel data confirmed EKC hypothesis just for economic growth and CO2 emissions variables.
Economic Growth
Hamid Azizmohammadlou
Volume 7, Issue 26 , February 2017, , Pages 17-34
Abstract
In this paper, the effects of industrial clusters on regional economic growth have been analyzed through an endogenous growth model using panel data approach (30 provinces during 2001-2012).The findings show a statistically significant relationship between industrial clusters and regional economic growth ...
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In this paper, the effects of industrial clusters on regional economic growth have been analyzed through an endogenous growth model using panel data approach (30 provinces during 2001-2012).The findings show a statistically significant relationship between industrial clusters and regional economic growth so that 1% increase in industrial cluster growth leads to 0.09% increase in reginal economic gowth rate. Investigating the mechanisms in which industrial clusters affect regional economic growth, reveals that the positive effects of industrial clusters on Iran regional economic growth are due to the improvement in labor and human capital. Industrial clusters, however, could not successfully enhance economic growth through technology development and finance facilitation. The findings show the necessity of serious attention to the technology and financial improvement program in the industrial cluster development policies.
Economic Growth
Yousef Mohammadzadeh; Samad Hekmati Farid; Elmira Sharifi
Volume 7, Issue 26 , February 2017, , Pages 97-112
Abstract
Although it is generally agreed that there is a role for the government to redistribute income in favor of the poor and provide public goods and services, there is considerable disagreement over how far the government should go in these areas.On this issue, a variety of conflicting theoretical explanations ...
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Although it is generally agreed that there is a role for the government to redistribute income in favor of the poor and provide public goods and services, there is considerable disagreement over how far the government should go in these areas.On this issue, a variety of conflicting theoretical explanations has been advanced that can only be resolved through empiricalinvestigations. According to importance of this issue the important question arises that, what is the effect of government size on good governance and economic performance? This study examines the relationship between government size, good governance and economic performance by estimating dynamic models using panel data from 50 selected countries for the period 1996-2013.The results show that the government size, and inflation have a negative and statistically significant effect on good governance indicator. Also employment index has a positive and significant impact on good governance indicator.The growth model also indicates that the government size has a negative and good governance indicator has a positive effect on economic growth. The interactions effects of government size and good governance indicator show that the size of government through governance indicator has a negative impact on economic growth. Also human development index, foreign direct investment, export and ICT's share of the imported goods have positive and significant effect on economic growth. Shrinking the size of the government and reducing its involvement in the economy, are two key policy recommendations of this study.
Economic Growth
Esmaiel Abounoori; Mahboobeh Farahati
Volume 7, Issue 25 , November 2016, , Pages 37-50
Abstract
Is economic growth in Iran affected by post-Keynesian economists theory? Is it possible to overcome economic recession in Iran using the post-Keynesian approach? According to the post-Keynesian point of view, the economic growth is either wage-led or profit led. In other words, the functional distribution ...
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Is economic growth in Iran affected by post-Keynesian economists theory? Is it possible to overcome economic recession in Iran using the post-Keynesian approach? According to the post-Keynesian point of view, the economic growth is either wage-led or profit led. In other words, the functional distribution of income determines the economic growth variation path. In this paper considering profit share, capacity utilization, capital accumulation, and net export/GDP ratio during 1967-2013, economic growth path in Iran is determined using Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) concerning the Impulse Response functions. The results show that increase in profit share increases capital accumulation, net export share of GDP and total demand or economic growth. Thus total demand regime or economic growth is profit-led. The result of this research approves the theoretical results of Bhaduri and Marglin (1990); concerning the income distribution effect on international trade in an open economy, the possibility of profit-led regime increases and may help to overcome the recession.
Economic Growth
Morteza Salehi Sarbijan
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, , Pages 55-68
Abstract
Economic growth forecast is a major problem in economy that has a significant impact in government policy and economic planning. It also helps policy makers for future decisions. Multivariate econometric forecasting models associated with many limitations, so an alternative approach is the use of univariate ...
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Economic growth forecast is a major problem in economy that has a significant impact in government policy and economic planning. It also helps policy makers for future decisions. Multivariate econometric forecasting models associated with many limitations, so an alternative approach is the use of univariate models, but most of these methods need a lot of data to achieve the best result. In this study, data from 1959 to 2005 were used to estimate the models. Then the performances of auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the economic growth forecast of Iran was evaluated and compared with Markov switching method and fuzzy neural network (ANFIS) for the period from 2006 to 2013 using the Criteria RMSE, MAE and MAPE. Results showed that ANFIS model had the best performance. Furthermore, Markov switching method was more suitable than ARIMA model.
Economic Growth
Hossein Ostadi
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, , Pages 133-144
Abstract
Economic growth is one of the most important goals of macroeconomics in current communities and its rate shows the rate of increase or reduction of GDP and improvement or reduction rate of welfare of people. This study evaluates the important factors of economic growth in Iran based on the effects of ...
