Mohammad Hassan Kheiravar; Davood Danesh Jafari; Hamid Nazeman; Javid Bahrami
Abstract
In significant part of oil-exporting countries, oil revenues are considered as one of the main drivers of the economy. However, these revenues are volatile, uncertain and subject to shocks due to exogenous nature and inherent volatility of oil prices as well as the reality of the hydrocarbon resources’ ...
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In significant part of oil-exporting countries, oil revenues are considered as one of the main drivers of the economy. However, these revenues are volatile, uncertain and subject to shocks due to exogenous nature and inherent volatility of oil prices as well as the reality of the hydrocarbon resources’ depletion. On the other hand, oil revenues are independent of the domestic economy as they are mainly derived from exports. This indicate that a significant part of the economy in these countries is exposed to potential instability, depending on the way and quality of these revenues’ management. This article examines the effect of oil revenue shocks on volatility of five macroeconomic variables, i.e. economic growth rate, inflation rate, real exchange rate, liquidity and government size, using panel var from selected oil-exporting countries over the period 2000-2019. The results show that oil instability shocks led to increase in instability of government size, liquidity and exchange rate. In addition, it first increase instability of inflation rate and economic growth rate but subsequently decrease these tow variables’ instability.
Ali Mohammadipour; Ali Salmanpourzonouz; Seyed Fakhreddin Fakhrhosseini
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of price shocks on selected energy carriers in household consumption basket and firm production functions (both supply and demand side of economy) simultaneously on macroeconomic of Iran. The stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model consisting ...
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The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of price shocks on selected energy carriers in household consumption basket and firm production functions (both supply and demand side of economy) simultaneously on macroeconomic of Iran. The stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model consisting of households, firms, foreign trade and government and central banks has been calibrated and simulated for the Iranian economy. The data related to the estimation of the research model were seasonally available for the period 1996-2006. The final model equations were linearized around the stable state using linearized stochastic equations by the method of Uhlig (1999: 40) as a spatially-state model in the Matlab programming environment. The results of the simulation and analysis of the model's immediate reaction functions show that all price shocks in selected energy carriers, while increasing production costs and creating inflationary conditions, reduce total consumption, total investment and total demand, and after reducing the production of non-oil products and total production, employment decreases. The results of variance analysis also show that most of the changes in employment (compared to production) are due to diesel fuel and electric shocks, respectively, so that 1,08 percent of employment changes (compared to non-oil production), due to diesel fuel shock and 1,01 percent due to electric shock. The severity of the adverse effects created at the employment level during the first 10 periods following the energy price shocks is significant, indicating the need to pay special attention to the unemployment rate when the subsidy targeting law is fully implemented.
ی
ehsan taheri; Hossein Sadeghi; lotfali agheli; alireza naseri
Abstract
Reduction in the access to health care services and spread of disease can have a negative effects on the economic growth and welfare of the community by reducing the labor force participation. Increasing government health expenditures is one of the ways to overcome these problems. However, implementing ...
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Reduction in the access to health care services and spread of disease can have a negative effects on the economic growth and welfare of the community by reducing the labor force participation. Increasing government health expenditures is one of the ways to overcome these problems. However, implementing this policy, along with its positive effects, will have a negative impact on the effective labor supply of other sectors. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate these effects using a computable general equilibrium model based on the 2011 social accounting matrix of Iran. The results showed that illness, reduced welfare and real GDP, but increasing government health expenditures, increased welfare in the short run and long run. Although effects on real GDP depend on the closure of labor market, so that in the situation of immobile labor force of the health sector, it is decreased, but with full labor mobility, it increased. So because of the positive welfare effects of government health expenditures, it is suggested that government still more invest in this sector. Also to reducing the costs and preventing the real GDP reduction it is necessary to provide the ground to increase labor force in the health sector in such a way as to the labor supply of other activities doesn’t decrease.
