s
davood farhadi; hossein ali danesh; Habib Ansari Samani; Hadi keshavarz
Abstract
Over the past decades, the economies of the world have continually experienced economic fluctuations, business cycles, and cycles of boom and recession. Fiscal rules are one of the most important tools of the government with the goal of stabilizing and reducing fluctuations during the business cycle. ...
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Over the past decades, the economies of the world have continually experienced economic fluctuations, business cycles, and cycles of boom and recession. Fiscal rules are one of the most important tools of the government with the goal of stabilizing and reducing fluctuations during the business cycle. It is always the minds of many policymakers who are involved in the question of how a policy should be considered during a period of boom or recession. In fact, policy makers are confronted with the question of whether fiscal rules should be used during business cycles. In response to this question, the present study uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and modeling the National Development Fund to scenario in two modes of applying counterycyclical fiscal rule and its non-implementation. The findings of the study showed that, in the case of petty impacts, a counterycyclical fiscal rule based on oil revenues has reduced the intensity of fluctuations of macroeconomic variables compared to the absence of a fiscal rule. Also, in the case of monetary impulse, there is not a significant difference in the effectiveness of the implementation of the fiscal rules or its non-implementation.
total factor productivity of production؛
Abolfazl Shah-Abadi; Sara Sari Gol
Volume 7, Issue 28 , September 2017, , Pages 141-164
Abstract
Oil plays an important role in financing the country and can be used as a positive tool for improving total factor productivity and can reduce technical gap with developed countries. But most of the oil countries with oil revenues, despite the considerable value of these resource revenues, do not have ...
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Oil plays an important role in financing the country and can be used as a positive tool for improving total factor productivity and can reduce technical gap with developed countries. But most of the oil countries with oil revenues, despite the considerable value of these resource revenues, do not have appropriate economic performance. Therefore, this study utilizes a system of simultaneous equations to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of oil on the economy's total factor productivity during the period 1978-2013. The results by 3SLS show, the direct effect of oil revenues on total factor productivity is negative and significant. Also the effect of oil revenues on the equations of human capital accumulation, domestic research and development accumulation and financial development equations are negative and significant and in the research and development spillovers of trade partners and information and communication technology accumulation equations are positive and non-significant. According to the results, the effect of human capital, domestic research and development accumulation, research and development spilloversof trade partners, and information and communication technology equations are positive and significant and the effect of financial development on total factor productivity is positive and non- significant. Therefore, it is expected that politicians and decision-makers with the management of appropriate resources (coordination of supply and demand side policies with a focus on the development of knowledge-based components market) take steps in order to create endogenous technical change and improve total factor productivity.
Saeed Shavvalpour; Armin Jabbarzadeh; Hossein Khanjarpanah
Volume 5, 17(3) , December 2015, , Pages 45-41
Abstract
Global market of strategic agricultural commodities such as soybean and wheat, is influenced by oil price fluctuations and this issue affects on policymakers and producers decisions. In this paper, with considering the importance of oil price shocks, it is tried to realize the impact of oil market risk ...
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Global market of strategic agricultural commodities such as soybean and wheat, is influenced by oil price fluctuations and this issue affects on policymakers and producers decisions. In this paper, with considering the importance of oil price shocks, it is tried to realize the impact of oil market risk on the agricultural commodities market. For this aim, daily returns of global price of soybean and wheat as the most important agricultural beans and Brent oil in the period of 1 May 2007 to end of 2014 are applied in modelling. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) with VECH, BEKK and CCC methods are applied for investigating of relationships between markets. The results specify that a long run relationship is existed between the studied markets. Also, CCC method has been the best method for risk spillover modelling, which its results show that positive and significant relationship is exited between crude oil and agricultural commodities markets.
