Payame Noor University Economic Growth and Development Research 2228-5954 8 30 2018 03 21 A Review of Electricity Generation Trends: Deviation from Optimal Scenario A Review of Electricity Generation Trends: Deviation from Optimal Scenario 67 82 3292 FA Davood Manzoor Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Imam Sadigh University, Tehran, Iran Vahid Aryanpur M.A. in Energy, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran Journal Article 2016 12 03 This paper mainly focuses on the development of electricity supply system in Iran. A bottom-up energy system model is employed to identify the optimal generation mix. The model minimizes the total system costs using linear mix-integer programming under a set of technical, economic and environmental constraints. Then, the optimal generation mix is compared with the actual transition pathway during the planning horizon. The comparison of historical development trend with the optimal scenario (model results) indicates that: 1- The average efficiency of thermal power plants is 4.5 percent lower than the optimal conditions, 2- Optimal pathway could save 90 billion cubic meters of natural gas and prevent CO2 emissions of 400 million tonnes over the study period, and 3- The annual additional costs of $630 million was imposed due to lack of funding. This paper mainly focuses on the development of electricity supply system in Iran. A bottom-up energy system model is employed to identify the optimal generation mix. The model minimizes the total system costs using linear mix-integer programming under a set of technical, economic and environmental constraints. Then, the optimal generation mix is compared with the actual transition pathway during the planning horizon. The comparison of historical development trend with the optimal scenario (model results) indicates that: 1- The average efficiency of thermal power plants is 4.5 percent lower than the optimal conditions, 2- Optimal pathway could save 90 billion cubic meters of natural gas and prevent CO2 emissions of 400 million tonnes over the study period, and 3- The annual additional costs of $630 million was imposed due to lack of funding. https://egdr.journals.pnu.ac.ir/article_3292_054962b3f44797f9cac67dcb2789a338.pdf