s
Masoumeh Nouri; Mohammad Mahdi Askari; Kamran Nadri
Abstract
Abstract:This study aims to examine the impact of insurers’ investments on gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) in Iran. In this research, data are quarterly (semi-annual, i.e., every six months) for the period 1389–1402 (2010–2023) and analyzed using an autoregressive distributed lag ...
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Abstract:This study aims to examine the impact of insurers’ investments on gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) in Iran. In this research, data are quarterly (semi-annual, i.e., every six months) for the period 1389–1402 (2010–2023) and analyzed using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with distributed lags. The results indicate a long-run relationship among the variables, showing that insurers’ investments in long-term bank deposits, long-term investments, and high-turnover market investments positively and significantly enhance GFCF, while inflation, the exchange rate, and the price of gold have negative effects; notably, a one-percent rise in inflation is associated with a substantial decrease in GFCF. The study also emphasizes that the coefficient of determination is about 99%, indicating a high explanatory power of the model. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that the insurance sector can strengthen the country’s economic growth through higher GFCF, and it is recommended to direct insurance investments toward higher-yield assets, develop life insurance, boost sector competitiveness, and have the government implement supportive policies to improve the investment environment. Additionally, controlling inflation and reducing macroeconomic risks are essential to enhance the positive impact of the insurance sector on the economy..Keywords: ARDL Modelو Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Insurance, Money and Capital Market.
Kuznets Curve
Ramin Amani; Abbas Assari Arani
Abstract
The central question of this study is whether greater use of the Earth’s resources can raise countries’ levels of happiness. To answer it, the paper examines the relationship between ecological footprint and happiness for two groups of countries—OECD and Middle Eastern—using a ...
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The central question of this study is whether greater use of the Earth’s resources can raise countries’ levels of happiness. To answer it, the paper examines the relationship between ecological footprint and happiness for two groups of countries—OECD and Middle Eastern—using a dynamic panel model estimated by standard and two-step generalized method of moments over 2014–2024. The dependent variable is the Happiness Index, and the regressors include per capita ecological footprint and its squared term, the Human Development Index, general government expenditure, and institutional quality. The first lag of happiness is positive and statistically significant in both groups, confirming strong persistence, which is more pronounced in Middle Eastern countries. For OECD members, the ecological footprint has a negative coefficient while its squared term is positive, yielding a standard U-shaped relationship: higher resource use at low and medium levels reduces happiness, but beyond a threshold of about two global hectares per capita, additional use raises happiness. For Middle Eastern countries, the ecological footprint enters with a positive coefficient and its squared term with a negative coefficient, implying an inverted U-shape with a turning point around 2.5 global hectares per capita; greater resource use increases happiness only up to this level, after which its effect becomes negative. Overall, the results indicate that exploiting the Earth’s resources can support sustainable happiness only when accompanied by human development, effective governance, and sound, forward-looking and environmentally responsible resource management over time.
Income inequality
Amin ShahbabayeAshtiani; MohammadJavad Sharifzadeh
Abstract
This study applies a static, non-behavioral microsimulation model using Iran’s Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 1402 (2023/24) to evaluate the redistributive implications of moving from schedular (source-based) income taxation to a comprehensive personal income tax (PIT) under three ...
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This study applies a static, non-behavioral microsimulation model using Iran’s Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 1402 (2023/24) to evaluate the redistributive implications of moving from schedular (source-based) income taxation to a comprehensive personal income tax (PIT) under three scenarios. Scenario 1 represents separate taxation of distinct income sources, mirroring the fragmented regime. Scenario 2 aggregates taxable income sources under the PIT framework proposed in the Direct Taxes Law Reform Bill. Scenario 3 combines the PIT with a redistributive policy that allocates the incremental revenue from integration to targeted cash transfers for households below the relative poverty line. Relative to the pre-tax baseline (Gini = 0.3677), Scenario 1 reduces inequality by 2.7 percent, lowering the Gini to 0.3576. Scenario 2 delivers a larger but still modest effect, reducing the Gini by 4.9 percent to 0.3490. In contrast, Scenario 3 yields a sizeable redistributive impact: the Gini declines by 15.9 percent to 0.3090. The results indicate that the fragmented system exhibits limited progressivity—particularly at the top of the distribution—and that tax-base integration alone is unlikely to generate substantial redistribution. Meaningful inequality reduction requires complementary reforms, including a more progressive design of deductions and exemptions within the PIT, targeted allocation of incremental revenues to anti-poverty transfers, and strengthened data transparency and enforcement to expand coverage of informal and underreported incomes.
Co2 Emissions
nastaran bahmaei; Fatimah Hosseinpour; motamedi sahar; amin Tabae Izady
Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between renewable energy consumption and production, environmental pollutants, and social development in member countries of OECD and OPEC over the period 1990–2020. Using panel data and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test, it examines the role of ...
