ali changi changi; hadi ghaffari
Abstract
ABSTRACT:one of the indicators that is currently considered in determining the level of development of a country is the amount of electricity consumption and its applications.Providing the needs of the industrial sector for energy,especially electricity, is undeniable and very important and is very effective ...
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ABSTRACT:one of the indicators that is currently considered in determining the level of development of a country is the amount of electricity consumption and its applications.Providing the needs of the industrial sector for energy,especially electricity, is undeniable and very important and is very effective in the process of growth, development and economic stability.In this study,using time series data and aggregate techniques in econometrics, especially dynamic auto regressive distributed lag models (ARDL) and error correction mechanism (ECM), long-term and short-term relationships of electricity demand model of the industrial sector are estimated. Based on the obtained results,The price elasticity of demand in the industrial sector is equal to 0.453 and it indicates that with a one percent increase in the price of electricity,the amount of demand decreases by 0.453 percent.Therefore, electricity is a low-elastic commodity, This means that the industrial sector is dependent on electricity and other energies cannot be a suitable alternative to it.The results show that all coefficients are significant at the levels of 5 and 10 percent. Also, the results show that the demand for electricity has an important role in the production of the industrial sector and ultimately the country's GDP, so that an increase of 1 unit (ten thousand kilowatt hours) in electricity consumption in the industrial sector can increase GDP by about 23,660 dollars.Keywords: Electricity Demand of Industrial Sector, Price of Energy Carriers, ARDL.
s
Mehdi Jalouli; Ahmad Sarlak; Hadi Ghafari; Mohamad Sadegh Horri
Abstract
In the present study, using a Structural macroeconometric model of econometric structure, the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth of major macroeconomic sectors in Iran during the period of 1976-2016 have been investigated. First, using the principal component analysis ...
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In the present study, using a Structural macroeconometric model of econometric structure, the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth of major macroeconomic sectors in Iran during the period of 1976-2016 have been investigated. First, using the principal component analysis method, an index for economic instability was created. In order to study the effect of this index, firstly, the data on exogenous variables were calculated using the predictive method and the ARIMA time series models, and in some cases also according to the average rate of the annual growth of that variable has been generated in several previous periods and then, with the change in each of the economic instability factors in 2018, the effect of this change on the intrinsic variables of the model (which includes the production of agricultural sectors, industries and mines, oil and gas, and services) was observed for the years 2018-2021. Any deviation in the process of moving the intrinsic variables of the pattern from the underlying trend is a result of economic instability on the variables studied. The results show that the lowest and the greatest gap (the effect of economic instability) between the underlying trend and the trend after economic instability is observed in the agricultural sector and the oil and gas sector.
Economic Growth
Behzad Maleki Hassanvand; Mohammad Jafari; Shahram Fatahi; Hadi Ghafari
Abstract
The aim of this paper is examining the simultaneous impact of good governance and government spending on economic growth in MENA countries. To estimate model, we've used GMM method during 2002-2016. The results show that good governance (weighted average of six indexes) and government spending ...
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The aim of this paper is examining the simultaneous impact of good governance and government spending on economic growth in MENA countries. To estimate model, we've used GMM method during 2002-2016. The results show that good governance (weighted average of six indexes) and government spending have positive and significant effect on economic growth. GDP last period and trade openness variable have positive and significant effect on economic growth. Inflation variable has negative and significant effect and private investment variable has positive and insignificant effect on economic growth. The effect of both economic growth and government spending is positive and significant. Good governance index resulted from combination of existing six indexes by Principle Components Model, has been estimated in another model and it indicates positive relationship with more effect on economic growth.
s
ali younessi; Hadi Ghafari; Mohammad Hossein Porkazemi; Farhad Khodadad Kashi
Volume 6, Issue 22 , January 2016, , Pages 164-145
Abstract
Increase in government spending can lead to increase in production, supply of public goods and services as well as utility. However, it should be noted that increasing the role of government in the economy will cause crowding out of the private sector and this will reduce the utility.
The present study ...
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Increase in government spending can lead to increase in production, supply of public goods and services as well as utility. However, it should be noted that increasing the role of government in the economy will cause crowding out of the private sector and this will reduce the utility.
The present study is looking for Iran's optimal growth rate of government's spending using time series data in the years 1978-2014. via a dynamic optimal control theory approach and the maximum principle.
The results show that, the optimal growth rate of government’s expenditure is 7% and the main factors affecting this rate is the ratio of private and public sector investment. Therefore, the current growth rate of government’s spending is not optimal and the government needs to control the growth rate of spending especially current expenditure.
