Payame Noor University Economic Growth and Development Research 2228-5954 10 38 2020 03 20 The Study of the Effects of Economic Instability on the Production of Major Sectors of Economy in Iran The Study of the Effects of Economic Instability on the Production of Major Sectors of Economy in Iran 118 99 6141 10.30473/egdr.2019.45196.5143 FA Mehdi Jalouli Ph.D. Student of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran Ahmad Sarlak Assistant Professor, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran Hadi Ghafari Associate Professor, Payame Noor University, Iran Mohamad Sadegh Horri Associate Professor, Department of Management, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran Journal Article 2019 03 21 In the present study, using a Structural macroeconometric model of econometric structure, the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth of major macroeconomic sectors in Iran during the period of 1976-2016 have been investigated. First, using the principal component analysis method, an index for economic instability was created. In order to study the effect of this index, firstly, the data on exogenous variables were calculated using the predictive method and the ARIMA time series models, and in some cases also according to the average rate of the annual growth of that variable has been generated in several previous periods and then, with the change in each of the economic instability factors in 2018, the effect of this change on the intrinsic variables of the model (which includes the production of agricultural sectors, industries and mines, oil and gas, and services) was observed for the years 2018-2021. Any deviation in the process of moving the intrinsic variables of the pattern from the underlying trend is a result of economic instability on the variables studied. The results show that the lowest and the greatest gap (the effect of economic instability) between the underlying trend and the trend after economic instability is observed in the agricultural sector and the oil and gas sector. In the present study, using a Structural macroeconometric model of econometric structure, the effects and consequences of economic instability on economic growth of major macroeconomic sectors in Iran during the period of 1976-2016 have been investigated. First, using the principal component analysis method, an index for economic instability was created. In order to study the effect of this index, firstly, the data on exogenous variables were calculated using the predictive method and the ARIMA time series models, and in some cases also according to the average rate of the annual growth of that variable has been generated in several previous periods and then, with the change in each of the economic instability factors in 2018, the effect of this change on the intrinsic variables of the model (which includes the production of agricultural sectors, industries and mines, oil and gas, and services) was observed for the years 2018-2021. Any deviation in the process of moving the intrinsic variables of the pattern from the underlying trend is a result of economic instability on the variables studied. The results show that the lowest and the greatest gap (the effect of economic instability) between the underlying trend and the trend after economic instability is observed in the agricultural sector and the oil and gas sector. https://egdr.journals.pnu.ac.ir/article_6141_1e973222013629015f381dbfd1b7a05e.pdf