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This study investigates the relationship between renewable energy consumption and production, environmental pollutants, and social development in member countries of OECD and OPEC over the period 1990–2020. Using panel data and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test, it examines the role of social development in facilitating the transition from fossil fuel-based energy consumption to cleaner energy sources. The Social Development Index (SDI) is constructed by aggregating fifteen indicators related to demographics, education, health, and access to technology, reflecting both societal capacity and welfare outcomes. The findings indicate that in OECD countries, a robust bidirectional causal relationship exists between SDI and renewable energy consumption (REC), meaning that improvements in social development promote higher renewable energy use, while the expansion of renewable energy, in turn, reinforces social development indicators. Furthermore, social development in these countries is significantly associated with better control of CO₂ emissions. In contrast, OPEC countries show no statistically significant causality between SDI and REC or SDI and CO₂ emissions. The only meaningful link is a unidirectional causality from CO₂ emissions to REC, suggesting that rising pollution levels provoke a reactive increase in renewable energy adoption rather than proactive social development-driven change. These contrasting patterns underscore the importance of social development levels, institutional maturity, and the integration of social and environmental dimensions in shaping energy transition processes. Overall, this research emphasizes that integrating social development and sustainable energy policies is crucial for successful energy transitions and effective reduction of environmental pollutants.
بازار سرمایه
Jahangir Fatehi; Amad Naghiloo; mohammad dalmanpour; Ashkan rahimzadeh
Abstract
In this paper, the effects of the decline in global oil prices on the macro - economic variables of Iran have been analyzed by designing a dynamic global economic balance model with respect to banking sector and credit risk of bul lion. based on the results of modeling for the iranian economy, the decrease ...
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In this paper, the effects of the decline in global oil prices on the macro - economic variables of Iran have been analyzed by designing a dynamic global economic balance model with respect to banking sector and credit risk of bul lion. based on the results of modeling for the iranian economy, the decrease in oil prices increases the exchange rate and reduces the demand for imported goods, which in the short term, through substitution effect, boosts domestic production and employment of unemployed people on a temporary basis. However, the drop in oil production and the monetary base constraint and the reduction in lending reduce total production in the subsequent period. on the other hand, inflation has increased temporarily, first because of increased demand for domestic production and then it has decreased because of the recession in the economy. the ability of firms to repay the received facilities is reduced and debt default is increased by reducing production followed by decreasing revenue. This would reduce the profitability of banks, which would limit the supply of credit more severely and weaken production and employment more severely. This cycle, combined with falling tax revenues, is pushing the economy into a sustained recession. Accordingly, dependence on oil and credit risk exacerbate the vulnerability of the economy. based on the results, it is suggested to increase economic resilience by adding to income sources, strengthening of waste sectors, and improving bank risk management.
توسعه مالی
Somayeh Azami; Alireza Nokani
Abstract
Financial development plays an important role in economic development and growth. But the question is what effect does financial development have on the quality of the environment? The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of different indicators of financial development on carbon dioxide ...
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Financial development plays an important role in economic development and growth. But the question is what effect does financial development have on the quality of the environment? The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of different indicators of financial development on carbon dioxide emissions. Considering different financial development indicators, using principal component analysis (PCA), a composite index of financial development is constructed. The biggest role in the construction of the main component is the index of the percentage of bank deposits to GDP. The estimation of linear and non-linear ARDL model shows that renewable energy significantly leads to reduction of emissions and improvement of environmental quality, and Kuznets environmental curve is confirmed in Iran. Also, financial development has a long-run effect on carbon dioxide emissions. The Non-linear ARDL results indicate that the positive shock of financial development leads to a significant increase in carbon dioxide emissions, but the negative shock of financial development does not have a significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, financial development in Iran has not yet led to the achievement of environmentally friendly technologies, and considering the role and importance of financial development in economic growth and development, it is recommended to produce and consume renewable energy along with financial development in Iran to neutralize the effects of The negative environmental impact of financial development should be increased to achieve sustainable development.
Abstract
This study analyzes the impact of business cycles in the production sector on wealth inequality in 7 middle east oil countries over the period 2005–2023, using the PMG-ARDL model. To extract business cycle fluctuations, the asymmetric time-varying Christiano–Fitzgerald (CF) filter is employed, ...
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This study analyzes the impact of business cycles in the production sector on wealth inequality in 7 middle east oil countries over the period 2005–2023, using the PMG-ARDL model. To extract business cycle fluctuations, the asymmetric time-varying Christiano–Fitzgerald (CF) filter is employed, which allows for precise separation of short-term cyclical components from long-term economic trends. The PMG-ARDL model enables the investigation of the short and long-run effects of business cycles on wealth inequality. The findings reveal that, for the wealthiest groups (top 1% and top 10%), the business cycles have positive and significant effect on wealth share. In contrast, the middle and lower-income groups (middle 40% and bottom 50% wealth shares) the impact of business cycles is negative. Moreover, inflation exhibits heterogeneous effect across different social strata: this variable has positive effect on inequality among the upper classes, but exert significantly negative impacts on the lower classes, reflecting structural disparities and varied economic resilience. These results align with Piketty’s theory regarding the dominance of capital returns over economic growth, implying that growth without adequate redistributive policies may aggravate inequality. Based on these findings, policymakers are advised to prioritize smart taxation, strengthened social safety nets, and sustainable job creation for vulnerable groups to reduce inequality and enhance social welfare.
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