Dynamic Panel Data
Mohammad Reza Lotfalipour; Mohammad Hossein Mahdavi Adeli
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, Pages 17-38
Abstract
Due to limitation of energy resources and its importance in the supply chain as the final products for consumers and inputs for manufacturers on the one hand, and On the other hand, due to the large fluctuations in prices and increased greenhouse gas emissions conservation policies and factors affecting ...
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Due to limitation of energy resources and its importance in the supply chain as the final products for consumers and inputs for manufacturers on the one hand, and On the other hand, due to the large fluctuations in prices and increased greenhouse gas emissions conservation policies and factors affecting supply and demand in recent decades have been considered by the scientific and policy communities. In this study, the relationship between energy consumption, export and economic growth in the industrial sector of the Iranian economy has been tested.For this purpose, the panel data of energy consumption, export and value added of the industrial sector in the ISIC 2-digit level detail over the years 2002 to 2012 were used. To study causality and dynamics between variables in the industrial sector the Toda-Yamamoto causality and vector error correction model were used. The results show bidirectional short-run, long-run and strong causality between variables, Except for one case that from exports to energy consumption and economic growth in the short run, there is no causality.
International Commerce
khadijeh nasrollahi; karim azarbaiejani; mohammadreza zeinolabedini
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, Pages 39-54
Abstract
The aim of this study has been to evaluate the club convergence between Iran and its trading partners over the period 1978-2013. For this purpose, this paper has used log(t) test with the limited dependent variable. Then,by using a sequential dependent variable model, factors affecting the formation ...
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The aim of this study has been to evaluate the club convergence between Iran and its trading partners over the period 1978-2013. For this purpose, this paper has used log(t) test with the limited dependent variable. Then,by using a sequential dependent variable model, factors affecting the formation of these club has been investigated and identified. According to estimated model in the form of panel data, a convergence club income between Iran and some of its trading partners has been confirmed. The results show that there are the potential for income convergence of Iran and Belize, Algeria, Egypt, Fiji, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Kiribati, Morocco, Nicaragua, Swaziland, Thailand, Tonga, Tunisia and Vietnam countries and they can form an effective economic block, and strength their internal relationships in order to achieve higher economic growth and faster convergence.
Economic Growth
Morteza Salehi Sarbijan
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, Pages 55-68
Abstract
Economic growth forecast is a major problem in economy that has a significant impact in government policy and economic planning. It also helps policy makers for future decisions. Multivariate econometric forecasting models associated with many limitations, so an alternative approach is the use of univariate ...
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Economic growth forecast is a major problem in economy that has a significant impact in government policy and economic planning. It also helps policy makers for future decisions. Multivariate econometric forecasting models associated with many limitations, so an alternative approach is the use of univariate models, but most of these methods need a lot of data to achieve the best result. In this study, data from 1959 to 2005 were used to estimate the models. Then the performances of auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the economic growth forecast of Iran was evaluated and compared with Markov switching method and fuzzy neural network (ANFIS) for the period from 2006 to 2013 using the Criteria RMSE, MAE and MAPE. Results showed that ANFIS model had the best performance. Furthermore, Markov switching method was more suitable than ARIMA model.
توسعه مالی
Sadegh Ali Movahed Manesh
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, Pages 69-82
Abstract
Financial markets is one of the most important mechanisms to attract investment and efficient distribution of assets by transferring savings to investment.Given the importance of insurance in the country's economic activities, the effect of insurance industry on the GDP of Iran is calculated. Thus the ...
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Financial markets is one of the most important mechanisms to attract investment and efficient distribution of assets by transferring savings to investment.Given the importance of insurance in the country's economic activities, the effect of insurance industry on the GDP of Iran is calculated. Thus the insurance penetration rate and degree of trade openness on GDP in Iran during 1971-2013 were examined. The generalized model of Avram (2010) were used. Long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables of the model was confirmed by Johansen-Juselius tests. According to GMM, the results showed a positive effect of country's insurance penetration rate on the GDP of Iran.
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MohammadAli Maghsoudpour
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, Pages 83-106
Abstract
This paper uses the endogenous growth model and the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Method (ARDL), has been done during 1976 to 2014. To measure the distribution of the population, provincial capitals were selected. Then using Herfindahl -Hirschman Index (HHI), their population distribution calculated ...
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This paper uses the endogenous growth model and the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Method (ARDL), has been done during 1976 to 2014. To measure the distribution of the population, provincial capitals were selected. Then using Herfindahl -Hirschman Index (HHI), their population distribution calculated and as an index of heterogeneousdistribution of population has been added to the economic model of endogenous growth. The results show a negative impact of uneven distribution of population on economic growth of Iran. According to the results, the application of the policies of decentralization and balanced distribution of the population recommended.
Dynamic Panel Data
Abbas Mirzaei; Reza Esfanjari Kenari; Abolfazl Mahmoodi; Mehdi Shabanzadeh
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, Pages 107-118
Abstract
One of the major concerns for the future of human is living conditions on Earth. Environmental degradation by humans has caused to climate change in addition to vast reduction of natural resources. Recognition of environmental problems and factors is the first step in maintaining desirable biological ...
