Co2 Emissions
Fatemeh Mehrabi; Somayeh Azami
Abstract
In today's world, welfare is considered as a result of the development process, but this economic growth, along with the increase in pollutants, has made environmental crises a major challenge for governments. Therefore, creating a balance between economic development and environmental quality has become ...
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In today's world, welfare is considered as a result of the development process, but this economic growth, along with the increase in pollutants, has made environmental crises a major challenge for governments. Therefore, creating a balance between economic development and environmental quality has become one of the main priorities of policymakers. This research, using the dynamic stochastic environmental general equilibrium model and employing money growth as a monetary policy variable ,government expenditure as a fiscal policy variable and carbon tax as a policy variable in the environmental field aims to examine and analyze the welfare effects of macroeconomic and environmental policies and presents a new rule for fiscal , monetary, and environmental policies analyzes the interactions between fiscal, monetary, and environmental policies in the Iranian economy. The research findings show that in conditions of economic prosperity and the presence of positive aggregate productivity shocks, fiscal policy is the only policy that can reduce emission levels and simultaneously improve household welfare.The results of this study can be useful for environmental policymakers and monetary and fiscal decision-makers in Iran.
s
Masoume Shafieian; Abolfazl Shahabadi
Abstract
This study examines the impact of different types of inequality, including educational inequality, health inequality, wealth inequality, gender inequality, personal inequality, and legal inequality, on the national peace index using the generalized system moment econometric method. The statistical population ...
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This study examines the impact of different types of inequality, including educational inequality, health inequality, wealth inequality, gender inequality, personal inequality, and legal inequality, on the national peace index using the generalized system moment econometric method. The statistical population includes the OECD, and OIC countries in the period 2009-2021. Estimations were made for annual data and 5-year averaged data. The research findings in both groups show a positive relationship between health inequality and peace, and the insignificance of the coefficient of legal inequality in the short term; in OIC countries, shows a negative relationship between personal, educational, and gender inequality and peace, and in OECD countries, represent a negative relationship between wealth inequality and peace. The results of the estimation based on average data show that in OIC countries, in the long run, reducing health inequality increases national peace. Also, in both groups of countries, the short-term impact of wealth inequality is no different from its long-term impact. Moreover, in OIC countries, the short-term effect of personal, educational, and gender inequality is not different from its long-term effect, and reducing personal, educational, and gender inequality always increases peace. According to the research findings, the estimated coefficient of health, gender, and education inequality variables in the two groups has the largest numerical size.
Industry
parviz mohamadzadeh; ebrahim javidi; mohamad bager beheshti
Abstract
The main objective of this research is to design a policy framework for identifying the fundamental causes behind the absence of large international economic organizations in Iran, with a focus on the institutional structure of production. This qualitative study employs the grounded theory approach based ...
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The main objective of this research is to design a policy framework for identifying the fundamental causes behind the absence of large international economic organizations in Iran, with a focus on the institutional structure of production. This qualitative study employs the grounded theory approach based on Strauss and Corbin’s methodology. Data were collected through semi structured interviews with experts and documentary analysis during 2023–2024. The analytical process consisted of three stages—open coding, axial coding, and selective coding—which ultimately resulted in the extraction of 25 axial codes from 599 initial ones. The validity and reliability of findings were evaluated and confirmed using a test–retest reliability index.The results led to the development of a paradigmatic model in which the core phenomenon is the failure to form large scale international economic organizations in Iran. The underlying causes of this phenomenon include weak institutional development capacity, macroeconomic and policy instability, inappropriate government intervention in the economy, and sanctions. These factors operate within a context characterized by an oil dependent economy, an anti production culture, and low social capital.Additional challenges—such as managerial inefficiency, resource and infrastructure limitations, rent seeking, and capital flight—hinder the implementation of effective strategies. Moreover, institutional and legal deficiencies, the underdevelopment of the private sector, and inactive economic diplomacy reinforce this condition. The short and long term consequences include small firm scales, weakened competitiveness, increased state dependency, and persistent innovation stagnation.
s
Majid Aghaei; Mahdieh Rezagholizadeh; samira chavoshani
Abstract
The stock and housing markets, as two major asset markets in the Iranian economy, may be influenced both by their mutual interactions and by macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate. Accordingly, the present study investigates the dynamics of return and volatility ...
