اثرات سیاست تحکیم مالی بر متغیرهای مهم اقتصاد کلان ایران با تأکید بر رشد تولید: رویکرد FAVAR

نوع مقاله: فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد توسعه اقتصادی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، مازندران، ایران

2 استاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، مازندران، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، مازندران، ایران

چکیده

هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی اثر سیاست تحکیم مالی مبتنی بر شوک‌های درآمدی و هزینه‌ای بر متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان کشور است. در این راستا با استفاده از روش اتورگرسیون برداری عامل افزوده (FAVAR) تأثیر شوک‌های درآمدی و شوک‌های هزینه‌ای دولت بر متغیرهای رشد تولید حقیقی، رشد سرمایه‌گذاری، رشد مصرف بخش خصوصی و تورم در بازه زمانی 1363:1-1394:4 مطالعه شده است.
نتایج حاصل از الگوهای پژوهش حکایت از آن دارد که آثار ابزار سیاست تحکیم مالی بر متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان کشور متفاوت بوده و ارائه ابزار سیاستی یکسان جهت تأثیرگذاری مناسب بر تمام متغیرهای مورد نظر دشوار است. بنابراین با تأکید بر هدف رشد تولید حقیقی که عامل مهم و تأثیرگذار در اقتصاد است و سایر متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد، می‌توان عنوان نمود که در کوتاه‌مدت که شامل 4 فصل می‌شود، کاهش مخارج عمومی و افزایش درآمدهای دولت منجر به کاهش تولید در پاسخ به واکنش منفی سرمایه‌گذاری و مصرف بخش خصوصی می‌شود و تورم کاهش می‌یابد. بنابراین در کوتاه‌مدت سیاست مناسب تحکیم مالی ترکیبی از سیاست کاهش مخارج و افزایش درآمد است و به طور مشخص سیاست کاهش مخارج جاری و افزایش مالیات بر واردات است. در میان‌مدت و بلندمدت که به ترتیب شامل 8 و 16 فصل می‌باشد رشد تولید حقیقی نسبت به سیاست کاهش مخارج کل واکنش مثبتی از خود نشان می‌دهد و کاهش مخارج جاری و مخارج امور اجتماعی دولت به عنوان ابزار تحکیم مالی معرفی می‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effects of Fiscal Consolidation Policy on Important Macroeconomic Variables of Iran with Emphasis on Production Growth: FAVAR Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • saeed karimi potanlar 1
  • ahmad jafari samimi 2
  • hamid Hamid La'l-e-Khezri 3
1 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Mazandaran, Iran
2 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Mazandaran, Iran
3 PHD studentPh.D. Student of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Mazandaran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The aim of this article is to analyzing the effect of shocks of fiscal consolidation policy on the macroeconomic variables of Iran. In this regard by using Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) method the effect of shocks on government revenues and expenditures on important macroeconomic variables including total real GDP growth, inflation, private consumption growth and investment growth over the period 1984:1 -2015:4 is investigated.
The results of research models show that the effect of fiscal consolidation policy on the macroeconomic variables are different, and it is difficult to provide a same policy tool to effect all variables. Thus with emphasis on real GDP growth which is a major factor that affects other macroeconomic variables, it can be noted that in short term which consists of 4 seasons, reducing public expenditures and increasing government revenues lead to a reduction in production in response to a negative reaction to investment and private consumption and inflation will decrease. Therefore in the short term the suitable policy for fiscal consolidation is a combination of expenditure cut and income rising and in particular, the policy of reducing current expenditure and increasing import taxes. In the medium and long term, respectively consist of 8 and 16 seasons, real GDP growth responses positively to the expenditures cut policy, decline in current expenditures and social public expenditures is introduced as an instrument of fiscal consolidation policy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fiscal Consolidation
  • Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR)
  • Impulse Response Functions
  • Real GDP Growth

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