Economic Growth
Hossein Asgharpur; Mohammad-Salar Shahryari; Jaafar Haghighat; Saman Hatamerad; mansour heydari
Abstract
One of the important problems in examining economic growth is equating the frequency of variables affecting production, which approach leads to the loss of information on explanatory variables that have a high frequency compared to economic growth. In this study, by using the MIDAS and MIDAS-VAR method, ...
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One of the important problems in examining economic growth is equating the frequency of variables affecting production, which approach leads to the loss of information on explanatory variables that have a high frequency compared to economic growth. In this study, by using the MIDAS and MIDAS-VAR method, the effect of Tehran Stock market performance on the economic growth of Iran during the period of 2011 to 2021 has been investigated for quarterly and monthly data. The results of the estimates indicate the in the first month of the seasons when the number of stock market booms was high, stock returns had a very positive and significant impact on economic growth. This positive effect decreased with the increase in the number of recessions in the third months and in the second month of every quarter when the number of recessions in the stock market was high, and this had a negative effect on economic growth. Also, the empirical findings indicate that the intensity of the influence of stock returns was stronger in periods of recession than in periods of prosperity. Therefore, the most important policy recommendation of the current research is that in order to increase economic growth, it is necessary for economic policy makers to provide the basis for the growth and development of the stock market and increase its efficiency by adopting appropriate policies, and also prevent recession and its prolongation in the stock market.
mansour heydari; Hossein Asgharpur; Davoud Hamidi Razi; sadeq Rezaie
Abstract
The main purpose of the present study is to investigate the effects of currency regimes on economic growth with emphasis on the role and intermediation of inflation in Iran in different business cycles. In this regard, using the Markov Switching method in the period 1340-1394, the objective has been ...
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The main purpose of the present study is to investigate the effects of currency regimes on economic growth with emphasis on the role and intermediation of inflation in Iran in different business cycles. In this regard, using the Markov Switching method in the period 1340-1394, the objective has been studied.The estimation results show that the Iranian economy has three regimes, moderate growth and high economic growth, so that the moderate growth regime should use a fixed exchange rate regime، to increase economic growth by increasing stability and increasing investment. During the recession and in the range of -0.16 to 14% of inflation, the fixed system is suitable and in the rest of the floating-rate inflation rates it is suitable for economic growth by increasing the competitiveness of domestic products against foreign products that have been weakened due to inflation Estimated results for high growth period show that in the inflation range of 5 to 44%, the floating system has the best performance for economic growth due to increased competitiveness of domestic production against foreign products.