Mahdi Nouri; Hamed Navidi
Volume 3, Issue 9 , April 2013, , Pages 70-59
Abstract
Expanding non-oil export to get rid of one-product economy has been known as a solution for economic development inIran. Hence, it is necessary to study factors affecting this economic variable. The exchange rate and risk associated with its unexpected volatilities can be noted as the factors affecting ...
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Expanding non-oil export to get rid of one-product economy has been known as a solution for economic development inIran. Hence, it is necessary to study factors affecting this economic variable. The exchange rate and risk associated with its unexpected volatilities can be noted as the factors affecting export. On this basis, this research aims to investigate the effect of real exchange rate risk onIran’s non-oil export. To do this, the disaggregate data belonging to 13Iran’s trading partners over the period of 1985-2010 was used. The panel data approach was also utilized in the analysis process. Furthermore, to more accurate investigate of this subject, 7 alternative criteria were used to assess the volatility of real exchange rate. The results indicated that the exchange rate risk has a positive and significant effect onIran’s non-oil export in the short-run. This result could be attributed to the positive nature of exchange rate volatility in Iran so that this matter could change the expectations of economic agents, especially exporters, to improve the general trend of real exchange rate.
Saeed i Rasekh; Milad Shahrazi; Mohamad Reza Abdollahi
Volume 2, Issue 7 , September 2012, , Pages 90-81
Abstract
This paper examines asymmetric impact of exchange rate and its risk (volatility) on Iran’s non oil export. The asymmetric effect indicates to differently affect exchange rate and its volatility on export at periods of exchange rate moving up and down. To test this hypothesis, we have first measured ...
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This paper examines asymmetric impact of exchange rate and its risk (volatility) on Iran’s non oil export. The asymmetric effect indicates to differently affect exchange rate and its volatility on export at periods of exchange rate moving up and down. To test this hypothesis, we have first measured the volatility by using exponential GARCH and then we’ve estimated the export equation including the volatility during time period 1959-2007. Based on the results, the effect of exchange rate on the export is positive and asymmetric. Also, the volatility of exchange rate has a negative and an asymmetric effect. So, the hypothesis is verified. This may be due to the asymmetric feeling of exporters about the risk and reflect their anti risk behavior. Based on the results, economic policy makers should make different policies while exchange rate moving down compared with its moving up in order to minimize the negative effects of the volatility.
