Ali Abbasi; Ali Hussein Samadi; Ebrahim Hadian; Parviz Rostamzadeh
Abstract
The effectiveness of monetary policy is one of the most challenges of monetary authorities. It depends on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy authorities and private sector behavior. Fiscal authority may or may not respect its intertemporal budget balance. Private agent's behavior in forecasting ...
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The effectiveness of monetary policy is one of the most challenges of monetary authorities. It depends on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy authorities and private sector behavior. Fiscal authority may or may not respect its intertemporal budget balance. Private agent's behavior in forecasting future values of macroeconomic variables is of the most importance. In standard monetary policy models, it is assumed that the fiscal authority tries to settle its outstanding debt. It is also assumed that, the economic agents forecast the future values of macroeconomic variables with rational expectations. Some studies about fiscal structure of the governments have shown that governments face with sustained budget deficit or accumulating outstanding debt. In this respect, many studies have investigated monetary policy in the context of fiscal authority which is not willing or not able to respect its intertemporal budget balance. At the same time many studies and evidences have shown that expectation formation of economic agents departs from rational expectations and different groups of agents may use different procedures to forecast future values of macroeconomic variables. This paper, taking into account these issues, drives the appropriate monetary rule under heterogeneous expectations and fiscal dominance in Iran. For this purpose, a closed economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two types of expectations: forward looking rational and backward looking adaptive expectations is used. Simulation results show that a fiscal shock increases production, inflation, investment and decreases consumption. Money growth rate shock increases production, inflation and consumption and decreases investment. Comparing the effects of two shocks shows that the effects of fiscal shock on variables is greater than the effect of monetary shock. It is also shown that increasing the share of non-rational agents increases the volatility of inflation expectations and output gap in response to fiscal and monetary shocks. This shows the importance of anchoring expectations in monetary policy design.
International Commerce
somaye alikarami; Ebrahim Hadian; parviz rostamzadeh; Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri
Abstract
The purpose of this study has been to consider the effects of non-price factors along with price factors on the demand of Iranian export from 1988 to 2017.In this research, a single error correction model is used to evaluate the short-term dynamics and long-term effects simultaneously. Moreover, in this ...
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The purpose of this study has been to consider the effects of non-price factors along with price factors on the demand of Iranian export from 1988 to 2017.In this research, a single error correction model is used to evaluate the short-term dynamics and long-term effects simultaneously. Moreover, in this study compare to previous researches, a more flexible approach has been included in the export function which is based on the structural time series' patterns which are the trends that express the effects of non-pricing factors. Then, the OXmetric software and the Kalman filter is utilized to estimate the amount of trend in each year, and the effect of each factor on the trend component is evaluated by the Ordinary Least Square Method. The results indicate that the price elasticity of the export is low. Also, the impact of non-pricing factors such as globalization, total productivity of production factors, innovation, electronic commerce and foreign direct investment on non-oil exports were assessed. The results have shown the significant effect of all factors and the negative impact of economic freedom, openness and foreign direct investment on the implicit process export.
Co2 Emissions
Rouhollah Shahnazi; Ebrahim Hadian; Lotfollah Jargani
Volume 7, Issue 28 , September 2017, , Pages 51-70
Abstract
Although the trend of increase in energy consumption has made possible fast economic growth of industrial modern society, but because of combustion pollutants emission and increase in density of carbon dioxide in atmosphere has made irreversible changes in the world. Not only this trend is destroying ...
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Although the trend of increase in energy consumption has made possible fast economic growth of industrial modern society, but because of combustion pollutants emission and increase in density of carbon dioxide in atmosphere has made irreversible changes in the world. Not only this trend is destroying finite and nonrenewable energies, but also it is releasing numerous of pollutants into the receptive environment (air, water, and soil). In this article, existence of causality relation between energy carriers' consumption with economic growth and carbon dioxide gas emission in sectors of Iran's economy (residential, general and commercial, industry, agriculture, and transportation) in period of 1997 to 2012 using causality Toda and Yamamoto method has been studied. In the agriculture sector, results show a unidirectional causality relation of energy carrier consumption to economic growth. In transportation, residential, general and economic sectors existence of bidirectional causality relation of economic growth variable and carbon dioxide gas emission with energy carriers has been verified. In industry sector, a unidirectional causality relation of economic growth to gas, electricity to economic growth and bidirectional causality relation of coal exist. Also, there is a unidirectional causality relation of carbon dioxide emission to oil and bidirectional causality relation carbon dioxide gas emission to other variables except oil exist.
Ebrahim Hadian; Ali Hussein Ostadzad
Volume 3, Issue 12 , November 2013, , Pages 74-57
Abstract
Environmental damage caused by economic activities is known as one of the most important side that affecting social welfare adversely. Pollution emissions related with more economic activities reduce positive impact of economic growth on social welfare. Hence concern of policy makers is to formulate ...
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Environmental damage caused by economic activities is known as one of the most important side that affecting social welfare adversely. Pollution emissions related with more economic activities reduce positive impact of economic growth on social welfare. Hence concern of policy makers is to formulate and implement the economic planning in order to control environmental damage caused by expanding of economic activities. One of these control instruments is to levy a pollution tax. Therefore in this paper we are tried to calculate the optimal level of pollution tax for Iranian economy using an augmented growth model. To this end, we intended a tripartite model consists of households, firms and government. After solving the model, we estimated optimal pollution tax using data of Iranian economy. Calibrating the solved model, the optimal pollution tax is estimated about 7.8 thousand Rials per ton of CO2 emissions.
