Economic Growth
Ahmed falih Abd Alhasan Alsaedi; Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri
Abstract
Oil is considered to be one of the most important sources of national wealth in the world, and recently, its price has fluctuated a lot, putting dependent oil-exporting countries at risk of economic instability. Therefore, the aim of this study is to compare the potential asymmetric effects of crude ...
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Oil is considered to be one of the most important sources of national wealth in the world, and recently, its price has fluctuated a lot, putting dependent oil-exporting countries at risk of economic instability. Therefore, the aim of this study is to compare the potential asymmetric effects of crude oil price fluctuations on real GDP growth in two neighboring Middle Eastern countries (Iran and Iraq). In this study, deviation from the average is considered as crude oil price fluctuations, and to estimate the long-term and short-term asymmetric effects of crude oil price fluctuations on the economic growth of two oil-exporting countries (Iran and Iraq) with two models, one and two, the approach of the autoregressive model with non-linear distribution breaks (NARDL) and the annual data of 1990-2022 were used. Asymmetric analysis provides significant results regarding the difference in economic growth responses to positive and negative crude oil price shocks. In the case of Iran, the response of real GDP to a positive oil shock is larger than to a negative oil shock in the long run. The results showed that although the increase in the price of oil in the short term increases the economic growth of Iran, the increase in the price of oil in the long term reduces the real growth of Iran. In addition, the negative shock of oil in the short and long term will reduce Iran's economic growth.
Economic Growth
Salman SotoodeNia; Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri; Seyed MohammadJavad Razmi; Seyed Mohammad FahimiFard
Abstract
In this study the effects of levying various green taxes (base, 5%, 10% and 20%) on Iran’s fossil energy consumption (oil gas (OG), natural gas (NG) and gasoline (GA)), pollutant gas emission and social welfare was studied using a Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model. ...
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In this study the effects of levying various green taxes (base, 5%, 10% and 20%) on Iran’s fossil energy consumption (oil gas (OG), natural gas (NG) and gasoline (GA)), pollutant gas emission and social welfare was studied using a Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model. In order to RDCGE calibration, the Iran’s social accounting matrix (SAM)) and base scenario was used. Required data was gathered from central bank of Iran (CBI), Iran’s statistic center and ministry of energy during 2008-2016 seasonality. Also, for data analyzing Matlab software was applied. Results indicate that in while increasing green tax, a positive shock of economic growth (1%), reduces the increasing trend of OG, NG and GA. Also, levying 0% and 5% green tax couldn’t make the consumption of mentioned energies efficient, levyeing 10% green tax makes the consumption of NG and GA efficient and levying 20% green tax makes the consumption of mentioned energies efficient. In addition, while increasing green tax, a positive shock of economic growth (1%), reduces the increasing trend of gas pullotants emission and in orther to decreasing gas pollutants emission during economic growth, 10% green tax should be levy. Finally, while increasing green tax from 0% to 5%, 10% and 20%, a positive shock of economic growth (1%) increases the social welfare, less than 1%, more than 1% and less than 1%, respectively. Therefore, between studied scenarios, levying 10% green tax is the best for increasing social welfare.
International Commerce
Farzaneh Ahmadian Yazdi; Mostafa Salimifar; Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri
Volume 5, Issue 20 , August 2015, , Pages 30-11
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of trade liberalization and economic growth on non-oil bilateral trade balance of Iran and China over the period 1981-2012. For checking the stationarity of the variables and validity of the obtained results, the Augmented Dicky-Fuller test (ADF) and Perrone structural ...
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This paper investigates the effects of trade liberalization and economic growth on non-oil bilateral trade balance of Iran and China over the period 1981-2012. For checking the stationarity of the variables and validity of the obtained results, the Augmented Dicky-Fuller test (ADF) and Perrone structural break test is employed respectively. To estimate the coefficients of the variables, ARDL model has been used. Using the framework of Oskooee and Brooks model, the findings of this paper show that increasing trade liberalization in short run and long run causes trade deficit for Iran. It means that from the view of demand side economists, higher trade liberalization deteriorates the trade balance of the country. Also, based on the obtained results, economic growth in both short run and long run has negative effect on non-oil bilateral trade balance of Iran and China. In addition, the real exchange rate has positive effect on the trade balance of Iran. It means that depreciation of national currency improves trade balance of Iran.
