International Commerce
hana abolhasanbeigi; Alireza Kazerooni; Mahdi Barghi Oskooee; Hossein Asgharpur
Abstract
Inflation volatility is one of the characteristics of Iranian economy over the past four decades. Inflation volatility by creating macroeconomic instability can affect the relation of economic variables. The purpose of this study is the evaluation of the impact of nonlinear inflation volatility on the ...
Read More
Inflation volatility is one of the characteristics of Iranian economy over the past four decades. Inflation volatility by creating macroeconomic instability can affect the relation of economic variables. The purpose of this study is the evaluation of the impact of nonlinear inflation volatility on the relationships between the Iranian trade balance with the exchange rate during the 1973-2016. For this purpose, firstlyinflation volatility by using EGARCH method has been estimated and the model was estimated by Markov-switching model. The results show that the behavior of trade balance in Iran can be divided in 3 regimes (high, medium and low trade deficit). Increased exchange rate has induced the improvement of trade balance in 3 regimes. The effect of inflation volatility on the relationship of exchange rate to trade balance in the high and medium trade deficit regime is insignificant. Whereas in the regime 3 (low trade balance deficit) is negative and significant. So that in the regime 3(low trade deficit) inflation volatility has caused to debilitation of exchange rate effect on the trade balance and with the increase in inflation volatility exchange rate effect on the trade balance is further debilitation.
Export Diversification
hossein amiri; marjaneh beshkhoor
Volume 8, Issue 29 , December 2017, , Pages 127-144
Abstract
In this study, the effect of horizontal and vertical diversification policies on economic growth in Iran is investigated. The approach applied is Markov Switching regimes, for annual data series 1979-2015. The growth rates of horizontal and vertical diversification, consume expenditure, and investment ...
Read More
In this study, the effect of horizontal and vertical diversification policies on economic growth in Iran is investigated. The approach applied is Markov Switching regimes, for annual data series 1979-2015. The growth rates of horizontal and vertical diversification, consume expenditure, and investment as well as inflation rate are the variables which are used in this study. The results show that inflation rate, consume expenditure and vertical diversification growth have positive and significant effect, in both 0 and1 regimes, on economic growth. Furthermore, the horizontal diversification and investment growth also have positive effect on economic growth but only in 0 regime. Additionally, the predicted economic growth rate under three proposed scenarios, for 2016 and 2017 years, show that we can reach 8 percentage as medium growth rate in the sixth development program with emphasizing on vacant capacity, especially horizontal and vertical diversification policies.
Ali Mehdiloo; Hosein Sadeghi; Abas Assari Arani
Volume 5, Issue 18 , March 2015, , Pages 30-11
Abstract
The relation between rent-seeking opportunities and economic growth has been considered by many economists in past decades. They believe that rent-seeking opportunities are reducing economic growth with wasting and non-allocation of resource to productive activities and reducing motivation of entrepreneurship. ...
Read More
The relation between rent-seeking opportunities and economic growth has been considered by many economists in past decades. They believe that rent-seeking opportunities are reducing economic growth with wasting and non-allocation of resource to productive activities and reducing motivation of entrepreneurship. The purpose of this study is investigating the nonlinear effects of rent-seeking opportunities on economic growth in Iran. For this purpose, the trend of rent-seeking opportunities have been simulated by three input variables that include gap of official exchange rate, the ratio of building added value to GDP and the size of government using fuzzy logic in first step. Then, in the second step, nonlinearity relation is evaluated between rent-seeking (fuzzy output) and economic growth using Markov-Switching model. Experimental results showed that, rent-seeking opportunities have negative significant impact on economic growth in three regimes of the model. So that in the first regime that indicates economic boom (since the average of oil income is high) opportunities of rent-seeking by a cofficient of -36/44 has most negative impact and in the third regime that indicates recession (since the average of oil income is low) by a cofficient of -1/61 has lowest negative impact on economic growth.
