Mostafa Omidali; Mohammad Hassan Fotros; aliakbar gholizadeh
Abstract
Factors such as expectations, lack of financial flexibility, uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and other economic and non-economic indicators are influential in creating business cycles, none of which alone creates business cycles. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship ...
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Factors such as expectations, lack of financial flexibility, uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and other economic and non-economic indicators are influential in creating business cycles, none of which alone creates business cycles. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic, financial, political and international risks with the economic business cycles of Iran during the period 2001-2009. To achieve this goal, the long-run trend will be separated from the cyclical GDP trend using the Hadrick-Prescott filter, and the data will be analyzed using the Structural Vector Distribution (SVAR) model. According to the results, the average of one business cycle in the Iranian economy is equal to 10 seasons, which are equal to 5.45 and 5 seasons for the recession and boom period, respectively. Economic risk of -0.0354 percentage has immediate effects on the business cycles of the Iranian economy, which for financial risk, international risk and political risk, the figures show -0.0035, -0.0031 and 0.0048 percentage, respectively. According to the Granger causality test, the two variables of economic risk and financial risk are the cause of business cycles in the Iranian economy, while political and international risks are not the cause of business cycles. Economic risks in the first period with an impact of about 6% have the most explanatory effect in creating business cycles of GDP, after which financial risk has the greatest impact on business cycles, on the other hand, political risks among the studied risks have the least impact on cycles.
mansour heydari; Hossein Asgharpur; Davoud Hamidi Razi; sadeq Rezaie
Abstract
The main purpose of the present study is to investigate the effects of currency regimes on economic growth with emphasis on the role and intermediation of inflation in Iran in different business cycles. In this regard, using the Markov Switching method in the period 1340-1394, the objective has been ...
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The main purpose of the present study is to investigate the effects of currency regimes on economic growth with emphasis on the role and intermediation of inflation in Iran in different business cycles. In this regard, using the Markov Switching method in the period 1340-1394, the objective has been studied.The estimation results show that the Iranian economy has three regimes, moderate growth and high economic growth, so that the moderate growth regime should use a fixed exchange rate regime، to increase economic growth by increasing stability and increasing investment. During the recession and in the range of -0.16 to 14% of inflation, the fixed system is suitable and in the rest of the floating-rate inflation rates it is suitable for economic growth by increasing the competitiveness of domestic products against foreign products that have been weakened due to inflation Estimated results for high growth period show that in the inflation range of 5 to 44%, the floating system has the best performance for economic growth due to increased competitiveness of domestic production against foreign products.
Anita Azimi hosseini; Beitollah Akbari Moghaddam; Morteza Asadi
Abstract
This study was conducted to examine business cycles and identify significant factors affecting these cycles using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) in presence of institutional, political and global factors in five oil exporting countries including Canada, Iran, Nigeria, Norway and Venezuela during ...
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This study was conducted to examine business cycles and identify significant factors affecting these cycles using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) in presence of institutional, political and global factors in five oil exporting countries including Canada, Iran, Nigeria, Norway and Venezuela during 1995-2016. The results of Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVDs) indicated that short-term GDP had the maximum value in justifying instability. In long term, the role of GDP was decreased due to increasing role of other variables. so that at the end of periods except Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela oil shock in Canada and financial shock in Norway are the reasons for the business cycles. Moreover, findings show that political and institutional factors have changed the role of shocks and impulses. so that the impact of effective shock has decreased in instability during long term. Political and institutional factors had the considerable role in Iran and Norway, respectively. It is suggested that policymakers, before deciding on policies, first by the model used in this research examine economic and non-economic variables affecting the business cycle, and then apply appropriate monetary and fiscal policies.
Dynamic Panel Data
Ebrahim Abdi; Farhad Khodadad Kashi; Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi
Abstract
Over the past two decades, significant changes have taken place in the banking market power in Iran economy. In addition, economic theories provide different forecasts on the impact of banking market power on firms’ investment. For this reason, the present study examines the impact of these changes ...
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Over the past two decades, significant changes have taken place in the banking market power in Iran economy. In addition, economic theories provide different forecasts on the impact of banking market power on firms’ investment. For this reason, the present study examines the impact of these changes on firms’ investment. For this purpose, using the data of Tehran Stock Exchange companies during the period of 2005 to 2016, the investment model was estimated based on Euler's equations and dynamic generalized method of moments. The results of model estimation with confirming the existence of financial friction in Iran economy showed that firms faced financial constraint on investment. In addition, by rejecting market power hypothesis and by confirming asymmetric information hypothesis, the results showed that the declining in banking market power led to an increase in firms' financial constraints. The results also suggest that the firm size has been affecting the firm financial constraints, and increasing in the banking market power has reduced the financial constraints of small firms more than large firms. The results of model estimation with regard to the effect of business cycles indicate that during the boom period, the positive effect of the banking market power on firms' financial constraints has decreased and this effect increases during the recession period.
s
Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh; Mohammad Ali Ehsani; Mohammad Taghi Gilak Hakim Abadi
Abstract
The 2007 global financial crisis showed that financial cycles is one of the reasons for the fluctuations of macroeconomics and could create business cycles. If there is such a relationship, adopting an active policy response to smooth financial cycles seems necessary. The present study investigates the ...
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The 2007 global financial crisis showed that financial cycles is one of the reasons for the fluctuations of macroeconomics and could create business cycles. If there is such a relationship, adopting an active policy response to smooth financial cycles seems necessary. The present study investigates the dynamics of the relationship between financial cycles with business cycles and the inflation gap in Iran's economy during 1990:1 – 2016:4. To accomplish this, first, a financial condition index for Iran's economy has been created. In addition, the causality test has been conducted in the frequency domain and available frequencies have been determined to predict economic growth whit the index. Then, in order to investigate the purpose of the research and analysis in the frequency domain and time-frequency domain, the new Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform and Continuous Wavelet Transform tools are used. The results show the relationship between financial cycle and the business cycle in the short run and long run is bilateral and extremely unstable. In the medium run, the business cycle is a leading variable, but the phase difference between the two variables in the 1990s is different from those of the 2000s. In the medium run, the financial cycles have kept inflation away from its long run trend. But in the long run and after 2007, this relationship has been reversed. According to the results of the research, it is recommended that monetary policy makers, in addition to smoothing output and inflation around their long run trends, should also consider this for the financial sector so that the two objectives above can be achieved with lower error in different frequencies.
