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Mohammad Hassan Fotros; ali dalaei milan
Volume 7, Issue 25 , November 2016, , Pages 65-84
Abstract
Planning for economic development and making a decision for the implementation of economic policies, need to understand the performance of the whole economy, including the official sector and the underground sector. Understanding the performance of the whole economy requires to know economic information ...
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Planning for economic development and making a decision for the implementation of economic policies, need to understand the performance of the whole economy, including the official sector and the underground sector. Understanding the performance of the whole economy requires to know economic information system situation and its efficiency. This study used a DSGE model framework for modelling the underground economy and the effect of oil shock, fiscal impulses (such as changing tax rates) and the shock of productivity on the official economy and underground economy. The results of the evaluation showed that the present model was well able to simulate cyclical behavior and volatility of the variables. The results also showed that a positive impulse to the productivity of official sector caused an increase in official production and a decrease in underground economy and this consequently reduced tax evasion and increased government revenue. On the contrary an impulse to the underground sector productivity of, leaded to a decrease in official production, an increase in underground production and consequently an increase in tax evasion and reducing the government's revenues. Furthermore, a positive shock in the corporate tax rate and income tax rate reduced the official production, increased underground production and tax evasion and decreased government revenue. Positive shock to oil revenues increased official production and reduced underground economy and consequently reduced tax evasion and increased revenue for the government..
Mohammad Hassan Fotros; Hossein Tavakolian; Reza Maaboudi
Volume 5, Issue 19 , June 2015, , Pages 94-73
Abstract
This paper studies impacts of monetary and fiscal shocks on macroeconomic variables in Iran. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach is employed to sketch an appropriate model for Iranian economy. To calculate the required coefficients, data of the period 1961-2012 released ...
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This paper studies impacts of monetary and fiscal shocks on macroeconomic variables in Iran. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach is employed to sketch an appropriate model for Iranian economy. To calculate the required coefficients, data of the period 1961-2012 released by the Central Bank of Iran are gathered. In order to take in consideration the Iranian economic characteristics, oil revenues, sticky prices, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and technology are considered in the model. Results indicate that technological shocks increase non oil production, private investment consumption, and GDP. So, technological shocks increase economic growth and reduce inflation. Increase in oil revenues promotes non-oil production, private consumption, government expenditure, and private investment. So, in short run, the impact of oil shock on economic growth is positive. But oil shock increases inflation via an increase in money base. Monetary shocks (increase in money base) increase internal consumption and money liquidity (the inflation) and somehow the GDP. But, monetary shocks have small effects on the non oil production. In sum, monetary shock has a small positive impact on economic growth. So, in short run, money neutrality hypothesis cannot be retained. Also, government expenditure shock increases government expenditures, private consumption, and decreases private investment. In sum, government expenditure shock has a positive effect on production, inflation and economic growth.
Gholamreza Zamanian; Mohammad Hasan Fotros; Elham Rezaei
Volume 5, Issue 17 , December 2014, , Pages 108-91
Abstract
Research and development (R&D) has been condsidered as the most important method for a rapid advancement of technology and manufacturing competitiveness and innovation. This study aims to assess R&D spillovers on the total productivity factors (TFP) of Iranian manufacturing industries in the ...
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Research and development (R&D) has been condsidered as the most important method for a rapid advancement of technology and manufacturing competitiveness and innovation. This study aims to assess R&D spillovers on the total productivity factors (TFP) of Iranian manufacturing industries in the period 2000-2008. This study employing two-stage GMM method uses statistical data of domestic R&D accumulation of industries in nineteen code of the two-digit ISIC, foreign R&D and imports of fifteen trading partners of Iran to measure the effect of R&D spillovers on the TFP of Iranian manufacturing industries. Results indicate that the interaction between human capital and foreign R&D accumulation, the interaction between import and foreign R&D accumulation, effects of external R&D accumulation and internal R&D have most positive impact on total factor productivity of Iranian manufacturing industries respectively. Internal expenditures on R&D in the chosen period have failed to provide new products and services and imperove competitiveness, technology and increasing TFP growth.
Kuznets Curve
Mohammad Hassan Fotros
Volume 1, Issue 1 , January 2012, , Pages 77-59
Abstract
This research investigates the existence of relationships between economic growth and carbon emissions in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for the period of 1960 to 2005. A model relating economic growth and carbon emissions is used to examine the eventual existence of Environmental ...
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This research investigates the existence of relationships between economic growth and carbon emissions in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for the period of 1960 to 2005. A model relating economic growth and carbon emissions is used to examine the eventual existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. To test our hpothesis, the econometric panel data approach is employed. The results indicate that there is a positive relationship between gross domestic product and CO2 emissions. And, with persistence of economic growth this relationship becomes negative. That is, the estimation has given an EKC relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions in these countrries.
