s
yazdan gudarzi farahani; Zoleikha Morsali Arzanagh; Mohsen Mehrara; ebrahim abbasi
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to investigate the effects of uncertainty of economic policies in business cycles on macroeconomic variables. In this study, a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium approach and statistical data for the period 1370-1401 have been used. In this study, based on the analysis ...
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The purpose of this article is to investigate the effects of uncertainty of economic policies in business cycles on macroeconomic variables. In this study, a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium approach and statistical data for the period 1370-1401 have been used. In this study, based on the analysis of the period of boom and recession, the shock from the uncertainty component of economic policy in this period was investigated on macroeconomic variables. The obtained results have shown that during the boom period, the effects of economic policy uncertainty shock on variables such as production, investment, and consumption were less than during the recession period, and during the recession period, the negative effect of this shock on the mentioned variables was more severe. In addition to this, the effect of economic policy uncertainty shock on the variables of inflation rate, interest rate and exchange rate has also been positive during economic boom and recession and has led to an increase in these nominal variables.
Monetary policy
Mohammad Lashkary; Mehdi Behname; maliheh hassani
Volume 6, Issue 23 , May 2016, , Pages 130-115
Abstract
Today in all countries one of the macroeconomic objectives is achieving an acceptable level of labor employment, for that must be regarded capacities and relative advantages for each of the economic sectors. Due to the importance and share of services sector of total employment and exchange rate volatility ...
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Today in all countries one of the macroeconomic objectives is achieving an acceptable level of labor employment, for that must be regarded capacities and relative advantages for each of the economic sectors. Due to the importance and share of services sector of total employment and exchange rate volatility in recent years in Iran; the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on employment for services sector in Iran from 1974 to 2012. The ARCH approach used for estimating real exchange rate uncertainty and ARDL model for employment pattern. According to research results, the real exchange rate uncertainty has a positive impact on employment in services sector in Iran; because the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on employment in agricultural and industry sectors is negative. So the labor departed from agriculture and industry will transfer to services sector. Relationship between added value and per capita capital on employment in this sector is negative, that indicates labor and capital are replaced for each other in which capital replaced for labor in both short and long term. Import of services has positive effect and export of services has negative impact on employment in services sector.
Abolghasem Esnaashari; Mohammad Hossein Pourkazemi; Asghar Abolhasani Hastiani; Ahmad Lotfi Mazraeshahi
Volume 3, Issue 12 , November 2013, , Pages 88-75
Abstract
The internal saving in a country, is the most important source for financing and economic growth. These savings are confronted with risk of a volatile rate of return to capital. The uncertainty in the rate of return on capital may lead to distorted economic decisions by the savers, consumers and investors. ...
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The internal saving in a country, is the most important source for financing and economic growth. These savings are confronted with risk of a volatile rate of return to capital. The uncertainty in the rate of return on capital may lead to distorted economic decisions by the savers, consumers and investors. Depending on the pattern of these behaviors we may observe deviations in the rate of economic growth. This study attempts to estimate the rate of economic growth with uncertainty in the rate of return on capital using standard Brownian motion and the optimized random control to compare it with the planned rate of economic growth. The findings indicate that; if the risk-aversion coefficient is less than one, the average long-term rate of economic growth will be less than the planned growth rate. Further, using the data on Iranian economy for the period 1974-2011, first, a dynamic model, based on SDE, was simulated for GDP by rate of growth %3.85, then, the relationship between capital return volatility (using the EGARCH model) and the rate of economic growth was analyzed. The results are indicative of a negative relationship between growth rate and the fluctuations in the rate of return on capital.
