International Commerce
Azadeh Alikhani; Seyed Komeil Tayebi; saeed Daei-Karimzadeh
Abstract
Most of the countries using complicated multiple rate systems have been subject to inflationary pressures and to a more or less rapid rise in domestic costs and prices. Such an environment greatly complicates any exchange policy, because the exchange rate has to be adjusted frequently to keep an appropriate ...
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Most of the countries using complicated multiple rate systems have been subject to inflationary pressures and to a more or less rapid rise in domestic costs and prices. Such an environment greatly complicates any exchange policy, because the exchange rate has to be adjusted frequently to keep an appropriate relation between domestic and external costs and prices. Considering this, the present study examines the effects of exchange rate unification policy on the aggregate import price index from 1979 to 2023. For this purpose, the most influential variables affecting the aggregate import price index are first identified using the Time-Varying Parameters Dynamic Model Averaging (TVP_DMA) framework. Subsequently, Then, the impacts of exchange rate unification shocks on the aggregate import price index are examined within the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. The results indicate that exchange rate unification leads to an increase in the aggregate import price index, with significant short-term effects that gradually diminish over the long term. Additionally, higher instability in the foreign exchange market causes the nature of the impacts (both in terms of intensity and duration) on the aggregate import price index to differ compared to other periods.Keywords: Multiple Exchange Rates, Unification, The Aggregate Import Price Index, Shock, The Exchange Rate Pass-through.
s
Mostafa Eskandari; Abbas Memarnejad; Hoseini Seyed Shamsoldin
Abstract
Monetary policies are a set of decisions and actions of the country's monetary authorities to influence the level of economic activities. The aim of the present study was to analyze the convergence of optimal monetary policies in the Iranian economy and welfare using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ...
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Monetary policies are a set of decisions and actions of the country's monetary authorities to influence the level of economic activities. The aim of the present study was to analyze the convergence of optimal monetary policies in the Iranian economy and welfare using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. The research method is analytical-descriptive and applied. The implementation method was analyzed using data taken from the Statistical Center of Iran and the Central Bank. The results showed that this type of optimal monetary policies had a direct impact on the entire economy and welfare. The results showed that the Central Bank, by enacting optimal monetary policies, has created a significant impact on the rate of economic growth; during this period (1390-1401), economic growth has improved by 0.5%, 1.5% and 2%; Therefore, it can be stated that by adopting optimal monetary policies, total production increases and consequently the employment rate increases. The wage rate has been increasing; therefore, economic growth improves. By analyzing economic shocks, it can be stated that the entire economy is affected by these types of shocks; therefore, monetary policies should be adopted in a way that they do not have a negative impact on the economy. As stated in economic shocks, the shock caused by an increase in the exchange rate increases inflation and affects other economic variables. The shock caused by an increase in oil production and also increase in foreign assets cause economic growth.
Leila Sefidbari; Ali Davari; kamal Sakhdari; Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to investigate the causal relationships between entrepreneurship development, economic growth and unemployment by Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and to investigate the effects of shocks on these variables in Iran. For this purpose, seasonal time series data 2006-2016 and Global ...
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The purpose of this study was to investigate the causal relationships between entrepreneurship development, economic growth and unemployment by Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and to investigate the effects of shocks on these variables in Iran. For this purpose, seasonal time series data 2006-2016 and Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI) and Central Bank of Iran (CBI) were used. The findings of Granger-causality test show that a bilateral causality between economic growth and unemployment and a unidirectional causality from economic growth to entrepreneurship index were confirmed and there was no causality relation between entrepreneurship and unemployment in spite of correlation among them but, a third variable, GDP, is the cause of changes in both variables. According to analysis of impulse-response functions, only the shocks caused by entrepreneurship index are enduring in the model. Also, according to the result of variance decomposition, among three variables, the largest share in entrepreneurship changes is related to the entrepreneurship index itself. Therefore, it can be stated that only entrepreneurship policies can improve the component of entrepreneurship index.
