Ebrahim Nasirifar; Ebrahim Hojabr Kiani; Seyed Shamsodin Hossaini; Farhad Ghaffari
Abstract
The basic metals industry is one of the most important national production industries, which includes approximately 20 percent of the industrial productions as well as 13 percent of the employment in Iran's industry. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short-run and long-run and asymmetric ...
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The basic metals industry is one of the most important national production industries, which includes approximately 20 percent of the industrial productions as well as 13 percent of the employment in Iran's industry. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short-run and long-run and asymmetric effects of positive and negative monetary shocks through monetary policy transmission channels that including exchange rates, lending and credit and interest rates on the production and employment of this industry, which evaluated by Non-linear Auto Regressive Distribution Lag (NARDL) model, seasonally since 1997 to 2018. The effects of monetary shocks are classified in to two groups: positive and negative shocks by using Hodrick-Prescott filter. The outputs indicate that the monetary shocks are more effective on the production of basic metals industry than its employment in a long- run. Also effects of negative monetary shocks on the employment in this industry are more considerable than positive shocks during a short-run. In the end, the asymmetric effect of monetary shocks on the production of this industry is confirmed.
Saeed i Rasekh; Milad Shahrazi; Mohamad Reza Abdollahi
Volume 2, Issue 7 , September 2012, , Pages 90-81
Abstract
This paper examines asymmetric impact of exchange rate and its risk (volatility) on Iran’s non oil export. The asymmetric effect indicates to differently affect exchange rate and its volatility on export at periods of exchange rate moving up and down. To test this hypothesis, we have first measured ...
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This paper examines asymmetric impact of exchange rate and its risk (volatility) on Iran’s non oil export. The asymmetric effect indicates to differently affect exchange rate and its volatility on export at periods of exchange rate moving up and down. To test this hypothesis, we have first measured the volatility by using exponential GARCH and then we’ve estimated the export equation including the volatility during time period 1959-2007. Based on the results, the effect of exchange rate on the export is positive and asymmetric. Also, the volatility of exchange rate has a negative and an asymmetric effect. So, the hypothesis is verified. This may be due to the asymmetric feeling of exporters about the risk and reflect their anti risk behavior. Based on the results, economic policy makers should make different policies while exchange rate moving down compared with its moving up in order to minimize the negative effects of the volatility.