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The stock and housing markets, as two major asset markets in the Iranian economy, may be influenced both by their mutual interactions and by macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate. Accordingly, the present study investigates the dynamics of return and volatility spillovers between these two markets over the period 2006–2021 using monthly data. In this regard, total and frequency spillovers were first extracted using the Diebold–Yilmaz and Baruník–Křehlík spillover indices, and then the effects of macroeconomic variables on return and volatility spillovers were examined using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. The results indicate that the intensity of return and volatility spillovers between the stock and housing markets in Iran is generally limited, and that most of the dynamics of each market are driven by its own internal factors. However, frequency-domain analysis shows that return spillovers are more pronounced in the medium-term horizon, whereas volatility spillovers are relatively stronger in the short term. The findings also reveal that the housing market acts, to a limited extent, as a net receiver of return spillovers in the medium term, while the stock market is a net receiver of volatility spillovers in the short term. The results further suggest that exchange rate and inflation have more persistent explanatory power and statistical significance than interest rates in explaining return and volatility spillovers. Rising exchange rates and inflation, through intensifying inflation expectations and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty,
s
Zhowan daghigh; Mostafa baghbanyan; Abbas Memarnejad
Abstract
This study examines the threshold effects of the Human Development Index (HDI) and sustainable economic growth on the relationship between financial development and oil revenues in developing oil-exporting countries. Considering the central role of oil revenues in the economic structure of these countries ...
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This study examines the threshold effects of the Human Development Index (HDI) and sustainable economic growth on the relationship between financial development and oil revenues in developing oil-exporting countries. Considering the central role of oil revenues in the economic structure of these countries and the importance of financial development in the optimal allocation of resources, analyzing this nonlinear relationship is of particular significance. To this end, panel data for selected oil-exporting countries in the Middle East, including Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, during the period 1995–2024 were used. Financial development is considered as the dependent variable, while oil revenues, economic growth, capital stock, trade openness, the Human Development Index, and the sustainable economic growth index are treated as explanatory variables. To identify nonlinear behaviors and threshold effects, the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model was employed. Prior to model estimation, the Levin–Lin–Chu panel unit root tests indicated stationarity of all variables at levels, and the Kao panel cointegration test confirmed the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Moreover, the linearity test results rejected the linearity hypothesis, emphasizing the necessity of using the nonlinear PSTR model. The estimation results indicate that when the Human Development Index exceeds the estimated threshold, the effects of oil revenues, economic growth, capital stock, and trade openness on financial development are significantly strengthened.
elham bahrami; samad hekmati farid; yousef mohammadzadeh
Abstract
This study investigates the effects of price adjustment of subsidized goods (bread and cereals, sugar and sweets, and energy) on the welfare of urban households in Iran during 2007–2024. Using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SUR), demand ...
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This study investigates the effects of price adjustment of subsidized goods (bread and cereals, sugar and sweets, and energy) on the welfare of urban households in Iran during 2007–2024. Using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SUR), demand functions were estimated across expenditure deciles. Wald test results show that the homogeneity condition holds only for the bread equation, while the adding-up condition is confirmed for the system. Own-price elasticities are negative for all three groups, confirming the law of demand. Bread elasticity is inelastic across all deciles, ranging from -0.38 to -0.48. Energy elasticity ranges from -0.49 to -0.64, and sugar elasticity ranges from -0.10 to -0.14, both inelastic. Income elasticities indicate that bread (0.95-0.96) and energy (0.74-0.80) are necessities, while sugar (1.09-1.10) is relatively luxurious. Cross-price elasticity results show that bread has a weak substitution relationship with energy and a strong complementary relationship with sugar and sweets. Welfare indices (CV and EV) were calculated under 50% and 100% price increase scenarios. Results show that although absolute loss is higher for high-income households, the relative welfare burden is disproportionately imposed on low-income deciles (especially the first decile). Policy recommendations include targeted compensation for the first decile, gradual bread price reform, and support for vulnerable deciles.
GDP
Bagher Hesami Azizi
Abstract
Identifying the regimes governing a macroeconomy is a prerequisite for designing effective economic policies in developing economies. This study aims to identify and analyze Iran’s macroeconomic regimes and to derive corresponding policy implications using a nonlinear Markov–Switching model. ...
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Identifying the regimes governing a macroeconomy is a prerequisite for designing effective economic policies in developing economies. This study aims to identify and analyze Iran’s macroeconomic regimes and to derive corresponding policy implications using a nonlinear Markov–Switching model. The likely outlook of macroeconomic regimes over the 1404–1410 horizon is also examined. The main contribution of this paper lies in redefining the Markov–Switching model from a purely descriptive tool for business cycles into a forward-looking framework for policy design.Empirical findings indicate that Iran’s economy has fluctuated among three distinct regimes during the sample period: recession, moderate growth, and high growth. The transition matrix results show that low- and moderate-growth regimes exhibit greater persistence than the high-growth regime, reflecting the structural vulnerability of Iran’s economy to macroeconomic shocks and the limited sustainability of high-growth episodes. Forecast results further suggest that over the 1404–1410 horizon, the continuation of a moderate-growth regime accompanied by periodic fluctuations is the most likely macroeconomic scenario for Iran.From a policy perspective, the results underscore that the effectiveness of economic policies is regime-dependent, and that applying uniform policies across different conditions may exacerbate macroeconomic volatility. Accordingly, the design of countercyclical, stabilization, and precautionary policies tailored to prevailing regimes is essential to enhance macroeconomic resilience and stability. The findings provide an analytical basis for economic policymakers and support the alignment of policy choices with the country’s overarching development objectives.
