s
Ahmad Ali Asadpour
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of uncertainty in inflation, bank finance, bank interest rates, liquidity, stock prices, price index and GDP on housing prices in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, seasonal data has been used during the period 1991 to 2013. EGARCH pattern (1,1) ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of uncertainty in inflation, bank finance, bank interest rates, liquidity, stock prices, price index and GDP on housing prices in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, seasonal data has been used during the period 1991 to 2013. EGARCH pattern (1,1) as an estimation of AR (4) residues for inflation is used as a substitute for inflation uncertainty measurement, and a short-term model and long-term relationships between research variables have been set. The results of short-term model and long-run pattern show that uncertainty regarding inflation, interest rate, liquidity, GDP and national income have a positive and significant effect on housing prices. Indeed, stock prices and housing finance have a negative and significant effect on housing prices. It is noteworthy to state that there are different sensitivities to housing prices in most variables, such as household income per capita, liquidity, and stock price index in the long term and short-term; so that, according to the theory, the elasticity of house prices relative to household income per capita, the volume of money and the stock price index in the long run is more than short-term. The results of the estimation of the error correction model indicate that in each period, about one fourth of the imbalance of dependent variable of its long-term equilibrium values over a period is moderated and eliminated in the subsequent period. In other words, if any shock or inequilibrium occurs in housing prices, it will return to equilibrium after four periods.
