Economic Growth
ramiar refaei; morteza sameti; sara ghobadi
Abstract
The history of Iran's economy after the revolution has been in recession for some years and, with the 70s, this trend has deepened, and with the 1990s it seems that the real GDP trend is making serious changes. In this paper, the Markov chain Monte Carlo and Byesian approach are used to simulate the ...
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The history of Iran's economy after the revolution has been in recession for some years and, with the 70s, this trend has deepened, and with the 1990s it seems that the real GDP trend is making serious changes. In this paper, the Markov chain Monte Carlo and Byesian approach are used to simulate the effects of factors affecting the economic recession in Iran during the years 1979- 2016. The results show that the Bayesian approach confirm the results of the model estimation using the Monte Carlo Markov chain approach, and at a reliable level, 97.5% of the coefficients of the variables are statistically significant and reliable. so, the most influential variables were estimated on the economic recession in Iran, are exchange rate changes, crude oil prices, and real GDP. The results also show that the matrix of Bayes factors for all pairings of models is reliable. The later probabilities of regimes and the likelihood ratio indicate that the change points in the sixth model are different with the rest of the models, so the regime change is happening in the sixth model.
Mohammad Saeed Noori Naeini; Hesameddin Ghasemi; Maryam Sadat Kazemi Torbaghan
Volume 8, Issue 29 , December 2017, , Pages 45-60
Abstract
Nowadays, human development plays a key role in development studies. The man is the main pillar of sustainable development. Human development Index has been the most popular indicator of development. Knowing the variables involved in the estimation of human development index is essential in choosing ...
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Nowadays, human development plays a key role in development studies. The man is the main pillar of sustainable development. Human development Index has been the most popular indicator of development. Knowing the variables involved in the estimation of human development index is essential in choosing the appropriate model that can accurately measure the human development index. In this paper, we consider the uncertainty modeling framework for study of the factors that affect the human development index. For this purpose, we use the Bayesian model averaging which is appropriate with the assumption of model uncertainty. In this study, by estimating 960000 regression equations, five variables are identified as non-fragile variables which is mentioned as follows: growth of oil revenues, growth of government health expenditure, growth of primary education, inflation and capital stock. Other variables lost their effect in the presence of non--fragile variables. Therefore, it can be concluded that in order to raise the index of human development in the country, it is necessary to pay more attention to the mentioned variables.
s
mohamad ali ehsani; hadi keshavarz; Masoud Keshavarz
Volume 7, Issue 26 , February 2017, , Pages 125-144
Abstract
Monetary and fiscal policies are considered of high significance in the economic stabilization policies that are utilized to manage the demand side, but economic experts do not agree upon this policy and its results. This is worthwhile to mention that the source issues in the agreement or disagreement ...
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Monetary and fiscal policies are considered of high significance in the economic stabilization policies that are utilized to manage the demand side, but economic experts do not agree upon this policy and its results. This is worthwhile to mention that the source issues in the agreement or disagreement with this policy are the differences of opinions about the effects of this policy on the economy. This study attempts to investigate the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the labor market fluctuations via the adjustment to the new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in Iranian economy. After estimating the model using Bayesian approach, the model was simulated. The results of variance decomposition show that government employment was the largest role in explaining the fluctuations in unemployment and monetary shocks play the most important role in private sector employment. Impulser response functions also show that monetary shock, government employment shock and oil revenues shock reduce the total unemployment
Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash; Saber Molaee; Khadijeh Dinarzehi
Volume 4, Issue 16 , November 2014, , Pages 52-41
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of economic growth on coefficient of cardinal welfare in Iran’s economy. Hence, we employ the Bayesian approach and the estimation of forward and backward density functions in order to measure the effect of economic growth spillovers ...
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The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of economic growth on coefficient of cardinal welfare in Iran’s economy. Hence, we employ the Bayesian approach and the estimation of forward and backward density functions in order to measure the effect of economic growth spillovers on the social welfare. The paper has applied the Gibbs sampling algorithm which is a rigorous tool for forward simulation so as the results rising from this simulation indicate that there is a positive relationship between economic growth and welfare variables in Iran. It means that the flow of economic growth has had a positive impact on the rise of welfare in the country, such that the average of Bayesian coefficient is near to 0.17 per cent for the change of welfare during the period 1985- 2011. Accordingly, it is recommended that: 1- the policy makers should follow the growth-based strategies 2- the respective officials should identify the effective variables on growth in order to increase growth rate for the economy and eventually, 3- design more efficient institutions for the poor so as they enjoy greater gaining from the growth.
Saeed Moshiri; Sho'le Bagheri Pormehr; Hadi Mousavy nik
Volume 2, Issue 5 , March 2012, , Pages 90-69
Abstract
One of the problems in developing countries is unpleasant nexus between fiscal and monetary policies. Some of the economists believe that the main reason for inflation in such economies is monetaricizing of Government debt such as bounds. In this article it is tried to estimate the Degree of Fiscal Dominance ...
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One of the problems in developing countries is unpleasant nexus between fiscal and monetary policies. Some of the economists believe that the main reason for inflation in such economies is monetaricizing of Government debt such as bounds. In this article it is tried to estimate the Degree of Fiscal Dominance in Iran’s economy using General Equilibrium Dynamic Stochastic Model based on Bayesian approach. Our result reaches to 77 percent for fiscal dominance which shows a low degree of central bank independence. At the end the usefulness of the obtained results are examined using some indices.
