Monetary Shocks
Niloofar Sadat Hosseini; Hossein Asgharpur
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to study Taylor's theory and investigating the effect of monetary shocks on macroeconomic variables assuming the degree of exchange rate pass-through in different inflationary environments. In this study, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy ...
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The purpose of this study is to study Taylor's theory and investigating the effect of monetary shocks on macroeconomic variables assuming the degree of exchange rate pass-through in different inflationary environments. In this study, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy has been used. In this framework, effects of monetary shock were investigated in Iran during 1988:1˗2014:4. and the inflation regimes and the degree of exchange rate pass-through have been investigated using a smooth transmission regression model. The empirical findings show that Taylor's hypothesis is confirmed. In other hands, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is high in an economy with high inflation. Due to a monetary shock, volatility of macroeconomic variables is high, assuming a high degree of exchange rate pass-through in the inflationary environments.
Mohammad Hassan Fotros; Hossein Tavakolian; Reza Maaboudi
Volume 5, Issue 19 , June 2015, , Pages 94-73
Abstract
This paper studies impacts of monetary and fiscal shocks on macroeconomic variables in Iran. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach is employed to sketch an appropriate model for Iranian economy. To calculate the required coefficients, data of the period 1961-2012 released ...
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This paper studies impacts of monetary and fiscal shocks on macroeconomic variables in Iran. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach is employed to sketch an appropriate model for Iranian economy. To calculate the required coefficients, data of the period 1961-2012 released by the Central Bank of Iran are gathered. In order to take in consideration the Iranian economic characteristics, oil revenues, sticky prices, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and technology are considered in the model. Results indicate that technological shocks increase non oil production, private investment consumption, and GDP. So, technological shocks increase economic growth and reduce inflation. Increase in oil revenues promotes non-oil production, private consumption, government expenditure, and private investment. So, in short run, the impact of oil shock on economic growth is positive. But oil shock increases inflation via an increase in money base. Monetary shocks (increase in money base) increase internal consumption and money liquidity (the inflation) and somehow the GDP. But, monetary shocks have small effects on the non oil production. In sum, monetary shock has a small positive impact on economic growth. So, in short run, money neutrality hypothesis cannot be retained. Also, government expenditure shock increases government expenditures, private consumption, and decreases private investment. In sum, government expenditure shock has a positive effect on production, inflation and economic growth.