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One of the major concerns for the future of human is living conditions on Earth. Environmental degradation by humans has caused to climate change in addition to vast reduction of natural resources. Recognition of environmental problems and factors is the first step in maintaining desirable biological conditions. Accordingly, in present study, was investigated the effect of shadow economy on environmental pressures and also the role of political and administrative corruption level in this regard. For this purpose, the pressure on nature was measured by sum of energy, mineral, net forest depletions and carbon dioxide damage. Also, panel data of 15 MENA countries from 1999 to 2013 were used to test this relationship. The result showed that relationship between the shadow economy and the environmental pressure is positive and significant. As, a 1% increase in the size of shadow economy increases the pressure on nature to 3.19%. Also, the result showed that the relationship between the size of shadow economy and the pressure on nature are dependent on the levels of countries corruption, so that increase in the corruption level increases the effect of shadow economy on environmental pressures. Therefore, production in the shadow economy of countries causes failure to comply environmental regulations by firms and increase of environmental pressures.
International Commerce
Ebrahim Anvari; Ahmad Salahmanesh; Majid Sheikh Ansari; Mahvash Moradi
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, Pages 119-132
Abstract
Investigating the effect of government corruption and financial liberalization on economic growth is a fundamental issue in recent economic literature. However, considering these two phenomena simultaneously have been ignored by researchers. This paper, empirically and theoretically, studies how negative ...
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Investigating the effect of government corruption and financial liberalization on economic growth is a fundamental issue in recent economic literature. However, considering these two phenomena simultaneously have been ignored by researchers. This paper, empirically and theoretically, studies how negative effect of corruption can be affected by financial liberalization. The results show that, by liberalizing financial account, high corrupt countries levy more taxes and therefore the negative effect of corruption on economic growth intensified. In empirical model, we include OPEC countries for the duration of 1990-2013. Estimation results by GMM method show that the negative signs of the interaction between financial liberalization and corruption imply that the partial impact of financial openness on economic growth decreases as the degree of corruption increases.
Economic Growth
Hossein Ostadi
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, Pages 133-144
Abstract
Economic growth is one of the most important goals of macroeconomics in current communities and its rate shows the rate of increase or reduction of GDP and improvement or reduction rate of welfare of people. This study evaluates the important factors of economic growth in Iran based on the effects of ...
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Economic growth is one of the most important goals of macroeconomics in current communities and its rate shows the rate of increase or reduction of GDP and improvement or reduction rate of welfare of people. This study evaluates the important factors of economic growth in Iran based on the effects of subsidy targeting plan. The study period is 1991-2012 and the study variables are including time series of Iran economy. After performing unit root test and evaluation of the stationary of variables based on Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF), the model coefficients are estimated by concurrent equations system and Two-Stage Least Square Method (2SLS) in Eviews software. The study findings show that value added of various economic sectors has positive and significant impact on GDP and economic growth. As the government size is evaluated by government costs to GDP ratio, the coefficient of government expenditures variable is negative and significant at level 6% statistically. The coefficient of public level variable of prices is negative and significant and it shows that inflation phenomenon and increasing the price of energy carriers increase production costs in short-term and GDP growth rate is reduced. The elimination of paid subsidies to manufactures and increases of production costs of economic enterprises and serious economic sanctions reduce economic growth rate.
Energy
Mehdi Sadeghi Shahdani
Volume 6, Issue 24 , September 2016, Pages 145-156
Abstract
Since efficiency improvements may be viewed as a form of technical change that both reduces the effective cost of energy services and stimulates economic activity, energy demand may, under some circumstances ,rise even as energy productivity improves. This paper examines this hypothesis using a simple ...
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Since efficiency improvements may be viewed as a form of technical change that both reduces the effective cost of energy services and stimulates economic activity, energy demand may, under some circumstances ,rise even as energy productivity improves. This paper examines this hypothesis using a simple model that distinguishes the roles of energy and energy services in production activities. This paper considers a model of economicgrowth where improvements in energy efficiencyconstitute a form of technicalchange that stimulates increased levels of capitalinvestment and economic activity. The model examined here include energy services, notenergy per se, in the aggregate productionfunction. A structure is specified in which energyservices are produced using both energyand non-energy inputs like capital stock. In this model, improvedenergy efficiency entails increased energyuse only if (i) energy accounts for a largefraction of the total cost of energy services and(ii) the production of energy services constitutes a substantial fraction of economic activity. The theoretical model examined in this paper employs a number of simplifying assumptions that might be generalized in future research. The model’s focus on the Cobb-Douglas production function, where the elasticity of substitution between energy services and other inputs is set equal to one, constitutes something of a special case. The Cobb-Douglas functional form is useful because it permits the analysis of closed-form solutions to the model. Relaxing this assumption is unlikely to affect the insights that emerge by developing the distinction between energy use and energy services. According to the model justified for Iran , improvements in energy will cause a net increase in energy use and economic activity. Additionally , changes in the cost of energy services have identical impacts on capital accumulation and long run economic growth. Changes in unit cost will have major impacts on aggregate economic activity if energy services constitute a large share of gross output.