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Economic growth is one of the most important goals of macroeconomics in current communities and its rate shows the rate of increase or reduction of GDP and improvement or reduction rate of welfare of people. This study evaluates the important factors of economic growth in Iran based on the effects of subsidy targeting plan. The study period is 1991-2012 and the study variables are including time series of Iran economy. After performing unit root test and evaluation of the stationary of variables based on Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF), the model coefficients are estimated by concurrent equations system and Two-Stage Least Square Method (2SLS) in Eviews software. The study findings show that value added of various economic sectors has positive and significant impact on GDP and economic growth. As the government size is evaluated by government costs to GDP ratio, the coefficient of government expenditures variable is negative and significant at level 6% statistically. The coefficient of public level variable of prices is negative and significant and it shows that inflation phenomenon and increasing the price of energy carriers increase production costs in short-term and GDP growth rate is reduced. The elimination of paid subsidies to manufactures and increases of production costs of economic enterprises and serious economic sanctions reduce economic growth rate.
Economic Growth
Abolfazl Shahabadi; Hossein Sohrabi vafa; Yunes Salmani
Volume 6, Issue 23 , May 2016, , Pages 88-75
Abstract
The recent economic growth theories believe that the inovation developed in response to economic incentives is the main engine of technological progress and economic growth traditionally. Thus this study investigates the role of capital and R&D activities in Iran, Turkey and Malaysia with distributed ...
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The recent economic growth theories believe that the inovation developed in response to economic incentives is the main engine of technological progress and economic growth traditionally. Thus this study investigates the role of capital and R&D activities in Iran, Turkey and Malaysia with distributed lag regression during 1981-2012. The result indicates that in the long term, in Malaysia, impact of R&D activities, is sustainable and more stable on economic growth in comparison with Iran and Turkey. Also the R&D investment compared with physical capital has a greater impacton economic growth inTurkey and Iran.
Economic Growth
Mohsen Mehrara; Sadeq Rezaei Bargoshadi
Volume 6, Issue 23 , May 2016, , Pages 114-89
Abstract
This paper identifies determinants of economic growth in Iran, by using averaging methods and annual time series data from 1974 to 2012. The results indicate that ratio of oil revenue toGDPis the most important variable affecting economic growth. Also the second and third effective variables on growth ...
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This paper identifies determinants of economic growth in Iran, by using averaging methods and annual time series data from 1974 to 2012. The results indicate that ratio of oil revenue toGDPis the most important variable affecting economic growth. Also the second and third effective variables on growth are respectively ratio of imported capital and intermediate goods toGDPand labor force which lead to an increase in growth. Endogenous growth factors which are the factors contributing to formation of human capital, not possess a large role in growth process. Investments, especially government investment affects contrary to were expected. In fact, low quality, and productivity of investments and poor allocation reduced importance of investment’s quantity. The nature of Iran’s economy has not endogenous and dynamic features and predominantly, growth has been made by injecting of exogenous sources. Emphasis on formal and informal educational orientation in the quality of human capital instead of increasing in quantity of education is recommended.
Economic Growth
Zahra Afshari
Volume 6, Issue 22 , January 2016, , Pages 20-13
Abstract
This article examines theselected socio- economic determinants of fertility in Iran. For this purpose, the data for 30 provinces of Iran during the period 2006-2012 were considered. The panel data method of estimation was applied to estimate the relationship between the variables. The resultsshow thateconomic ...
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This article examines theselected socio- economic determinants of fertility in Iran. For this purpose, the data for 30 provinces of Iran during the period 2006-2012 were considered. The panel data method of estimation was applied to estimate the relationship between the variables. The resultsshow thateconomic development in provinces measured by GDP per capita decreased the fertility rate. Economic development accompanied by urbanization and industrialization increased the share of women with higher education in population. These developments by changing the rule of women in family decision making and postponing the marriage increased the average age of women in first marriage. These factors had a reverse and significant impact on fertility rate in Iran for the period under consideration. These results confirm the modernization school of thought. Furthermore, our model, consistent with some previous cross country researches,indicates that fertility reveals procyclical behavior which confirm the Pennsylvania theory of fertility.
Economic Growth
Ahmad Jafari Samimi; elham alizadeh malafeh
Volume 6, Issue 22 , January 2016, , Pages 70-57
Abstract
Expansion of energy consumption and trend of rising emissions of pollutants resulting from the combustion of energy carriers in the world has caused environmental crises which be recognized as one of the most important challenges which governments in the twenty-first century are facing. That is why governments ...
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Expansion of energy consumption and trend of rising emissions of pollutants resulting from the combustion of energy carriers in the world has caused environmental crises which be recognized as one of the most important challenges which governments in the twenty-first century are facing. That is why governments try to take various policies and programs in order to overcome on environmental problems such as air pollution. One of the most common types of policies that cause minimum inefficiency in the economy is obtaining the green taxes which is applied on the basis of cost. Accordingly, in this study, the effects of increase of green taxes on economic growth, based on the design of Computable General Equilibrium model for Iran and implementation of Social Accounting Matrix in 2001 in the form of eight scenarios were examined.
The increasing rates of taxes from one to forty percent have been done in eight scenarios. The obtained results show that the increasing rate of green taxes as an indirect one increases the economic growth in all scenarios. also the positive effect of lower pollution leads in positive economic growth in all scenarios, too.
